The Lastest Macroeconomic News
07.10.2012 12:42 The IMF has cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next year
The IMF has cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next year and called on politicians in the eurozone and the US to take “decisive” steps to restore confidence, a German newspaper said. Citing excerpts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook to be released early next week, the Handelsblatt business daily said that the Washington-based body predicted world economic growth of 3.3 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year. In July, the IMF issued forecasts of 3.5 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. The German-language paper quoted the report as saying that the “further cooling of growth in the world economy this year and next goes along with a clear increase in downward risks.” The forecast depends in particular on “whether decisive political steps are taken in the eurozone and the US to stabilize confidence,” the paper quoted the report as saying. The IMF forecasts a shrinking of the eurozone economy of 0.4 percent this year and a small positive growth of 0.2 percent next year. The IMF cut its forecast for China to 8.2 percent, for India to 6 percent and for Brazil to 4 percent, according to Handelsblatt. The fund also saw a “further drop in inflation” given the sluggish global economic output and recommended additional cuts in interest rates to stimulate activity.
21.09.2012 19:15 Russia`s GDP grew 0.1 percent in August 2012 compared with the previous month
Russia`s GDP in August 2012 grew 0.1 percent compared with the previous month, Economy Minister of Russia Andrey Belousov said. In July 2012 Russia`s GDP fell 0.2 percent compared with the previous month and grew 2.6 percent with the same month of the previous year. Russia`s economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, exceeding a prior forecast of 3.4 percent, while consumer prices will advance 7 percent, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said. The ministry raised the inflation forecast for this year from 5 percent to 6 percent, which is still the central bank`s estimate. Consumer prices will rise 5 percent to 6 percent in 2013, a range half a point higher than the ministry`s earlier forecast and Bank Rossii`s goal. Russia`s industrial output is expected to grow 3.6 percent in annual terms in 2012, up from 3.1 earlier forecast, Klepach said. Capital flight from Russia could reach $50-60 billion in 2012, he said, reiterating an earlier estimate maintaining that outflow could exceed $50 billion.
17.09.2012 19:12 US industrial production fell 1.2 percent in August, biggest drop in more than 3 years
U.S. industrial production fell in August by the largest amount in more than three years as factories produced fewer cars and other manufactured goods and Hurricane Isaac triggered shutdowns along the Gulf Coast. Industrial production dropped 1.2 percent last month compared to July, the Federal Reserve said Friday. It was the biggest setback since a 1.7 percent decline in March 2009 when the country was in recession. Manufacturing output, the most important component of industrial production, fell 0.7 percent, led by a 4 percent drop in output at auto plants. Manufacturing helped lift the country out of the Great Recession, but it slowed in the spring as consumers cut back on spending, businesses invested less in machinery and demand for U.S. exports was hurt by a global weakness. Output in mining, which also includes oil and gas production, fell 1.8 percent in August compared to July with much of that weakness attributed to precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of Hurricane Isaac in late August. Output at the nation`s utilities dropped 3.6 percent in August after posting a 1.3 percent increase in July.
06.09.2012 14:42 Euro area GDP down by 0.2% and EU27 GDP down by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2012
GDP decreased by 0.2% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.1% in the EU27 during the second quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2012, growth rates were 0.0% in both zones. Compared with the second quarter of 2011, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27, after 0.0% and +0.1% respectively in the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2012, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU27 (after -0.2% and -0.1% respectively in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU27 (after -1.3% and -0.7%). Exports rose by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU27 (after +0.7% and +0.5%). Imports increased by 0.9% in both zones (after -0.2% in both zones).
30.08.2012 11:14 U.S. Economy Grew At 1.7 Percent Annual Rate In Second Quarter
The U.S. economy fared slightly better than initially thought in the second quarter, but the pace of growth remained too slow to shut the door on further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.7 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate on Wednesday as stronger export growth offset a pull-back in restocking by businesses wary of sluggish domestic demand. That was up from last month`s 1.5 percent estimate and in line with economists` expectations. The economy grew at a 2.0 percent pace in the January-March period. The report also showed that after-tax corporate profits unexpectedly rose at 1.1 percent rate after sinking 8.6 percent in the first quarter. First-quarter economic growth was revised up to show strong export growth, despite slowing global demand. Trade contributed 0.32 percentage point to GDP growth instead of subtracting a third of a percentage point, as previously reported.
16.08.2012 18:25 Euro area and EU27 GDP down by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2012
GDP fell by 0.2% in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27 during the second quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2012, growth rates were 0.0% in both zones. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27 in the second quarter of 2012, after 0.0% and +0.1% respectively in the previous quarter. Euro area annual inflation was 2.4% in July 2012, stable compared to June. A year earlier the rate was 2.6%. Monthly inflation was -0.5% in July 2012. EU annual inflation was 2.5% in July 2012, also stable compared to June. A year earlier the rate was 2.9%. Monthly inflation was -0.4% in July 2012. In June 2012 compared with May 2012, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.9% in the EU27. In May production rose by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. In June 2012 compared with June 2011, industrial production dropped by 2.1% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU27.
