The Lastest Macroeconomic News

07.02.2018 15:23 Russia`s Economic Stagnation Is Here to Stay

In the early days of 2018, the Russian economy is stagnating. This is no statistical blip: the average annual growth rate in 2008-2017 for Russia was just 1.2%. Last year, Russia`s GDP-growth rate was 1.5%, compared to 2.5% in the Eurozone and 2.3% in the United States Ц both developed economies that should be growing 2-3 percentage points slower than a developing economy like Russia. And, as the Russian economic ministry, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund all recognize, this poor performance seems likely to continue. Boosting Russia`s growth will be possible only with deep structural reforms, because the economy is stagnating at full capacity. With unemployment at around 5.5% for the fifth consecutive year Ц a rate that almost any developed country would envy Ц there are few unemployed to be put to work. Likewise, capacity utilization in manufacturing is roughly at the same level as in the previous two peaks (2007-2008 and 2013), meaning that there is almost no spare capacity to be put to use.

05.02.2018 21:57 NBU estimates Ukraine`s GDP growth at 2.1 pct in 2017

Ukraine`s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in 2017 on the back of increased consumption of goods and services in the local market, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said Friday in an estimate. "Domestic demand continued to be the main driver of the real GDP growth," the NBU said in a report, noting that the demand was spurred by increased wages. Other major factors contributing to the GDP increase were growing investment, improved business expectations and solid corporate earnings. The final figures for last year`s economic performance will be delivered later by the State Statistics Service. Ukraine`s economy grew 2.3 percent in 2016 after two years of contraction.

02.02.2018 18:49 Russia`s GDP grows 1.5% in 2017, below official 2.1% target

Russia`s GDP increased by 1.5% in 2017 to RUB92.08 trillion ($1.64 trillion), according to the first estimate of RosStat statistics agency published on February 1. This confirms previous concerns that de facto recession on the output side in the second half of 2017 undermined the growth. Official government`s forecast for GDP growth last year was 2.1% after 0.2% decline seen in 2016. GDP growth also underpeformed the market consensus, with the analysts surveyed by Reuters expecting 1.7% growth last year. Thirteen of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg also predicted higher growth in the range of 1.6-1.9%.

31.01.2018 19:53 India to regain top global GDP growth spot in 2018-19

Economic growth in India is forecast to beat out last year. The emerging economy is thus on track to regain the title of the world`s fastest growing major economy, once again overtaking China. India published its latest economic survey on Monday which included a forecast of GDP growth between 7 and 7.5 percent for the financial year 2018-2019, up from the 2017-2018 growth forecast of 6.75 percent, a three-year low. The survey, an annual document released by the Ministry of Finance, reviews the developments in the Indian economy over the previous 12 months and provides the basis for the federal budget, which is due to be introduced in parliament on Thursday, the last by the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi before general elections next year.

28.01.2018 11:11 US GDP expands at a weaker-than-expected 2.6% pace in Q4

US economic growth undershot economists` expectations in the fourth quarter with GDP expanding at the slowest rate since the start of 2017, data released on Friday showed. Gross domestic product climbed at an annualized pace of 2.6 per cent in the October to December period, marking the slowest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2017, the Commerce Department said. That missed economists` expectations for 3 per cent growth, according to a Thomson Reuters poll. The decline also snuffed out hopes for the first nine-month stretch of US GDP growth of 3 per cent or more in consecutive quarters. The slowdown in the rate of expansion reflected a drag from inventories and trade - as imports climbed at double the rate of exports - that offset strength in consumer spending, which climbed at a 3.8 per cent rate. The report also showed an uptick in government spending, which climbed at a 3 per cent pace, amid post-hurricane rebuilding efforts.

27.01.2018 20:32 Russian real wages miss forecast, industrial output falls in December

Real wages in Russia rose less than expected in December and industrial output continued to fall, data showed on Thursday, putting pressure on the economy and living standards ahead of a presidential election in March. Russia`s oil-dependent economy began a fragile recovery in 2017 after two years of recession, triggered by a sharp drop in global commodity prices as well as sanctions imposed by Western countries against Moscow for its role in the Ukraine crisis. But gross domestic product unexpectedly contracted in November, hit by a drop in industrial production. Russia`s industrial output fell 1.5 percent year on year in December, while real wages increased 4.6 percent. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected that real wages, which are adjusted for inflation, would rise 5.2 percent.

24.01.2018 17:17 IMF sees world GDP growth picking up as US tax cuts gain traction

Global growth will accelerate to the fastest pace in seven years as US tax cuts spur businesses to invest, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said. The fund raised its forecast for world expansion to 3.9% this year and next, up 0.2 percentage point both years from its projection in October. That would be the fastest rate since 2011, when the world was bouncing back from the financial crisis. About half of the IMF`s global upgrade stems from the Republican tax cuts passed in December and enacted this year. Cuts to the corporate tax rate will give the world`s biggest economy a shot in the arm, lifting US growth to 2.7% this year, 0.4 point higher than the fund expected in October, the IMF said on Monday in an update to its World Economic Outlook. Projected US growth was the highest among advanced economies.

21.01.2018 19:19 Russia c.bank: low inflation is leading to consumption growth

Russia`s economy is seeing consumption begin to increase off the back of low inflation, Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Wednesday. Russia`s economy ministry said on Monday it expects inflation to stay below the central bank`s target of 4 percent, if there are no weather-related shocks, with January inflation expected at record lows of 2.3 percent to 2.5 percent. Inflation in Russia hit a record low of 2.5 percent last year, the country`s official statistics service Rosstat said Wednesday. The rate began to steadily decline from a peak of 12.9 percent in 2015 to 5.4 percent in 2016. Last month, the Russian central bank said it expected annual inflation to reach 3 percent at the end of 2017 and draw near 4 percent by late 2018.

18.01.2018 21:07 China economy rebounds in 2017 with better than expected 6.9% growth

China`s economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter of 2017, as an export recovery helped the country post its first annual acceleration in growth in seven years, defying concerns that intensifying curbs on industry and credit would hurt expansion. The official growth figures released on Thursday are welcome news for Beijing policymakers who are looking to cut debt and pollution in older industries without stunting growth in the world`s second-largest economy. China`s gross domestic product grew 6.8 percent in the October to December period from a year earlier. That was better than the 6.7 percent growth forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll and unchanged from the previous quarter. The headline numbers and signs of property market resilience support economist views that fundamentals will remain intact in 2018, although some see headwinds from tighter regulations, U.S. trade protectionism and a softer consumer sector. "China`s growth is very healthy," said Iris Pang, a Hong Kong-based Greater China economist at ING.

16.01.2018 18:45 Russian economy suddenly shrinks in November

Russia`s economy unexpectedly contracted in November, hit by a drop in industrial production, the economy ministry said on Monday. Gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent year on year in November, the economy ministry said, contrasting with analysts` consensus call for a 1.5 percent growth. Russia`s oil-dependent economy was on the mend in 2017 after two years of recession, triggered by a sharp drop in global commodity prices as well as sanctions imposed by Western countries against Moscow for its role in the Ukrainian crisis. In November, GDP was dragged down by the industrial sector where output contracted 3.6 percent compared with a year ago.

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