The Lastest Macroeconomic News
10.11.2012 12:47 China, India GDPs to Exceed Entire OECD by 2060
The combined economic output of China and India will exceed that of the entire OECD bloc (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) by 2060, the group said in a report published on Friday. China, currently the world`s second biggest economy, is forecast to grow at an average pace of 6.6 percent from now till 2030, and 2.3 percent from 2030 to 2060. The projections for India, the 10th largest, are 6.7 percent and 4 percent, respectively, the OECD said. In comparison, the 34 OECD nations are projected to grow an average of 2.3 percent per year from now till 2030 and 1.7 percent from 2030 to 2060. “The faster growth rates of China and India imply that their combined GDP (gross domestic product) will exceed that of the major seven (G7) OECD economies by around 2025,” the group said in the report. “Strikingly, the combined GDP of these two countries will be larger than that of the entire OECD area, based on today`s membership, in 2060, while it currently amounts to only one-third of it.” Because of this faster economic growth, the two Asian giants will see their per capita income increase more than 7-fold, providing a big lift for the living standards of the average Chinese and Indian, the bloc added. This will be more pronounced in China because of the strong productivity growth and high capital investment compared to India, it added.
07.11.2012 10:39 Russia`s inflation rate fell to 6.5 percent in October from a year earlier
Russia`s price growth unexpectedly eased in October, slowing for the first time in six months and giving policy makers room to sidestep interest-rate increases. The inflation rate fell to 6.5 percent in October from a year earlier, compared with 6.6 percent in September, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said in an e-mailed statement. Prices grew 0.5 percent in the month. Economists projected a 6.7 percent annual rate and a 0.6 percent advance in the month, according to the median estimates of two Bloomberg surveys. Core inflation, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was up 0.6 percent on the month, slightly lower than a 0.7 percent rise in September, and the same as in August. Core inflation, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was up 0.6 percent on the month, slightly lower than a 0.7 percent rise in September, and the same as in August.
25.10.2012 14:49 The United Kingdom`s GDP rose at a 1.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter clip in Q3 2012
The United Kingdom`s gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 1.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter clip in the three months ended in September, according to the latest data just out from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). That was the strongest reading since late 2007 and means that the economy exited from its double-dip recession. The consensus estimate had been for a reading of 0.6%, with some economists anticipating a rate of expansion of as low as 0.4%. Nevertheless, other economists, such as Goldman Sachs Asset Management`s Jim O`Neill had warned of the possibility for such a positive outcome. Versus a year ago GDP remained flat however, even if that was far better than the previous estimate for a contraction of 0.5% year-on-year during quarter two. As well, it must be pointed out that the ONS has indicated that: "it is not possible to quantify the overall impact of the Olympics and indeed some of the activity may have displaced other activity (for example, the comments on watching the Olympics in preference to films or DVDs)." Hence, no downwards adjustements have been made to the data. Nevertheless, the impact may have been quite substantial some economists seem to think.
23.10.2012 16:57 Russia`s GDP Growth Slows to 2.5% on Year in September 2012
Russian economic growth slowed in September partly due to the central bank`s policy of raising interest rates, which has failed to tame inflation and thwarted investment, Deputy Economy Minister Andrey Klepach said Friday "The Bank of Russia`s strict rate policy lowers investment, but doesn`t cool off the rise in consumer lending growth," Klepach said, speaking to reporters as he presented the GDP growth figures for September and the nine months of the year. He said the monetary policy tightening "proved to be unjustified, as it didn`t lower inflation, which is driven by non-monetary factors, but led to a higher cost of borrowing and lower investment activity." The central bank raised interest rates in early September, saying that it is more concerned about inflation than the slowing economic growth. Economists expect the bank to raise rates again by the end of the year. Klepach said Russian GDP growth stood at 2.5% year-on-year in Septemebr and at 0.4% on the previous month. The growth was mostly fueled by burgeoning domestic demand, which was up 4.4% year on year, while salaries were up 6.6%. Exports were mostly supported by the oil and gas sector, while imports stagnated on a monthly basis. Russian GDP growth stood at 3.8% for the first nine months of the year, while full-year growth is forecast at 3.5%. Klepach also noted that he sees a possibility of capital inflows at the end of the year, partly due to the Rosneft (ROSN.RS ) purchase of BP PLC (BP). He denied any knowelege of details of the possible deal.
