The Lastest Macroeconomic News
17.01.2022 13:01 In 2021, the number of bankruptcies of individuals increased significantly in Russia
In Russia, in the last month of 2021, the number of applications from citizens to the MFC regarding their recognition as bankrupt under a simplified scheme has significantly increased. In total, 1072 applications for out-of-court bankruptcy were recorded out of court. The indicator exceeded the value of November by 90.7%. The increase in requests was somewhat unexpected, since no such values were observed throughout the year. A greater number of bankruptcy filings were recorded only immediately after the simplified procedure became possible in Russia. This was in the fall of 2020. In 2021, only 4.7 thousand applications were submitted, of which a quarter, according to statistics, fell in December. In each of the other months, the number of hits did not exceed a few hundred. Such data was provided by Fedresurs.
10.01.2022 12:03 Russia`s Economy Outlook 2022
The Russian economy recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2021 after its sharpest contraction in eleven years of 3% in 2020. But it may now face headwinds from a possible drop in prices for oil, its main export, and numerous interest rate hikes. The latest Russian Economic Report from the World Bank expects Russian growth to slow in 2022 and 2023 after a rebound of 4.3% GDP growth in 2021. The Bank revised its 2022 GDP growth forecast downwards from 2.8% to 2.4%, while seeing the growth slowing down to 1.8% in 2023. The EBRD also cut Russia`s outlook for 2022 to 3% in November, citing risks from a possible drop in oil prices in 2022 and the impact of the coronavirus variants. The World Bank named the four main risks to the Russian economy: the pandemic, an unexpected surge of inflation, international sanctions, and, in the long term, green energy transition. Low rates of vaccination in Russia make the pandemic a particularly large threat to the economy. As followed by bne IntelliNews, the Russian economy grew 4.3% year on year during the third quarter of 2021, but the post-coronavirus recovery was almost over by the autumn.
16.12.2021 12:14 Russian inflation in November: mounting pressure in durables is the key concern
November CPI data brought both positive and negative news. Stabilization of local food price growth and the one-off nature of the spike in services brought some relief, but mounting upward price pressure in non-food products and high core CPI are causes for concern. The CPI trend is testing the upper border of the Bank of Russia`s base case. Russian CPI picked up from 8.1% YoY in October to 8.4% YoY in November, broadly in line with what was suggested by the weekly data. According to Bank of Russia data released earlier, higher inflationary pressure is to be seen amid stable, but elevated, houiseholds` inflation expectations. There are several takeaways from the data, both positive and negative.
04.12.2021 16:14 Egypt`s Economy Grew by 9.8% In Q1 FY 2021-22
Egypt`s economy grew by 9.8% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2021-22 that began in July, compared with 0.7% in the same period last year, Minister of Planning and Economic Development Hala al-Saeed said. Egypt expects a GDP growth of 5.5-5.7% in FY 2021-22 that ends in June, she added. Her remarks were made during a cabinet session chaired by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, during which she reviewed the initial indicators of the country`s economic performance in the first quarter. The restaurant and hotel sector recorded the highest quarterly growth rate of about 181.8 percent, reflecting the remarkable recovery from the coronavirus repercussions. The telecommunications, manufacturing and construction sectors registered a growth rate of 16.3%, about 15.2%, and 10.5%, respectively.
29.11.2021 14:49 Russia`s industrial production growth accelerated to 7.1% in October
Russia`s industrial production growth accelerated to 7.1% year on year in October from 6.9% in September, which meant output was up 5.0% y/y in 10M21, RosStat reported on November 25. In seasonally adjusted terms, industrial production was up 0.8% m/m in October following 1.8% growth in September. The acceleration in y/y growth was driven mainly by the mining and quarrying sector, which grew 10.9% versus 9.0% in September, driven by an increase in the production of oil and gas (up 8.9%), coal (9.1%) and other natural resources (7.8%), as well as an increase in associated services (up 30.1%). At the same time, growth slowed in manufacturing (to 4.5% from 5.1%), the electricity, gas and heat sector (to 8.0% from 9.6%), and the water and waste management segment (to 6.3% from 11.7%). Within the manufacturing sector, growth remained strong in categories including beverages (13.6% y/y), paper and paper products (9.4%), oil products (11.9%), drugs and medicine (29%), machinery and equipment (17.2%), and transport equipment excluding cars (18.7%). Other segments registered a clear slowdown, including metals (output was flat y/y), metal products (up 2.7%), computers and electronics (down 12.6%), and cars (down 15.8%).
