The Lastest Macroeconomic News

08.12.2017 13:16 China`s debt levels pose stability risk, says IMF

Fears that China risks being the cause of a fresh global financial crisis have been highlighted by the International Monetary Fund in a hard-hitting warning about the growing debt-dependency of the world`s second biggest economy. The IMF`s health check of China`s financial system found that credit was high by international levels, that personal debt had increased in the past five years, and that the pressure to maintain the country`s rapid growth had bred an unwillingness to let struggling firms fail. While praising China`s president, Xi Jinping, for his commitment to improving financial security, the IMF said reforms by Beijing in recent years had not gone far enough.

07.12.2017 14:26 IATA: 1% of world GDP to be spent on air transport next year

With rising air passenger numbers, as much as 1 percent of the global GDP - translating into USD 861 billion - is projected to be spent on air transport in 2018, according to IATA. The global airlines grouping also said that economic development worldwide is getting a significant boost from air transport. "New destinations are forecast to rise next year, with frequencies up too; both boosting consumer benefits. We expect 1 percent of world GDP to be spent on air transport in 2018, totalling USD 861 billion," IATA said. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) represents around 275 airlines comprising 83 percent of global air traffic.

04.12.2017 15:12 U.S. helps drive global economy higher

Believe it or not, the U.S. is in its ninth consecutive year of economic expansion. In a healthy economy, gross domestic product, or GDP, growth rate is around 3-3.5 percent. GDP is the total dollar value of goods and services produced by a country and is the key indicator of its economic health. But therein lies the rub. Though the current expansion is the third longest since World War II, it is also the slowest, with an annual rate of growth averaging a paltry 2.1 percent. In 2016, economic growth was 1.5 percent. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate was even lower at just 1.2 percent. But in the past eight months, the U.S. economy has finally gained traction. Led by improvements in consumer spending and a surge in business investment of factories, machinery and equipment, economic growth has averaged 3.05 percent. The national unemployment rate is at 4.1 percent, a 17-year low. The Consumer Confidence Index, a key measure of optimism on the state of the U.S. economy, was just reported at 129.5, reflecting a recent level of consumer optimism not seen since November 2000. The index has a benchmark of 100. Anything above 100 indicates optimism on jobs and income by consumers, who ultimately will spend money and stimulate economic growth.

30.11.2017 22:54 U.S. third-quarter economic growth fastest in three years

The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, notching its quickest pace in three years, buoyed by robust business spending on equipment and an accumulation of inventories. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.3 percent annual rate last quarter also boosted by a rebound in government investment, the Commerce Department said in its second GDP estimate on Wednesday. That was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2014 and a pickup from the second quarter`s 3.1 percent rate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 3.0 percent pace in the July-September period. It was the first time since 2014 that the economy experienced growth of 3 percent or more for two straight quarters. The growth pace, however, likely exaggerates the health of the economy as inventories, goods yet to be sold, accounted for nearly a quarter of GDP growth. Excluding inventory investment, the economy grew at a 2.5 percent rate. When measured from the income side, output also expanded at a 2.5 percent rate.

29.11.2017 12:12 World economy growing faster than in years, but not for long

The world economy is growing faster than it has in seven years and more and more people are working - but the high growth isn`t expected to last long, and wages remain stubbornly stagnant. That`s according to forecasts Tuesday from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which urged governments to do more to ensure longer-term growth and better living standards across the board. The group, which recommends policies for leading economies, predicts sustained growth in the U.S. this year and next and a sharper-than-expected increase in the countries that use the euro currency. For 2019, however, the OECD forecasts “a tempering of growth rather than continued strengthening.” Chief Economist Catherine Mann urged faster re-training of workers amid drastic technological changes, extending retirement ages, investing in renewable energy and simplified tax rules to reduce risks of a new downturn.

27.11.2017 15:34 India on track to become world`s third largest economy

India will emerge as the world`s third largest economy, surpassing Japan by 2028, on the back of rising savings rates, financial maturity and increasing incomes, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said. "We believe India stands out among the large emerging economies as having the best prospects for strong growth over the next decade. In 2028, we estimate it will surpass Japan in nominal GDP terms to emerge as the world`s third-largest economy," said Indranil Sen Gupta, economist at BofA Merrill Lynch. Although India`s GDP size was just $2.3 trillion, a fraction of China`s $11.4 trillion and $18.6 trillion of the US, in 2016, the country could already outpace Japan as the third largest in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms at $8.7 trillion. Global management consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers has forecast that India would outpace the US to emerge as the second largest economy in PPP terms by 2040 to $30 trillion from $8.7 trillion in 2016, while the US will grow from $18.6 trillion to $28.3 trillion.

24.11.2017 12:11 In 2018, the MFI market in Russia will be reduced by 6 times

According to the newspaper Daily, in 2018 there will be a large-scale reduction in the number of MFIs in Russia. Such a trend, according to analysts, can be observed against the background of the destruction of the entire banking system by the actions of the Central Bank. Recall that in 2016, the Central Bank excluded more than a third of participants from the register of microfinance organizations. And this trend has been preserved this year. For example, the day before yesterday eight more MFIs were excluded from the register, and the oldest of them worked on the market for more than 6 years.

22.11.2017 23:19 Britain crashes out of world`s top 5 economies

Britain has officially abandoned its claim to be the world`s fifth largest economy. Treasury chief Philip Hammond acknowledged the slide on Wednesday, noting the new ranking in a series of statements meant to highlight the economy`s strength. "Britain is the world`s sixth largest economy," Hammond said in his closely-watched budget speech. While there are several ways to measure the size of an economy, the U.K. Treasury pointed to GDP forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund in October to back up his statement. The numbers show that France will narrowly squeak ahead of Britain in the group`s 2017 ranking of global economies, with its advantage predicted to widen considerably in 2018. This year will be the first time since 2013 that France has topped the U.K. in the ranking, according to the IMF.

20.11.2017 20:32 Russian economy expands 1.6 pct in January-September

Russia`s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.6 percent year-on-year in the first nine months, the country`s official statistic service Rosstat said Monday, citing preliminary data. Russia`s GDP declined 0.4 percent year-on-year in the same period compared a 1.8 percent rise in the third quarter this year, Rosstat said in a release. Russia`s central bank currently puts the country`s GDP growth at 1.7-2.2 percent for the year of 2017, while the Russian Economy Ministry expects it to be 2.1 percent.

17.11.2017 17:08 Tuberculosis to cost world economy $1 trillion by 2030

Tuberculosis will cost the world economy close to $1 trillion in lost economic output by 2030, unless countries step up efforts to fight the disease, according to a report launched today by the Global TB Caucus, a group of over 2,300 parliamentarians from 130 countries. The disease cost the world more than $600 billion from 2000 to 2015. The study launches ahead of the first World Health Organization Global Ministerial Conference on Ending TB, which will take place in Moscow on November 16-17. The event will convene 1,000 participants from 100 states, including 74 ministers of health from the top 40 highest TB and multi-drug-resistant TB burden countries. Leaders from U.N. agencies, civil society, the private sector, and donors will also be in attendance. The conference will result in a ministerial declaration with commitments to accelerate efforts in ending TB and will inform the first ever U.N. high-level meeting on TB in 2018.

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