The Lastest Macroeconomic News
02.08.2016 14:08 We need a new Marshall Plan to reinvigorate the global economy
The mounting evidence against the failure of economic policies around the world is becoming difficult to ignore. Canada`s lacklustre performance is only part of the dismal global picture: Europe`s economy is a disaster, as are those of some of the biggest developing countries. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have recently revised growth forecasts downward for 2016 and 2017. In light of IMF reports claiming that austerity policies do more harm than good, the 30-year economic experiment with unfettered free-market policies is coming to an end. Despite repeated promises to bring prosperity to the masses, neoliberalism has proven to be a failure. It has undisputedly benefited the very few and left a disenfranchised, marginalized, angry working class in its wake - and these people are quickly gaining political clout. The failure of fiscal austerity is apparent and has had a tremendous negative impact not only on output and growth, but also on wealth inequalities, wages, unemployment, labour participation, job quality and the environment. The solution often proposed by politicians, technocrats and policy wonks is more austerity, betraying their limited understanding of the real world. Monetary policy has clearly run out of steam.
31.07.2016 14:06 U.S. GDP grows a weak 1.2 percent in second quarter
Growth in the U.S. economy was sluggish again in the spring, dashing expectations for a robust rebound after a tough winter. Stronger consumer spending was offset by weakness in housing construction and a big slowdown in the pace that businesses restocked store shelves. The Commerce Department said Friday that the gross domestic product - the broadest measure of the economy - grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. That was far below the 2.6 percent GDP growth rate that economists had been forecasting. The government also revised down its estimate of first-quarter growth to 0.8 percent from 1.1 percent. The economy has now grown at lackluster rates for three straight quarters. Despite the worse-than-expected performance in the second quarter, analysts said they remained hopeful that the economy will rebound in the second half of this year as some of the headwinds start to abate. Analysts said businesses will likely ramp up inventories in the coming months.
29.07.2016 12:43 Russian Economy Edges Near End of Recession as Contraction Eases
Russia`s economy contracted the least since it slipped into recession at the start of last year as industry and farming added to oil`s biggest quarterly gain since 2009 to steady the world`s biggest energy exporter. Gross domestic product shrank 0.6 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after a decline of 1.2 percent in the previous three months, the Economy Ministry said Thursday in a monthly report on its website. The Federal Statistics Service will publish its first estimate next month. GDP in June slipped 0.5 percent from a year earlier and was flat on a seasonally adjusted basis for the first time since February, according to the ministry.
28.07.2016 13:45 China GDP Sends Troubling Signal on Economic Reform
China maintained its growth pace of 6.7% in the second quarter - a bad sign to those who were looking for indications of economic restructuring. Economists say a slower growth rate in the second quarter over the first quarter`s 6.7% pace would have sent a welcome signal that China was tackling excess industrial production, rising corporate debt and state-owned enterprise reform. Instead, by ramping up government spending and opening the credit taps, Beijing is likely to fuel overcapacity and see private companies crowded out by risk-averse state banks and bloated state companies. This comes despite repeated calls by Prime Minister Li Keqiang and other senior officials to foster innovation, entrepreneurship and structural reform in order to shift the economy from credit-fueled infrastructure to high-tech industry and services.
26.07.2016 19:28 Russian economy recovering slowly
Oil price stability offers some support for economic growth in Russia, though finance officials expects short-term pressures to endure. With oil holding relatively stable, there are few restrictions on meeting inflationary goals by the end of next year, a Russian finance minister said. "Inflation [in 2016] will be in the range of between 5.5 percent and 6 percent," Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin said Monday. "This is how it is going now."Crude oil prices moved from above $100 per barrel in 2014 to below $30 per barrel in early 2016 because the global economy was too slow to take on the excess supply on the market. That price collapse hurt economies like Russia that depend in part on oil for revenue. With oil prices holding relatively stable at around $45 per barrel since May, the Central Bank of Russia said growth was "imminent." By the bank`s estimate, growth of 1.6 percent in gross domestic product is expected next year.
24.07.2016 21:41 Russian economy minister expects positive GDP dynamics in nearest future
Dynamics of Russian GDP will become positive in the nearest future, Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev said this week at the meeting with Japan`s business community. "The situation in the real sector of the economy is improving. While production output declined 3.7% last year, its contraction lowered to 1.2% in the first quarter of 2016 and 0.8 in May. We expect GDP dynamics to become positive in the coming future," minister said. Dynamics of industrial production has already become positive, Ulyukayev said. "This pertains to producing branches and to the processing industry since May of this year. Nevertheless, many problems remain and we need to use the potential definitely and objectively existing in our trade and economic relations," minister added.
22.07.2016 12:18 Global warming set to cost the world economy £1.5 trillion by 2030
Global warming will cost the world economy more than £1.5 trillion a year in lost productivity by 2030 as it becomes too hot to work in many jobs, according to a major new report. In just 14 years` time in India, where some jobs are already shared by two people to allow regular breaks from the heat, the bill will be £340bn a year. China is predicted to experience similar losses, while other countries among the worst affected include Indonesia (£188bn), Malaysia (£188bn) and Thailand (£113bn). The figures were published in a research paper launched at a forum on how to reduce the risks of severe weather events held in Kuala Lumpur by the United Nations University and UN Development Programme.
20.07.2016 18:23 IMF forecasts growth in CIS countries` economies in 2017
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook has improved the forecast for economic growth in the CIS countries up to 0.6 percent and 1.5 percent, in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Earlier, in the April report, the IMF expected the CIS countries` GDP to reduce by an average of 1.1 percent in 2016 and increase by 1.3 percent in 2017. According to the July report, the GDP growth in the CIS countries, excluding Russia, is projected at 1 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017. The IMF expects the Russian economy to contract by 1.2 percent in 2016 and increase by 1 percent in 2017.
18.07.2016 19:48 Oil Must Go to $40 and Stay There to Buy Russia Some Reforms
At an oil price of $40 or below, Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced a flat income tax, built a sovereign wealth fund and delivered speeches to the Bundestag in German. When it was over $100, he fought two wars with neighbors and splashed over $40 billion on a Winter Olympics. Brent crude at $40 is the key threshold for Russia, so low that institutional reforms become unavoidable but high enough to prevent a financial meltdown, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. While more than a decade of booming revenue brought a $2.1 trillion energy windfall -- and with it prosperity the like of which Russia has never seen -- the economy hasn`t grown faster than 5 percent in eight years and has spent the last two in recession. The latest crisis, after oil prices crashed, set the stage for a long-overdue overhaul -- or almost did. "When oil was at $30, there was some commotion, and when it`s near $50, those people who are making decisions calm down," said Evgeny Gontmakher, chief economist at the Institute of Contemporary Development, whose board of trustees is headed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. "Starting real reforms is a risky business."
16.07.2016 13:51 Russia Economy Shows Signs Of Green Shoots
There are budding signs that the worst over in Russia with data showing the federal budget deficit narrowed, and oil revenue helped boost the economy. Indeed, the bottoming out of commodities demand should eventually fuel emerging market economic growth. Lazard Asset Management writes: "While we don`t expect a v-shaped recovery in emerging markets growth, we expect a turnaround driven not only by commodity exporting countries, such as Russia and Indonesia, but also by the base effects of last year`s dismal growth … We are watching the secondary effects of Brexit on global confidence and, more importantly, global growth."