The Lastest Macroeconomic News
15.04.2017 14:17 Trade Recovery Expected in 2017 and 2018
Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to rebound this year from its tepid performance in 2016, but only if the global economy recovers as expected and governments pursue the right policy mix. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is forecasting that global trade will expand by 2.4 percent in 2017. However, as deep uncertainty about near-term economic and policy developments raise the forecast risk, this figure is placed within a range of 1.8 percent to 3.6 percent. In 2018, the WTO is forecasting trade growth between 2.1 percent and four percent. The unpredictable direction of the global economy in the near term and the lack of clarity about government action on monetary, fiscal and trade policies raises the risk that trade activity will be stifled. A spike in inflation leading to higher interest rates, tighter fiscal policies and the imposition of measures to curtail trade could all undermine higher trade growth over the next two years.
14.04.2017 10:41 Russia`s economy needs a recipe for growth
The Russian economy has hauled itself out of the recession – Rosstat, Russia`s statistics agency, the Economy Ministry, and the Central Bank all think so. Economic decline began in the first quarter of 2015 and according to Rosstat, continued for seven consecutive quarters. It`s a shared approach that a recession generally ends after economic growth is recorded for two consecutive quarters. That`s why, considering the fairly poor results registered during the first two months of this year, it`s still too early to affirm with confidence just how well the economy is recovering. However, there are no reliable grounds to show that Russia`s economic decline is continuing. The most fitting description would be “stagnation.
12.04.2017 20:43 OPEC Revises 2017 World GDP Growth Up to 3.3% Amid Rebalancing Oil Market
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries` (OPEC) forecast for global economic growth this year was revised upwards by 0.1 percent to 3.3 percent because of a more balanced oil market, the cartel said Wednesday in a report. "The momentum in global economic growth has been improving resulting in an upward revision in the 2017 forecast to now stand at 3.3% from 3.2% previously, while growth for 2016 remains at 3.0%… This upward revision is also supported by a more balanced oil market, a key factor buttressing output levels in oilproducing nations and leading to rising investments in the energy sector," the cartel`s March report read. The more balanced oil market has also helped to lift inflation to healthier levels, provide support to central banks to normalise interest rates and boost world trade in volume and value, according to OPEC.
10.04.2017 22:06 India`s share in global economy estimated at about 2.83%
India`s share in the global economy is about 2.83 per cent, with its gross domestic product (GDP) estimated at $2. 095 trillion (at 2015 price of the dollar) against the world GDP of $74 trillion, according to the World Bank Group. According to the World Bank Group, assuming a simple linear extrapolation of growth rates and assuming India`s GDP grows at 8 per cent in US dollar terms, and assuming that France and the UK grow at 2.5 per cent in US dollar terms, India`s contribution to the global economy may surpass that of France in 2018 and that of the United Kingdom in 2021. World Bank has used the GDP at purchaser prices, which is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It has been calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
08.04.2017 18:27 Russian markets fall as Syria strike dashes hopes of thaw with West
The Russian currency and stock markets fell on Friday as American military action in Syria dashed hopes for a better relationship between Washington and Moscow. President Trump launched a military strike on a Syrian government airbase overnight in response to a chemical attack on civilians earlier this week. Russia denounced the attack, promised to bolster Syrian air defenses, and sent a warship to the Mediterranean. The Russian ruble fell 1% against the U.S. dollar, while the main Russian stock market index dropped 1.8%, despite gains in the price of oil -- the foundation of the Russian economy.
06.04.2017 10:35 Putin`s illiberal stagnation in Russia offers a valuable lesson
Today, a quarter-century after the cold war`s end, the west and Russia are again at odds. This time, at least on one side, the dispute is more transparently about geopolitical power, not ideology. The west has supported in a variety of ways democratic movements in the post-Soviet region, hardly hiding its enthusiasm for the various “colour” revolutions that have replaced longstanding dictators with more responsive leaders – though not all have turned out to be the committed democrats they pretended to be. Too many countries of the former Soviet bloc remain under the control of authoritarian leaders, including some, like the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who have learned how to maintain a more convincing facade of elections than their communist predecessors. They sell their system of “illiberal democracy” on the basis of pragmatism, not some universal theory of history. These leaders claim they are simply more effective at getting things done.
04.04.2017 20:39 Global productivity slowdown risks creating instability, warns IMF
The head of the International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning that living standards will fall around the world unless governments take urgent action to increase productivity by investing in education, cutting red tape and incentivizing research and development. Christine Lagarde used a speech in Washington to tell policymakers they could not simply wait for innovation to drive up productivity growth and help living standards recover from the legacy of the global financial crisis. She highlighted a poor global record on productivity growth in recent years and said IMF analysis suggested GDP in advanced economies would be about 5% higher today if the pre-crisis trend had continued for total factor productivity growth – a broad measure of what goes into production, such as research spending.
02.04.2017 22:50 Russian Economy Crawled to Growth With Recession in Rearview
Russia`s economy returned to growth at the end of 2016, turning the page on seven consecutive quarters of contraction that laid waste to the middle class after oil prices crashed. Gross domestic product gained 0.3 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter after a decline of 0.4 percent in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Service said Friday. That matched the median of 11 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. GDP shrank 0.2 percent in the full year, the statistics service said, confirming its first reading. The challenge for the world`s biggest energy exporter now is for its recovery to gain traction as consumer demand continues to sag and the outlook for oil remains dim. Russia may now be at a turning point as capital-intensive businesses come to life after three years of declining investment that followed the collapse in crude prices. GDP may grow as much as 2 percent this year, according to officials.
30.03.2017 11:47 Here`s how Trump`s presidency is impacting Russian markets
Donald Trump`s election was initially said to be positive for the Russian economy, but less than 100 days into his presidency, analysts are concerned geopolitical tensions could hurt the U.S. and Russian economies. In a note in November, Germany`s Deutsche Bank said Russia should be a clear beneficiary of Trump`s policies and a stabilization is within reach. "The U.S. president can remove sanctions by a National Security Waiver. We therefore see relative value trade opportunities in ruble, move to over-weight sovereign credit and selected corporates," the bank said. However, with tensions between Russia and the United States rising, many analysts feel this may start to affect growth in both economies.
28.03.2017 13:19 OPEC be warned! Russia seeing oil at $40 does not bode well for crude market
Perhaps the Bank of Russia knows something the world doesn`t. As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies met for a review of their production cuts last weekend, the central bank of the world`s biggest energy exporter was hunkering down for years of oil near $40 a barrel. While analysts in a Bloomberg survey see the price of benchmark Brent crude -- which trades at a small premium to Russia`s Urals export blend -- rising 16 per cent from current levels by the end of the year, oil`s 10 per cent decline in March alone amid supply woes is making the market nervous. Russia, a key partner in the deal and a participant in the talks in Kuwait, might only add to those jitters.