The Lastest Macroeconomic News
15.03.2023 19:24 Russian inflation falls to 11% in February, analysts not expecting a rate hike in March
Russian inflation figures for February show the rate fell slightly below market expectations at 11% year on year. However, experts predict that it will fall further in March, to the central bank`s target rate of 4% as base effects take hold. Consumer prices also rose less than expected in February, at 0.5% month on month (compared to the forecasted 0.7%), and significantly less than the previous month`s 0.8%. Food inflation in particular declined, dropping to 9.3% y/y as prices rose only by 0.8% m/m. The overall y/y inflation rate decreased from 11.8% to 11%. Prices for goods were also relatively soft, with a 0.1% m/m decline. Non-food goods prices were particularly stagnant, having remained flat since mid-2022. This is weaker than usual, and household equipment prices in particular continued to decline, with TV and radio prices falling another 4.4% m/m and down 13.3% y/y. Services inflation, however, was stronger at 0.7% m/m, although the y/y rate still decreased to 13.0% after two consecutive increases.
04.03.2023 12:15 Business activity in the Russian services sector increased significantly in February
The PMI index, calculated for the service sector in Russia, in February exceeded 50 points for the first time in 5 months. This was reported on Friday, March 3 by S&P Global. The value of the indicator amounted to 53.1 points, which is significantly higher than 48.7 points in January. A significant increase in the indicator in February indicates a significant increase in business activity in the area under study, according to the report. The PMI Composite Index, which measures the business activity of all private companies operating in the Russian economy, rose from 49.7 to 53.1 on the back of a sharp rise in industrial production and a resumption of growth in services production. Growth and decline are separated by 50. Earlier it was reported that the indicator for the Russian industry in February grew at the fastest pace in 6 years, which was facilitated by an increase in both current production volumes and new sales. The indicator for the industry reached 53.6 points, which is 1 point more than the previous month.
03.03.2023 12:19 The situation in the manufacturing industry in Russia continued to improve in February
According to the latest PMI report from S&P Global, Russian manufacturing companies saw a further improvement in working conditions in February, with growth at the highest pace since the beginning of 2017. Despite the effects of the sanctions, the manufacturing sector ended 2022 with historically strong production growth. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in January 2023 continued its positive trend. Also in February, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Purchasing Managers` Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector was 53.6 in February, compared to 52.6 in January and above the 50.0 mark, unchanged, indicating growth. “The latest data showed a significant improvement in the state of the Russian manufacturing sector, and this was the most noticeable in just over six years. The rise has extended the current growth sequence to ten months,” the report says.
16.02.2023 15:23 EBRD maintains forecast for Russia`s GDP contraction by 3% in 2023
According to the updated EBRD estimate, Russia`s GDP in 2022 decreased by 3.5%. The bank`s previous forecast, made in September 2022, spoke of a possible decrease in this indicator by 5%. At the same time, the EBRD maintained its forecast for GDP in 2023 - a contraction of 3%. This forecast differed greatly from the estimates of other international and Russian organizations. Heated debate over the prospects for the Russian economy this year flared up after the IMF issued a rather controversial forecast for 2023 in February, according to which the country`s GDP should grow by 0.3%. This figure is better than that of countries such as the UK and Germany. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is more cautious in its estimates - GDP growth from -1% to +1%. As experts say, in this way the bank hedges rates. The Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Finance of Russia as a whole predict about the same outcome - a decrease of -0.8% and -0.6%, respectively. There are still no final data on Russia`s GDP for 2022 as a whole, but the estimates are much lower than the forecast for the current year.
15.02.2023 15:17 Industrial production in Russia was resilient in 2022 thanks to government spending
The volume of industrial production in Russia in 2022 fell by 0.6% year on year in 2022, according to the latest data from Rosstat. In December 2022 alone, the industry contracted 4.3% yoy, in line with expectations, and showed a seasonally adjusted 0.1% m/m growth compared to 0.7-0 growth .8% in October-November. Despite the effects of the sanctions, the manufacturing sector ended 2022 with historically strong output growth, according to IntelliNews analysts. The PMI in the manufacturing sector in January 2023 continued its positive trend, being above 50 points. However, the continuing gap between services and manufacturing suggests that light and heavy industries can be supported by increased government spending.
