The Lastest Macroeconomic News

27.11.2017 15:34 India on track to become world`s third largest economy

India will emerge as the world`s third largest economy, surpassing Japan by 2028, on the back of rising savings rates, financial maturity and increasing incomes, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said. "We believe India stands out among the large emerging economies as having the best prospects for strong growth over the next decade. In 2028, we estimate it will surpass Japan in nominal GDP terms to emerge as the world`s third-largest economy," said Indranil Sen Gupta, economist at BofA Merrill Lynch. Although India`s GDP size was just $2.3 trillion, a fraction of China`s $11.4 trillion and $18.6 trillion of the US, in 2016, the country could already outpace Japan as the third largest in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms at $8.7 trillion. Global management consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers has forecast that India would outpace the US to emerge as the second largest economy in PPP terms by 2040 to $30 trillion from $8.7 trillion in 2016, while the US will grow from $18.6 trillion to $28.3 trillion.

24.11.2017 12:11 In 2018, the MFI market in Russia will be reduced by 6 times

According to the newspaper Daily, in 2018 there will be a large-scale reduction in the number of MFIs in Russia. Such a trend, according to analysts, can be observed against the background of the destruction of the entire banking system by the actions of the Central Bank. Recall that in 2016, the Central Bank excluded more than a third of participants from the register of microfinance organizations. And this trend has been preserved this year. For example, the day before yesterday eight more MFIs were excluded from the register, and the oldest of them worked on the market for more than 6 years.

22.11.2017 23:19 Britain crashes out of world`s top 5 economies

Britain has officially abandoned its claim to be the world`s fifth largest economy. Treasury chief Philip Hammond acknowledged the slide on Wednesday, noting the new ranking in a series of statements meant to highlight the economy`s strength. "Britain is the world`s sixth largest economy," Hammond said in his closely-watched budget speech. While there are several ways to measure the size of an economy, the U.K. Treasury pointed to GDP forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund in October to back up his statement. The numbers show that France will narrowly squeak ahead of Britain in the group`s 2017 ranking of global economies, with its advantage predicted to widen considerably in 2018. This year will be the first time since 2013 that France has topped the U.K. in the ranking, according to the IMF.

20.11.2017 20:32 Russian economy expands 1.6 pct in January-September

Russia`s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.6 percent year-on-year in the first nine months, the country`s official statistic service Rosstat said Monday, citing preliminary data. Russia`s GDP declined 0.4 percent year-on-year in the same period compared a 1.8 percent rise in the third quarter this year, Rosstat said in a release. Russia`s central bank currently puts the country`s GDP growth at 1.7-2.2 percent for the year of 2017, while the Russian Economy Ministry expects it to be 2.1 percent.

17.11.2017 17:08 Tuberculosis to cost world economy $1 trillion by 2030

Tuberculosis will cost the world economy close to $1 trillion in lost economic output by 2030, unless countries step up efforts to fight the disease, according to a report launched today by the Global TB Caucus, a group of over 2,300 parliamentarians from 130 countries. The disease cost the world more than $600 billion from 2000 to 2015. The study launches ahead of the first World Health Organization Global Ministerial Conference on Ending TB, which will take place in Moscow on November 16-17. The event will convene 1,000 participants from 100 states, including 74 ministers of health from the top 40 highest TB and multi-drug-resistant TB burden countries. Leaders from U.N. agencies, civil society, the private sector, and donors will also be in attendance. The conference will result in a ministerial declaration with commitments to accelerate efforts in ending TB and will inform the first ever U.N. high-level meeting on TB in 2018.

15.11.2017 16:34 Russia Feels GDP Growth Limits Again

Russia`s economy grew by 1.8 per cent in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, a marked slowdown from the 2.5 per cent the Federal Statistics Service had reported for the second quarter. The agency`s first estimate for the September quarter does not include any detail, but monthly data published earlier indicates that the deceleration was due to weaker growth in industrial production. In a Bloomberg survey, economists forecast a reading of 2 per cent. In late 2016, the country emerged from a two-year recession which had been sparked by the drop in global oil prices and western sanctions. The Russian government expects gross domestic product for the full year of 2017 to increase by at least 2 per cent. Industrial production had been the first indicator to recover, but it slowed to 1.2 per cent year-on-year in the three months to September 30 from 3.8 per cent in the preceding quarter. Most other indicators, however, point to a broader recovery ahead. Retail sales, which only stopped shrinking in the second quarter, picked up pace in the September quarter, and construction was flat for the first time after more than a year of contraction.