07.10.2012 12:42 The IMF has cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next year
The IMF has cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next year and called on politicians in the eurozone and the US to take “decisive” steps to restore confidence, a German newspaper said. Citing excerpts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook to be released early next week, the Handelsblatt business daily said that the Washington-based body predicted world economic growth of 3.3 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year. In July, the IMF issued forecasts of 3.5 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. The German-language paper quoted the report as saying that the “further cooling of growth in the world economy this year and next goes along with a clear increase in downward risks.” The forecast depends in particular on “whether decisive political steps are taken in the eurozone and the US to stabilize confidence,” the paper quoted the report as saying. The IMF forecasts a shrinking of the eurozone economy of 0.4 percent this year and a small positive growth of 0.2 percent next year. The IMF cut its forecast for China to 8.2 percent, for India to 6 percent and for Brazil to 4 percent, according to Handelsblatt. The fund also saw a “further drop in inflation” given the sluggish global economic output and recommended additional cuts in interest rates to stimulate activity.
21.09.2012 19:15 Russia`s GDP grew 0.1 percent in August 2012 compared with the previous month
Russia`s GDP in August 2012 grew 0.1 percent compared with the previous month, Economy Minister of Russia Andrey Belousov said. In July 2012 Russia`s GDP fell 0.2 percent compared with the previous month and grew 2.6 percent with the same month of the previous year. Russia`s economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, exceeding a prior forecast of 3.4 percent, while consumer prices will advance 7 percent, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said. The ministry raised the inflation forecast for this year from 5 percent to 6 percent, which is still the central bank`s estimate. Consumer prices will rise 5 percent to 6 percent in 2013, a range half a point higher than the ministry`s earlier forecast and Bank Rossii`s goal. Russia`s industrial output is expected to grow 3.6 percent in annual terms in 2012, up from 3.1 earlier forecast, Klepach said. Capital flight from Russia could reach $50-60 billion in 2012, he said, reiterating an earlier estimate maintaining that outflow could exceed $50 billion.
17.09.2012 19:12 US industrial production fell 1.2 percent in August, biggest drop in more than 3 years
U.S. industrial production fell in August by the largest amount in more than three years as factories produced fewer cars and other manufactured goods and Hurricane Isaac triggered shutdowns along the Gulf Coast. Industrial production dropped 1.2 percent last month compared to July, the Federal Reserve said Friday. It was the biggest setback since a 1.7 percent decline in March 2009 when the country was in recession. Manufacturing output, the most important component of industrial production, fell 0.7 percent, led by a 4 percent drop in output at auto plants. Manufacturing helped lift the country out of the Great Recession, but it slowed in the spring as consumers cut back on spending, businesses invested less in machinery and demand for U.S. exports was hurt by a global weakness. Output in mining, which also includes oil and gas production, fell 1.8 percent in August compared to July with much of that weakness attributed to precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of Hurricane Isaac in late August. Output at the nation`s utilities dropped 3.6 percent in August after posting a 1.3 percent increase in July.
06.09.2012 14:42 Euro area GDP down by 0.2% and EU27 GDP down by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2012
GDP decreased by 0.2% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.1% in the EU27 during the second quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2012, growth rates were 0.0% in both zones. Compared with the second quarter of 2011, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27, after 0.0% and +0.1% respectively in the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2012, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU27 (after -0.2% and -0.1% respectively in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU27 (after -1.3% and -0.7%). Exports rose by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU27 (after +0.7% and +0.5%). Imports increased by 0.9% in both zones (after -0.2% in both zones).
30.08.2012 11:14 U.S. Economy Grew At 1.7 Percent Annual Rate In Second Quarter
The U.S. economy fared slightly better than initially thought in the second quarter, but the pace of growth remained too slow to shut the door on further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.7 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate on Wednesday as stronger export growth offset a pull-back in restocking by businesses wary of sluggish domestic demand. That was up from last month`s 1.5 percent estimate and in line with economists` expectations. The economy grew at a 2.0 percent pace in the January-March period. The report also showed that after-tax corporate profits unexpectedly rose at 1.1 percent rate after sinking 8.6 percent in the first quarter. First-quarter economic growth was revised up to show strong export growth, despite slowing global demand. Trade contributed 0.32 percentage point to GDP growth instead of subtracting a third of a percentage point, as previously reported.
16.08.2012 18:25 Euro area and EU27 GDP down by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2012
GDP fell by 0.2% in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27 during the second quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2012, growth rates were 0.0% in both zones. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27 in the second quarter of 2012, after 0.0% and +0.1% respectively in the previous quarter. Euro area annual inflation was 2.4% in July 2012, stable compared to June. A year earlier the rate was 2.6%. Monthly inflation was -0.5% in July 2012. EU annual inflation was 2.5% in July 2012, also stable compared to June. A year earlier the rate was 2.9%. Monthly inflation was -0.4% in July 2012. In June 2012 compared with May 2012, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.9% in the EU27. In May production rose by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. In June 2012 compared with June 2011, industrial production dropped by 2.1% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU27.