30.01.2023 18:48 The state of the Russian economy in 2022 turned out to be significantly better than forecasts
Russia`s GDP fell just 2.5 percent in 2022, a far cry from the 30 percent drop that leading analysts warned about at the beginning of the year. Estimates by international organizations are just around the corner: the IMF, the World Bank and the OECD estimate the decline in Russia`s GDP in 2022 in the range of 3.4% to 4.5% of GDP. Thus, things in the Russian economy turned out to be much better than expected.
27.12.2022 18:43 Apocalypse 2050: World on course for 15% GDP fall
The world is set to see global GDP plummet by a catastrophic 15% by 2050 if current emissions trends are not reined in and global warming reaches 2.2°C by 2050. Oxford Economics warned in the latest report of its Global Climate Service that climate catastrophe was a major threat to the global economy, with cooler countries no longer benefiting from modest warming. Yet the extend of the threat is staggering, with a 15% contraction likely if global emissions paths are followed. Indeed, total economic annihilation could happen if global warming continues at its current rate towards a 5°C increase by 2100, the report warned. This would mean mass extinction of most animal species, reinforcing the concern that the world cannot physically or economically cope with continued temperature rises.
20.12.2022 18:07 Russia`s inflation was 12% y/y in November, in line with expectations
Russia`s inflation in November came at 0.37% month on month, implying 11.98% year-on-year price growth, which came in slightly higher than analysts` forecasts based on weekly statistics. “However, it may indicate that the price growth is returning to its monthly dynamics, which is more relevant to the CBR`s annual 4% inflation target,” BCS GM said in a note. Monthly data suggest that the main contributor to November inflation was services prices, which rose 0.76% m/m. As bne IntelliNews reported, Russia`s service PMI improved in November, but still remains in the red, posting 48.3, which is still below the 50 no-change mark. Russia`s manufacturing PMI, however, posted its biggest gain in five years, at 53.2.
06.12.2022 15:05 Telegram Audience Interaction with Channels: Research Results
In the fall of 2022, analysts from the DataFan service, in collaboration with representatives of the Telega.in platform working in the field of native integrations, as well as specialists from the eLama service, conducted a study of the behavior of the Telegram audience. The main goal of the work was to determine the actions of users in terms of their interaction with the content in the messenger, what they are guided by when choosing specific channels, and also why they often decide to unsubscribe from the channel. Based on the results obtained, marketers improved their understanding of user behavior and optimized promotion strategies. The study showed that 2022 has greatly advanced Telegram in terms of popularity. In fact, the messenger, remaining such to this day, has also become one of the largest social networks. This circumstance had the greatest impact on the communication of account holders with users. Indeed, in the messenger, the account owner transmits the published materials directly to his subscribers, as personal messages. For this reason, the interaction of Telegram channels and users is fundamentally different from the same interactions in groups and communities of other social networks and has a number of nuances.
05.12.2022 20:01 Russia`s GDP Shrinks 4.4% YOY in October
According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in October 2022, Russia`s GDP decreased by 4.4% year-on-year after a 5% contraction in September. In September, performance worsened across the board as domestic demand failed to sustain momentum in the sanctions-insulated economy. However, the fall in GDP in the 3rd quarter. 2022 was generally contained at a level below the expected 4%. October data show that Russia`s economic performance has not improved much in the reporting month and remains vulnerable to a wide range of external and internal shocks, commented BCS Global Markets. Analysts at BCS GM note that "the recent geopolitical shock has put additional pressure on the market and consumption", adding that the outlook for the coming months - with the oil embargo in mind - remains "gloomy". However, while internal shocks led to a significant reduction in consumption, which has remained 10% lower than last year since April, external shocks are mainly manifested in the mining and manufacturing industries, which are also under pressure, falling by 2.7 % and 2.4% year on year respectively in October. At the same time, BCS GM analysts emphasize that October continued to surprise the market with strong performance in construction, where growth was 9.6% year-on-year, last seen in mid-2021. Agriculture also supported the Russian economy, although its growth slowed from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October.