18.11.2021 19:48 The Russian economy grew 4.3% during the third quarter
The Russian economy grew 4.3% y/y during the third quarter, but the post-coronavirus recovery is almost over. The result was close to Sova Capital’s expectation (+4.2% year on year) but below Bloomberg consensus (+4.5% y/y), according to RosStat`s preliminary GDP growth estimate for 3Q21 released on November 17. “The solid 3Q21 figures were likely due to the still strong but waning momentum in retail and wholesale trade, manufacturing, and freight and passenger turnover,” Sova Capital said in a note. At the same time, mining and quarrying along with the financial sector likely did better than in 2Q21, Sova Capital reports. “On our estimates, the economy added just 0.15% SA quarter on quarter in 3Q21 after adding 2.1% SA q/q in 2Q21. The non-working period and partial lockdowns should lead to lower GDP growth in 4Q21 than previously expected, and our forecast is for growth of 1.7% y/y. Our outlook for Russia`s FY21 growth is 3.8%, which is lower than the estimates from CBR (+4-4.5% y/y) and Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development (+4.2% y/y),” the bank said in a note.
08.11.2021 12:18 Inflation in Russia is accelerating and is not yet in line with forecasts
Russian CPI jumped 0.7 percentage points to 8.1% year-on-year in October, exceeding market expectations. The good news is the volatile food segment accounted for 83% of the acceleration. The bad news is that weekly CPI needs to slow down from the current 0.21% to 0.09-0.15% to fit into Bank of Russia's fresh year-end forecast. This looks too optimistic. Russian CPI picked up from 7.4% YoY in September to 8.1% YoY in October, exceeding the market consensus but meeting our expectations. Looking into the numbers, we see both good and bad news.
05.11.2021 14:37 Russia`s service PMI stumbles as fresh wave of the coronavirus epidemic sweeps the country
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Russia Services Business Activity Index registered 48.8 in October, down from 50.5 in September, to signal the fastest contraction in Russian service sector business activity since December 2020. The contraction in the services PMI was offset to some extent by a gain in the manufacturing PMI released a few days ago that saw the index rise to 51.6 in October, up from 49.8 in September; the first improvement in the health of the Russian manufacturing sector for five months. Combined the IHS Markit Russia Composite PMI Output Index almost posted a net gain, but fell just shy of breaking above the 50 no-change mark of 50 to post 49.5 in October, down from 50.5 in September. The combined index puts Russia`s private sector business activity back into overall contraction as the post coronacrisis bounce back comes to an end.
03.11.2021 16:42 Russian retail sales surge 5.6% in September on the back of real income growth, savings spending
Retail sales in Russia surged 5.6% year on year in September of 2021, accelerating from a 5.3% increase in the previous month, above market expectations of a 3.8% rise. On a monthly basis, retail sales declined 1.5%, after a 3.4% gain in August. Retail sales turnover added +5.3% y/y in August, with non-food advancing +7.5% y/y and food being up +2.8% y/y. The August print exceeded the Bloomberg consensus estimate of +4.9% y/y. Private consumption recovered strongly in the first half of the year, with seasonally adjusted consumption in the second quarter of the year being the highest ever recorded. This was influenced by e.g. recovery of savings accumulated during corona periods to consumption. Russia`s seasonally adjusted GDP grew by as much as 3.5% in the second quarter from the first quarter. Economic activity has thus clearly risen above pre-pandemic levels.
29.09.2021 14:42 Russia`s Ministry of Economic Development ups GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 4.2%
In preparation for the 2022-24 Russian federal budget, the Ministry of Economic Development released new predictions for macroeconomic indicators from 2021-24, BMB Russia reports. In its forecast, the Ministry predicts GDP growth of 4.2% for 2021, up from the previous forecast of 3.8%, and 3% for 2022-24. However, inflation is expected to get worse. The Ministry expects the growth in consumer prices to be 5.8% in 2021, the highest in five years. Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov attributes this to global inflation, the disruption of value chains and poor Russian harvests. The ministry`s inflation prediction is still lower than that of the CBR, which forecasts CPI at 5.7-6.2%. The ministry`s predictions are also at odds with a recent OECD report that puts Russia`s economic growth at 2.7% and inflation at 6.1% for 2021. This is the third version of the forecast by the Ministry this year. “The main thing that served as the basis for revising the forecast is the fact that the Russian economy recovered faster than we had planned,” a representative said. President also recently remarked that Russia has overcome the economic downturn due to the pandemic and that the economy has recovered.