The Lastest Macroeconomic News

09.04.2018 21:24 GCC economies to see revival in GDP growth in 2018

Broad-based pick-up in economic growth is expected across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in 2018, with most economies seeing an uptick, according to economists at Standard Chartered. In the GCC, we see growth rising to 2 per cent in 2018 from an estimated 0.3 per cent in 2017. The recent rise in global oil prices should cause sentiment to bottom out, and is unlikely to derail policy makers` efforts to diversify oil-centric economies, said Bilal Khan, Senior Economist, MENAP, Standard Chartered Bank. We expect interest rates to rise across the MENAP [Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan] region alongside FFTR hikes; the notable exception is Egypt, where we expect the central bank to continue with gradual easing in 2018.

07.04.2018 17:09 Australian expert: Raising trade barriers would lead to lower global GDP

Local economist Lee Davis is concerned about the United States` threat of imposing trade tariffs and about what this would mean for Australia and global economic growth. Global economic growth appears to be on shaky ground after U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that he wanted to impose further trade tariffs on Chinese imports to the value of 100 billion U.S. dollars. "There`s been a lot of advice given to the U.S. They`re just not listening to it," Davis, director at the Centre for International Economics (CIE) in Sydney, told Xinhua in an interview on Friday.

03.04.2018 21:44 Wells Fargo: Russia`s economic growth to remain solid despite Q4 slowdown

Despite the slowdown in the fourth quarter 2017 in Russia, according to analysts from Wells Fargo, the economic recovery in Russia is likely to remain intact but not going back to super-charged growth rates anytime soon. Real GDP in Russia grew only 0.9 percent on a year-ago basis in Q4-2017, which was much weaker than the consensus forecast had anticipated. Upward revisions to previous quarters, however, brought the annual GDP growth rate up to 1.5 percent, which matched the consensus forecast. The annual growth rate was the strongest outturn since 2013, although it is lackluster relative to the growth rates that the Russian economy achieved in the years leading up to the global financial crisis and in its immediate aftermath.

29.03.2018 23:25 India`s Share in World Economy Steadily Increasing

The contribution of India to world`s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has consistently been increasing. As per the available data from World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), India`s share in world`s GDP has increased from 2.6% in 2014 to 3.1% in 2017. The figure was shared by Pon. Radhakrishnan, Minister of State for Finance, in written reply to a question in Rajya Sabha. Over the last few years the government has initiated several major reforms improving the economic health of the country, including the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) which was launched in July 2017. The new Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC) has been another critical reform that the government has achieved. In another major move, the government announced large recapitalization package (about 1.2 percent of GDP) to strengthen the balance sheets of the public sector banks. The series of reforms has improved the business climate making India jump to 30 spots on the World Bank`s Ease of Doing Business rankings.

25.03.2018 19:50 Trump`s China trade war threatens world economy

Judging by the plunge in the global stock markets, the opening salvo of the trade war between the U.S. and China may seem a devastating blow to their bilateral commercial relations and potentially the global economy. However, by any objective measurements, both Washington and Beijing appear to be conserving their ammunition. U.S. President Donald Trump`s administration imposed 25% tariffs on $60 billion worth of imports from China, which represented roughly 12% of total U.S. imports from China. Beijing retaliated by levying extra tariffs on $3 billion, or 2.3%, of American imports. Given the wide latitude the Trump administration enjoys in deciding on punitive tariffs justified by findings of alleged Chinese violations of American intellectual property rights, Washington could have targeted more Chinese imports. It must be a huge relief to Beijing that Trump, the impulsive decision-maker, opted to double the initially proposed amount of $30 billion, instead of quadrupling it. Similarly, Beijing calibrated its response carefully. Instead of a powerful counter punch, China`s pin-prick response indicated that it had no desire to escalate, at least for now, even though it possesses more potent weapons (such as targeting American soybeans and Boeing aircraft).

