The Lastest Macroeconomic News

28.03.2017 13:19 OPEC be warned! Russia seeing oil at $40 does not bode well for crude market

Perhaps the Bank of Russia knows something the world doesn`t. As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies met for a review of their production cuts last weekend, the central bank of the world`s biggest energy exporter was hunkering down for years of oil near $40 a barrel. While analysts in a Bloomberg survey see the price of benchmark Brent crude -- which trades at a small premium to Russia`s Urals export blend -- rising 16 per cent from current levels by the end of the year, oil`s 10 per cent decline in March alone amid supply woes is making the market nervous. Russia, a key partner in the deal and a participant in the talks in Kuwait, might only add to those jitters.

26.03.2017 20:53 Russian government revises GDP growth estimate higher

As crude oil prices recover from last year`s historic decline, the Russian finance minister said the outlook for gains in gross domestic product have improved. Russia last year was producing oil at or near post-Soviet highs. According to economists at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russian oil companies were winning out because a decline in the value of the ruble made it economic to produce more oil for more revenue. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the ruble was overvalued at the moment. Looking ahead, growth in gross domestic production should settle between 1.5 percent and 2 percent, an improvement from previous estimates. "On the whole we agree that the economy will be growing faster than initially expected," he was quoted by Russian news agency Tass as saying. "Previously the outlook for this year was 0.6 percent."

25.03.2017 11:58 World Bank trims Indonesia 2017 GDP forecast

The World Bank has revised down its growth forecast for Indonesia this year a touch, blaming global uncertainty and warning that rising inflation could crimp consumption in Southeast Asia`s biggest economy. In a quarterly report released on Wednesday, the bank projected Indonesia`s growth at 5.2% in 2017, down from its previous 5.3% estimate. Growth should be supported by higher private consumption, as well as investment and exports as global economic growth improves and commodity prices recover, the report said. However, consumption may be pressured by rising inflation due to price increases in government-set prices, such as electricity tariffs. "Should inflation remain elevated longer than expected, consumer spending may be dampened, resulting in lower output growth," the report said. "In addition, Bank Indonesia may be compelled to tighten monetary policy, which would also cool investment growth." The World Bank expects 2017 inflation to be 4.3%, up from last year`s 3.5%. The central bank target for 2017 is 3-5%.

23.03.2017 12:25 Global economy could get $19T boost from Paris Climate Agreement

Attaining the goals outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement would not only have the effect of slowing global warming but also boost the global economy by US$19 trillion. According to a report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency on Monday, achieving the landmark goal of limiting global temperature rise to less than 2 C, as stated in the deal, would increase the world`s economy by 0.8 per cent by 2050. Rapid technological advancements in renewables are indeed taking place, and in many circumstances renewables are becoming the cheapest source of energy, a trend that is likely to continue in the future, said the authors of the report, which was produced for the German government in anticipation of upcoming G20 climate talks over the coming months. The first of these discussions is set to take place this week. Such changes can be a driver for the economic impacts of decarbonization to become positive.

21.03.2017 12:12 WTTC: Tourism supports 1 in 10 jobs, outpacing global economy for 6th consecutive year

Travel & Tourism generated 1 in 10 of the world`s jobs in 2016 as the sector grew by 3.3%, outpacing the global economy for the sixth year in a row, reads a new report by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). WTTC`s Economic Impact Report 2017, which is conducted in conjunction with Oxford Economics, researches the economic impact of Travel & Tourism impact on global level, for 25 regions, and 185 countries. According to the research, Travel & Tourism grew by 3.3% in 2016, generating US$7.6 trillion worldwide, which is 10.2% of global GDP when the direct, indirect and induced impacts are taken into account. The sector supported a total of 292 million jobs in 2016, which is 1 in 10 of all jobs in the world. Additionally, global visitor exports, which is money spent by foreign visitors, accounted for 6.6% of total world exports, and almost 30% of total world services exports.

19.03.2017 11:57 India, Russia hold talks to boost economic cooperation

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev today held discussions with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on ways to boost economic cooperation including in the energy and diamond processing sectors. "The two leaders discussed wide-ranging issues regarding India-Russia economic relations. They agreed that the privileged strategic partnership between India and Russia is based on long-standing and time-tested ties, is very deep and extends to all spheres of mutual interest," an External Affairs Ministry release said. They also discussed issues related to further strengthening of trade and investment cooperation between India and the regions of the resource-rich Russian Far East, it said. Swaraj specifically stressed the growing mutual beneficial ties between India and Russia in the energy sector, particularly in the Russian Far East, it said.

17.03.2017 10:15 Global middle-class growth will drive the world economy

Today, the global middle class, numbering about 3.2 billion in 2016, may be considerably larger by about 500 million people - than when I first attempted to estimate their size seven years ago. Asian households, in particular, are now thought to be much richer, relatively speaking, than before. Indeed, the next decade could see a faster expansion of the middle class than at any other time in history. Within a few years, a majority of the world`s population could have middle-class or rich lifestyles for the first time ever. The most dynamic segment of the global middle-class market is at the lower end of the scale, among new entrants with comparatively low per capita spending.

15.03.2017 13:35 Business Roundtable CEOs Express Pessimism on GDP

The first-quarter survey of chief executive officers who are members of the Business Roundtable showed pessimism about U.S. gross domestic product growth for 2017. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index included a GDP forecast of 2.2% for this year, on par or below some other major outlooks. Recently, the International Monetary Fund pegged a forecast of U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% for 2017 as part of its World Economic Outlook (January edition). The Wall Street Journal survey of economists put the figure at 2.2%. The World Bank`s Global Economic Prospects figure for 2017 is 2.2% as well. Several individual economists are more optimistic. David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, has forecast a U.S. expansion of 2.4% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018. The Congressional Budget Office`s comparable number is 2.4% for this year.

13.03.2017 00:05 Russian inflation falls below 5% for the first time since Soviet days

Russia`s consumer price inflation has dropped below 5% for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union more than a quarter of a century ago. Inflation was 4.6% y/y in February, according to Rosstat, down from 5% in January and in line with the Bloomberg consensus for the month. The result will please the government as Russia is well on track to hit the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) target of getting to 4% inflation, maybe as soon as the end of this year. In broad terms, the 4% inflation target is the cornerstone of the government`s plan to reenergise the Russian economy. Once inflation gets down to the sort of levels of a normal country, the authorities are hoping this will kickstart borrowing, investment and spending as the cost of money will be low enough for long-term planning.

11.03.2017 19:03 Why Russia is far less threatening than it seems

Should the United States - and the West - worry that Russian power is on the rise? You might think so, given the extent to which Russian interference in this year`s elections dominates U.S. news. But in fact, Russian power is brittle. Masked by the country`s meddling in Western politics, invasion of Ukraine and support for Syria`s Bashar al-Assad, Russia is facing profound societal and economic problems. The country`s aging population and economic weakness are at odds with its military spending and global aspirations. In fact, domestic issues overlooked by the regime will soon restrict Putin`s ability to adventure abroad and project military force. Put simply, Russia lacks the resources to fund its great power pretensions.

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