29.07.2012 13:38 The United States economy slowed in second quarter of 2012
The United States economy slowed in the second quarter amid weak consumer spending, government cuts and a rise in imports from foreign countries. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation`s economic health, grew at an annual rate of 1.5% from April to June, the Commerce Department said. That`s down significantly from a 2% rate in the first three months of the year. The Commerce Department also released revisions going back to the start of 2009. While the revisions showed that growth in 2010 was weaker than previously thought, 2009 and 2011 were slightly stronger. The second-quarter slowdown was not entirely surprising given consumer spending has been weak recently, the government has been cutting its spending and hiring has been tepid. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney were expecting to see 1.4% growth. The economy needs to grow around 3% a year to bring the unemployment rate down significantly, and since consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the economy, it too needs to grow around 3%. But spending slowed to 1.5%, down from 2.4% in the first quarter, showing that households are continuing to deleverage three years after the recession. Shoppers cut back on buying big-ticket items like automobiles, as well as smaller items like clothing and groceries. As usual, the U.S. also imported more goods and services from foreign countries than it exported, which subtracts from economic growth. Government cuts, especially at the state and local level, also weighed on growth. Spending by businesses remained a small strength. Businesses increased their purchases of equipment and software to a 7.2% annual rate.
22.07.2012 18:38 Russia`s economy may expand at a faster pace than expected this year
Russia`s economy may expand at a faster pace than expected this year, after growth in the first half topped the government`s forecast, the country`s economic development minister Andrei Belousov said. "There are a number of signs that the economy is really growing somewhat faster than we had planned -- the rapid growth of investment and decent figures for the manufacturing industry," Mr. Belousov said. Preliminary data show that gross domestic product increased 3.9% in the second quarter, and 4.4% overall in the first half. Growth slowed somewhat in the second quarter from the 4.9% pace seen in the first. Still, growth over the first six months is above the Moscow`s forecast of 3.4% in all of 2012. "By year end, we expect slightly better growth than predicted, but I don`t want to give an exact estimate at the moment," he added. In June, Mr. Belousov said growth may reach 3.7% or 4% for the year. Mr. Belousov also said that figures released by the Russian Federal Statistics Service that showed industrial production stagnated in June, were simply a seasonal anomaly.
18.07.2012 17:35 The loser countries which lowered billions on passion
The general loss of all states, only for last year, including an offline and online, reached a point in $387 000 000 000. With an enormous separation from other participants of a rating in leaders there is a special Chinese area - Hong Kong. Inhabitants of Hong Kong "lowered" on passion more than $1 000 000 000. But the essence is covered not in the sum, and that the size makes more than 30 % of all Hong Kong losses - a record. For comparison: in America more than $100 000 000 000 are lost, however $4 000 000 000 are the share of online only, and these are 4 % from the general figure. By the way, inhabitants of the USA are unprecedented champions on size of losses for last year. It is simple to count up that more than 25 % of all expenses of inhabitants of the earth for hazardous entertainments drop out to the United States. Any state not in forces even to come nearer to this "achievement". Sweden holds the second place in a rating online of losses. And it, apparently, civilized and modest country. In principle, all know, passion and how many known players in poker came from this state is inherent in how northern countries. As follows, inhabitants of Sweden lost mute big, than $3 000 000 00, from them 23 % are the share of online. Great Britain closes top-3 leaders. Here the sums on an order are more powerful - $17 600 000 000 losses and 21 % from them drop to the Internet. Also there is also an additional rating in which Japan follows America - more than $35 000 000 000, but only 12 % from them at a network. Japanese hold the 4th place in the general rating. According to «H2 GamblingCapital» forecasts in 2015 the general losses can reach a point in $450 000 000 000 and from them about 10 % will drop to online.
17.07.2012 15:03 The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth
The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its forecast for global economic growth and warned that the outlook could dim further if policymakers in the euro zone do not act with enough force and speed to quell their region`s debt crisis. In a mid-year health check of the world economy, the IMF said emerging market nations, long a global bright spot, were being dragged down by the economic turmoil in Europe. It said a drop in exports in these countries would combine with earlier policies meant to prevent overheating and slow growth more sharply than hoped. The IMF shaved its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.9 percent from the 4.1 percent it projected in April, trimming projections for most advanced and emerging economies. It left its 2012 forecast unchanged at 3.5 percent. "Downside risks to this weaker global outlook continue to loom large," the IMF said. "The most immediate risk is still that delayed or insufficient policy action will further escalate the euro area crisis."
The global lender said advanced economies would grow only 1.4 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2013. It also trimmed its forecast for emerging economies, projecting they will expand 5.9 percent in 2013 and 5.6 percent in 2012. Both figures are 0.1 of a percentage point lower than in April. The IMF cut its 2013 growth forecast for the crisis-hit euro zone to 0.7 percent, while maintaining its projection of a 0.3 percent contraction this year. It said it now believes Spain`s economy will shrink both this year and next. The IMF sharply revised down its growth projections for the United Kingdom to 0.2 percent this year and to 1.4 percent in 2013. In April, the fund said the UK economy would expand 0.8 percent in 2012 and 2.0 percent next year.
The IMF said the European Central Bank had room to ease policy further and said officials in emerging economies should stand ready to cope with a drop in trade and increased volatility in capital flows. The IMF cut its 2012 growth forecast for China to 8.0 percent from 8.2 percent, and said it now expects growth of 8.5 percent next year, down from 8.8 percent.
It revised its growth projections for India to 6.1 percent this year from 6.9 percent, and chopped its 2013 forecast to 6.5 percent from 7.3 percent. Meanwhile, Africa`s growth is still seen at a robust 5.4 percent this year and 5.3 percent in 2013, as the region remains relatively insulated from external financial shocks. The IMF said growth in the Middle East will be stronger this year as key oil-producing countries boost production and Libya`s economy rebounds from conflict in 2011, but it held its forecast for next year at 3.7 percent.