13.11.2017 14:54 World economic outlook for 2017 and beyond

The year 2017 can be chalked down as a prosperous one for the world economy. Wherever we live, as we celebrate the end of a good year, we also welcome the incoming year, which, by all indications, we hope, will be a better one. The most common measures of economic health viz. output, inflation, employment, and cost of borrowing, all portend that 2018 might be one of the best in this decade, and perhaps, even since the dawn of this century. The change in mood among the forecasters is evident if we compare the state of uncertainty at the beginning of this year with the prevailing optimism. The election of President Donald Trump, with his promises of reform and radical change in the global commitments of the US, including the Paris Climate Accord, NAFTA, and TPP, was initially viewed with disquiet. This, along with the expected turmoil as EU and UK began their much anticipated negotiations over the Brexit pullout, led to a period of wait and see in financial and policy circles. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found itself scratching its head as evident from its July 2017 pronouncement which lowered its forecast for US growth to 2.1 percent for 2017 and 2018 from earlier projections of 2.3 percent and 2.5 percent. But as soon as it was clear that Wall Street was happy with the moves made by the new administration, there was a surge in business investment, fuelled by executive orders from the Trump administration, robust consumer spending, low interest rates, and exports boosted by a weaker dollar. The US economy grew at three percent last quarter (July-September) and business spending on new equipment went up by an annual rate of 8.65.

11.11.2017 19:13 Automation Could Increase Global GDP by More Than $1 Trillion

Technological advances such as automation could increase global GDP by more than $1.1 trillion over the next 10-15 years, according to a new report from analysts at JPMorgan Asset Management seen exclusively by Business Insider. The asset management arm of banking giant JPMorgan believes that technological advances across all areas of society could lead to big productivity gains, which in turn will likely boost economic growth. Technology will affect economic growth rates and capital market returns in ways that are difficult to foresee, the report, authored by a team of strategists headed by John Bilton, JPMAM`s Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy, argues. Workforce automation and AI have the potential to deliver significant overall productivity gains, and some nations facing growth challenges from aging populations could see an additional boost to trend growth rates.

08.11.2017 23:07 Unbalanced global growth

It is only too obvious that global capitalism is stagnant and relatively unstable. But nonetheless there is much hype currently being created around the recent recovery in some major advanced economies. In some cases, the desperation to suggest that economic activity is picking up has even relied on the fact that some previous projections are being slightly revised upwards. Consider, for example, the latest World Economic Outlook of the IMF (October 2017): The pickup in growth projected in the April 2017 World Economic Outlook (WEO) is strengthening. The global growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 3.6 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively 0.1 percentage point higher in both years than in the April and July forecasts. Notable pickups in investment, trade, and industrial production, coupled with strengthening business and consumer confidence, are supporting the recovery. It may seem a bit weird to celebrate a global rate of growth of output of 3.6 per cent when that is exactly the same as the rate achieved in 2014, when the IMF itself was so concerned about the secular stagnation that its managing director, Christine Lagarde, described as the new normal. But perhaps we are simply supposed to be relieved that this new normal persists and has not yet dissolved further or erupted into a crisis.

07.11.2017 23:13 EBRD lifts growth forecasts for Eastern Europe, Turkey and Russia

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development sharply raised growth forecasts on Tuesday for the 37 countries in which it operates, saying improving exports, a revival in investment and firmer commodity prices were supporting a broad upswing. Average economic growth for the group, which ranges from Morocco to Mongolia, is now expected to hit 3.3 percent this year, compared to 2.4 percent the multilateral lender had forecast in May and 1.9 percent last year. Turkey and Poland, which have become two of the EBRD`s biggest markets since it stopped lending in Russia in 2014 in response to the Ukraine crisis, are seen among the biggest drivers of growth. The EBRD now sees Turkey growing at 5.1 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2018. This year`s projection is almost double May`s forecast, which was lowered following April`s power grab by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Russia, the largest economy the development bank looks at and a major influence on many of its others, has now pulled out of recession after a cumulative contraction of 3 percent over the last two years. The country is expected to see GDP growth of 1.8 and 1.7 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, though it could be more as Guriev said the forecasts did not capture the most recent leg up in prices for oil, Russia`s main export.

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