The Lastest Macroeconomic News
13.03.2017 00:05 Russian inflation falls below 5% for the first time since Soviet days
Russia`s consumer price inflation has dropped below 5% for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union more than a quarter of a century ago. Inflation was 4.6% y/y in February, according to Rosstat, down from 5% in January and in line with the Bloomberg consensus for the month. The result will please the government as Russia is well on track to hit the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) target of getting to 4% inflation, maybe as soon as the end of this year. In broad terms, the 4% inflation target is the cornerstone of the government`s plan to reenergise the Russian economy. Once inflation gets down to the sort of levels of a “normal” country, the authorities are hoping this will kickstart borrowing, investment and spending as the cost of money will be low enough for long-term planning.
11.03.2017 19:03 Why Russia is far less threatening than it seems
Should the United States - and the West - worry that Russian power is on the rise? You might think so, given the extent to which Russian interference in this year`s elections dominates U.S. news. But in fact, Russian power is brittle. Masked by the country`s meddling in Western politics, invasion of Ukraine and support for Syria`s Bashar al-Assad, Russia is facing profound societal and economic problems. The country`s aging population and economic weakness are at odds with its military spending and global aspirations. In fact, domestic issues overlooked by the regime will soon restrict Putin`s ability to adventure abroad and project military force. Put simply, Russia lacks the resources to fund its great power pretensions.
09.03.2017 18:45 The 3 Biggest Risks Haunting the Global Economy
The stock market could crash. Protectionist trade policies might backfire leading to job losses. Or housing booms in some countries could go bust. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) looked into its crystal ball Tuesday, and warned that while the global economy is slowly improving now, these are some of the shocks that could derail the still-fragile recovery in the not-too-distant future. The OECD never mentions President Donald Trump by name it is report, but the Paris-based organization made it clear it does not endorse his “America First” trade proposals, or the broader protectionist zeitgeist sweeping across the United States, Britain, and Europe. “A roll-back of existing trade openness would be costly,” the OECD warned, noting an increase in trade barriers in the major global trading economies like the United States, Europe, and China could adversely impact GDP and jobs in those places. The warning comes with a chart, showing about 10% of American jobs are linked to global trade. In the United Kingdom, that number is over 20%, and in Germany, it`s near 30%.
06.03.2017 20:15 5 diseases that kill 16M people, cost the world economy $2.35T annually
Five non-communicable diseases that kill 16 million people around the world each year are projected to take a $47 trillion total toll on worldwide economic activity over the next 20 years, according to a report from the World Economic Forum and Willis Towers Watson. However, the burden of these five diseases could be significantly reduced by improving individual behavior and consumer choice, according to the report. The study suggests the healthcare ecosystem needs to shift to prevention over treatment when it comes to population health management.
03.03.2017 18:32 Global Economy: Two percent inflation. A call to action?
U.S. President Donald Trump`s address to Congress may make the most headlines, but inflation readings of 2 percent could prove more significant economic events next week - a call to action perhaps in America and a important milestone in Europe. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI), published mid-Feb, has already shown prices rising at their fastest monthly pace in nearly four years in January and a year-on-year rate of 2.5 percent. However, the Fed has often emphasized the inflation measure for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) because of its wider range of goods and services. And that too is now seen climbing to 2 percent on its release on Wednesday. Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, sees the release as pivotal, nudging more Federal Open Market Committee members, who next meet on March 14-15, to favor action as the excuse of low inflation disappears.
01.03.2017 19:32 India Q3 GDP grows 7% despite demonetization, analysts frown
India`s economic growth slowed marginally to 7% in October-December from 7.4% in the previous quarter, government data showed on Tuesday, raising eyebrows among experts and economists. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) also retained the advanced estimate for 2016-17 at 7.1%, which is lower than 7.9% of 2015-16, but higher than what most economists have predicted in view of the crippling effect that demonetisation has had on consumption and investment. The Q3 GDP growth estimate beat analysts` expectation of 6.4%. Some had even projected the growth to slip below 6%. Analysts point to flaws in the GDP calculations saying it does not factor in the informal sector, which was the worst hit after the government scrapped Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes in a surprise announcement on November 8.
26.02.2017 20:05 Euro zone economy: real recovery or another Sirens` song?
Over the years, euro zone economic growth has been a bit like the Sirens in Homer`s Odyssey: singing a song of promise, only to end up pulling you onto the rocks. Will it be different this time? The strong growth registered in numerous data releases and surveys at the beginning of this year has surprised many. One eye-opening example was the release of flash purchasing managers indices for France, Germany and the euro zone on Feb 21. Of nine indexes, eight registered growth and six did so at a higher level than any economist polled by Reuters had imagined. Not surprisingly, economists and policy-makers are now looking for firm proof that the euro zone`s apparent rebound this year is sustainable, as well as noting a variety of potentially destructive economic and political hazards ahead.
24.02.2017 10:02 Increasing female employment rates will boost the GDP in OCED countries by 12%
The Global Women Principal PwC has released its `Women in Work Index` research stating the progress made and emphasizing the need to make more attempts in increasing female employment rates. The research highlights the ups and downs in the Index across OCED (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Gradually, OCED maintained the legacy of trotting towards progress; this year`s Index states. It is rapidly progressing towards greater female economic empowerment. The Nordic countries Iceland, Sweden and Norway occupy the top position in the Women in Work Index in terms of gender pay gap. Some very developed countries Korea, Japan and Germany lags behind in this list; having a very high pay gap. By fully closing the gender pay gap, we could increase the female earnings by $2 trillion; an increase of 23%.
21.02.2017 13:52 GDP growth is vital for China
The Chinese economy could be the world`s most perplexing phenomenon. Although a number of experts and columnists have repeatedly forecast that China`s economy would collapse, it has grown steadily to become the second largest in the world in terms of GDP and is set to overtake the United States` economy to become the largest. Chinese people have now become familiar with the China-collapse rhetoric, from the collapse of the Chinese society as a whole two decades ago to the more recent forecast of a financial and economic crisis triggered by its high debt levels and the bursting of real estate price bubbles. Contrary to such projections, the country`s economy has been resilient since the reform and opening-up were launched over 35 years ago.
19.02.2017 18:23 Where next for the world economy?
Just when you thought the future looked somewhat predictable, 2016 throws up a couple of major surprises. It seemed as though the world was on a path towards increasing globalization which would eventually see national governments replaced with political unions. Similarly, climate change was becoming more central to economic decisions, and a world where fossil fuels were no longer used did not seem all that far away. However, the UK`s decision to leave the EU and the election of Donald Trump as US President could change what appeared to be a relatively certain path for the world economy. Here`s how things could now work out.