The Lastest Macroeconomic News
20.04.2018 14:36 IMF warns global economic growth will slow by 2020
Good times in the global economy will not last, the IMF warned as it predicted that a slowdown was likely to be accompanied by trade wars. In a sombre World Economic Outlook, its twice-yearly economic forecast, the fund highlighted the “jarring” contradiction between broad-based growth momentum and a “similarly broad-based conflict over trade”. The fund urged nations to use a “window of opportunity” to carry out reforms to boost growth rates before the current upswing - the strongest since 2010 - petered out. Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF`s chief economist, said global growth would slow by 2020 and warned that “major economies are flirting with trade war”, which would distract from the reform agenda “rather than advancing it”.
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15.04.2018 23:49 Malaysia only country with four times upward revision forecast by World Bank
The country can look forward to a brighter economy with the World Bank revising upwards the country`s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) four times over the last 16 months. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said Malaysia is the only country where the World Bank has revised (the forecast) upwards four times within one year and four months. “This proves that the Barisan Nasional (BN) government is managing the country`s economy well towards becoming an advanced high-income nation. Malaysia has the qualities to become a successful country and this is proven through various efforts including the early completion of the 52km Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) which was completed below the targeted cost. “The East Cost Rail Link (ECRL) which will be completed in 2022 will pass through Pahang from Bentong to Kota Sas (Kuantan) towards Cherating. Although Pekan is not part of the ECRL route, but due to its location near Kuantan, the people here will also enjoy the spillover economic benefits.
09.04.2018 21:24 GCC economies to see revival in GDP growth in 2018
Broad-based pick-up in economic growth is expected across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in 2018, with most economies seeing an uptick, according to economists at Standard Chartered. “In the GCC, we see growth rising to 2 per cent in 2018 from an estimated 0.3 per cent in 2017. The recent rise in global oil prices should cause sentiment to bottom out, and is unlikely to derail policy makers` efforts to diversify oil-centric economies,” said Bilal Khan, Senior Economist, MENAP, Standard Chartered Bank. “We expect interest rates to rise across the MENAP [Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan] region alongside FFTR hikes; the notable exception is Egypt, where we expect the central bank to continue with gradual easing in 2018.”
07.04.2018 17:09 Australian expert: Raising trade barriers would lead to lower global GDP
Local economist Lee Davis is concerned about the United States` threat of imposing trade tariffs and about what this would mean for Australia and global economic growth. Global economic growth appears to be on shaky ground after U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that he wanted to impose further trade tariffs on Chinese imports to the value of 100 billion U.S. dollars. "There`s been a lot of advice given to the U.S. They`re just not listening to it," Davis, director at the Centre for International Economics (CIE) in Sydney, told Xinhua in an interview on Friday.
03.04.2018 21:44 Wells Fargo: Russia`s economic growth to remain solid despite Q4 slowdown
Despite the slowdown in the fourth quarter 2017 in Russia, according to analysts from Wells Fargo, the economic recovery in Russia is likely to remain intact but not going back to super-charged growth rates anytime soon. “Real GDP in Russia grew only 0.9 percent on a year-ago basis in Q4-2017, which was much weaker than the consensus forecast had anticipated. Upward revisions to previous quarters, however, brought the annual GDP growth rate up to 1.5 percent, which matched the consensus forecast. The annual growth rate was the strongest outturn since 2013, although it is lackluster relative to the growth rates that the Russian economy achieved in the years leading up to the global financial crisis and in its immediate aftermath.”
29.03.2018 23:25 India`s Share in World Economy Steadily Increasing
The contribution of India to world`s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has consistently been increasing. As per the available data from World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), India`s share in world`s GDP has increased from 2.6% in 2014 to 3.1% in 2017. The figure was shared by Pon. Radhakrishnan, Minister of State for Finance, in written reply to a question in Rajya Sabha. Over the last few years the government has initiated several major reforms improving the economic health of the country, including the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) which was launched in July 2017. The new Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC) has been another critical reform that the government has achieved. In another major move, the government announced large recapitalization package (about 1.2 percent of GDP) to strengthen the balance sheets of the public sector banks. The series of reforms has improved the business climate making India jump to 30 spots on the World Bank`s Ease of Doing Business rankings.
25.03.2018 19:50 Trump`s China trade war threatens world economy
Judging by the plunge in the global stock markets, the opening salvo of the trade war between the U.S. and China may seem a devastating blow to their bilateral commercial relations and potentially the global economy. However, by any objective measurements, both Washington and Beijing appear to be conserving their ammunition. U.S. President Donald Trump`s administration imposed 25% tariffs on $60 billion worth of imports from China, which represented roughly 12% of total U.S. imports from China. Beijing retaliated by levying extra tariffs on $3 billion, or 2.3%, of American imports. Given the wide latitude the Trump administration enjoys in deciding on punitive tariffs justified by findings of alleged Chinese violations of American intellectual property rights, Washington could have targeted more Chinese imports. It must be a huge relief to Beijing that Trump, the impulsive decision-maker, opted to double the initially proposed amount of $30 billion, instead of quadrupling it. Similarly, Beijing calibrated its response carefully. Instead of a powerful counter punch, China`s pin-prick response indicated that it had no desire to escalate, at least for now, even though it possesses more potent weapons (such as targeting American soybeans and Boeing aircraft).
21.03.2018 13:25 German economy continues to boom: official report
Germany will most likely sustain its economic momentum during the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, an official report published on Monday by the German Central Bank (Bundesbank) found. "The strong growth of the German economy is likely to continue through the first quarter of 2018", the Bundesbank monthly report read. The lasting positive economic development anticipated by the Frankfurt-based monetary institution was seen to be underpinned by large amounts of outstanding orders received by German industry in the second half of 2017. At the same time, further increases in domestic private consumption would be sustained by rising wages and historically-low unemployment. The Bundesbank also warned, however, that demand had reached such proportions in certain sectors of the economy that businesses were struggling with "significant capacity bottlenecks". The report highlighted the construction sector in this context which would consequently make an "at best limited contribution to overall economic growth" in Q1.
16.03.2018 14:31 Fitch: India`s GDP to grow at 7.3 per cent next fiscal, 7.5 per cent in FY 2019-20
US-based Fitch Ratings on Thursday pegged India`s GDP growth at 7.3 per cent for FY 2018-19 and 7.5 per cent for FY 2019-20. The agency in its Global Economic Outlook report said that Indian economy would clock a growth rate of 6.5 per cent this fiscal, a bit lower than the CSO`s 6.6 per cent estimate. Highlighting the factors that could propel the growth, the agency in its report noted that `the influence of one-off policy-related factor which was dragging growth has now waned.` It also observed that the money supply - which choked economic activities in formal and informal sectors after demonetisation - recovered to its pre-demonetisation level in mid-2017 and is now increasing steadily. The Indian economy in the October-December quarter recorded a growth of 7.2 per cent, highest in last five quarters.