21.03.2018 13:25 German economy continues to boom: official report

Germany will most likely sustain its economic momentum during the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, an official report published on Monday by the German Central Bank (Bundesbank) found. "The strong growth of the German economy is likely to continue through the first quarter of 2018", the Bundesbank monthly report read. The lasting positive economic development anticipated by the Frankfurt-based monetary institution was seen to be underpinned by large amounts of outstanding orders received by German industry in the second half of 2017. At the same time, further increases in domestic private consumption would be sustained by rising wages and historically-low unemployment. The Bundesbank also warned, however, that demand had reached such proportions in certain sectors of the economy that businesses were struggling with "significant capacity bottlenecks". The report highlighted the construction sector in this context which would consequently make an "at best limited contribution to overall economic growth" in Q1.

16.03.2018 14:31 Fitch: India`s GDP to grow at 7.3 per cent next fiscal, 7.5 per cent in FY 2019-20

US-based Fitch Ratings on Thursday pegged India`s GDP growth at 7.3 per cent for FY 2018-19 and 7.5 per cent for FY 2019-20. The agency in its Global Economic Outlook report said that Indian economy would clock a growth rate of 6.5 per cent this fiscal, a bit lower than the CSO`s 6.6 per cent estimate. Highlighting the factors that could propel the growth, the agency in its report noted that `the influence of one-off policy-related factor which was dragging growth has now waned.` It also observed that the money supply - which choked economic activities in formal and informal sectors after demonetisation - recovered to its pre-demonetisation level in mid-2017 and is now increasing steadily. The Indian economy in the October-December quarter recorded a growth of 7.2 per cent, highest in last five quarters.

11.03.2018 16:40 Why the global economy is due for a downswing

After so many years of anaemic growth and low wages, it might seem unreasonable to suggest that the next economic downswing could be lurking just around the corner. It is true that unemployment rates have dropped dramatically and wages have picked up a touch in a number of countries, and both are useful end-of-cycle indicators. On the other hand, interest rates are mostly low, President Donald Trump is offering fiscal stimulus in the US, the eurozone is more dynamic than it has been in many years and earlier fears regarding a Chinese economic meltdown now look absurd. Why, then, worry about the next downswing? Simply put, alarm bells should start ringing precisely when so many countries are performing so well simultaneously.

05.03.2018 19:44 China sets GDP growth target of 6.5 percent for 2018

China on Monday set its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target at around 6.5 percent for the year 2018-19, according to a government work report. The figures are, however, slightly lower than previous figures of 6.7 percent in 2016 and 6.8 percent in 2017 respectively. China will still remain as one of the world`s fastest-growing economies in the world. "Given China`s economic fundamentals and capacity for job creation, GDP growth of around 6.5 percent will enable China to achieve relatively full employment", Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at the first session of the 13th National People`s Congress (NPC), China`s top legislature which is underway. According to the report, the country aims to create over 11 million new urban jobs in this year and to maintain an inflation level at around 3 percent. The surveyed urban unemployment rate is forecasted at 5.5 percent and the registered urban jobless rate is pegged at 4.5 percent, Xinhua reported.

01.03.2018 22:16 India replaces China as world`s fastest growing economy

The Indian economy grew at 7.2 percent in October-December 2017, and will likely expand 6.6 percent in 2017-18, latest official estimates said on Wednesday, amid strong revival signs in consumption spending and investment activity. The economy is poised to move into a faster lane, swiftly recovering from the disorderly effects of demonetisation and the goods and services tax (GST). The rebound in India`s real inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 6.5 percent in the previous quarter (July-September) will likely help regain its lost status as the world`s fastest growing major economy outpacing China, which grew 6.8 percent in October-December 2017. Latest estimates broadly mirror the trends seen in high frequency indicators like corporate income and industrial output data. It is in line with the government`s earlier estimates. In January, the government had projected that India`s GDP would grow at 6.5 percent in 2017-18. Implicit calculations suggest that GDP in the October-March period would grow at 7 percent.

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