The Lastest Macroeconomic News

04.12.2006 20:49 China 2006 GDP growth seen at 10,6% in 2006, slowing to 9,5% in 2007

JP Morgan said it has revised up its 2006 GDP growth forecast for China to 10.6 pct, as accelerating exports and strong consumption growth continue to offset a third quarter slowdown in investment. The brokerage said it expects the economy to grow at a solid, but somewhat slower pace of 9.5 pct in 2007, as fixed-asset investment (FAI) and export growth slow modestly, while consumption remains strong. Administrative controls on land use and bank lending are likely to continue next year, while the central bank is expected to increase interest rates only slightly, with hikes in the bank reserve ratio requirement (RRR) seen as the primary means to contain liquidity, JP Morgan said in a note.

03.12.2006 17:45 The Economic Sentiment Indicator in the EU reached 113,1 in November 2006

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in the EU, produced by the European Commission, continued to rise in November, reaching its highest level since the beginning of 2001, while it remained broadly stable in the Eurozone. The indicator rose by 1.6 points in the EU and decreased by 0.1 point in the Eurozone, to 113.1 and 110.3 respectively. In both areas, sentiment has been on an upward trend since mid-2005. The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the eurozone climbed to an all-time high in November, the European Commission said this week. After leveling off in October, the BCI for the 12 nations sharing the same currency picked up again in November, rebounding from 1.41 to 1.54, the highest level in record.

01.12.2006 21:45 The Institute for Supply Management factory index fell to 49.5 from 51.2 in the prior month

Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank last month for the first time in more than three years, dimming prospects for an economy that is already slowing because of a housing downturn. The Institute for Supply Management factory index (ISM index) fell to 49.5, from 51.2 in the prior month. A reading below 50 signals contraction in an industry that accounts for 12 percent of gross domestic product. ISM sub-indexes tracking production and new orders also declined along with employment. Prices climbed. Construction spending dropped by the most in five years in October, sliding 1 percent, the Commerce Department said in Washington today.

30.11.2006 21:14 Industrial production in Japan unexpectedly increased 1,6% in October 2006

Industrial production in Japan unexpectedly rose in October 2006, backing the assessment of central bank that the second-largest economy in the world is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates. Factory output climbed a seasonally adjusted 1,6% from a month earlier, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tokyo today. Gains were led by autos and semiconductors as production rose 7,4% from a year earlier, the biggest jump in more than two years.

29.11.2006 21:40 U.S. GDP growth revised higher to 2.2% rate in third quarter

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% annual pace in the third quarter, a bit faster than the 1.6% initially estimated, but down from the 2.6% in the previous quarter, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in its first revision to the gross domestic product report. Revisions came largely from greater building of inventories and lower imports than originally assumed. Business investment also grew more than first estimated, while consumer spending was slightly slower. Final sales of domestic product increased 2.1%, up from the 1.7% originally reported. Meanwhile, a key measure of core inflation was revised a tenth of a percentage point lower, to 2.2%. Year-over-year growth in the core personal consumption expenditure price index was unrevised at 2.4%, thus remaining well above the implied target of 1% to 2%. The economy has grown 3% in the past year in real terms, just about the rate economists say is the long-term potential. In nominal terms, GDP was at an annual rate of $13.33 trillion in the third quarter.

28.11.2006 20:55 U.S. economy will not dent the recovery that is gathering pace in Europe

U.S. economy will not dent the recovery that is gathering pace in Europe, the OECD said Tuesday. The 12-nation euro zone will post 2,6% growth this year and 2,2% in 2007, it predicted, upgrading the previous forecasts of 2,2% and 2,1%. OECD also hiked its forecast for German GDP growth this year to 2,6% from 2,2% and its forecast for 2007 growth to 1,8% from 1,6%. It said it expects growth to pick up again to 2,1% in 2008. The OECD cut its 2006 forecast for France to 2,1% from 2,4%. It kept its 2007 forecast at 2,2% and said it expects the French economy to grow 2,3% in 2008.

27.11.2006 21:25 The industrial production growth is likely to lend support to the GDP up 6,7% in 2006

The industrial production growth estimate for 2006 has been raised from 4.6% to 4.8%, which is likely to lend support to the GDP growth of 6.7%, the analysts of Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting said. Russian investment growth is likely to reach the 13.7% level in 2006, driven by the easing of the VAT regime in construction and the elimination of import duties on high-tech equipment. The industrial production growth estimate for 2007 has been raised from 4.3% to 5.0%.

26.11.2006 18:48 British GDP increased 2,7% in the third quarter of 2006, GDP of Germany grew 2,8%

Britain recorded 0,7% in economic growth for the third quarter over the previous quarter and 2,7% for the year, the office for National Statistics said in its second estimate this week. Economists had expected the NS office to adhere strictly to its prior estimate, or a quarterly increase of 0,7% and a year-on-year rise of 2.8%, according to ABN Amro bank. De Statis, the German federal statistics office, says this week the GDP of Germany grew 0,6% in the third quarter of 2006. Compared with a year earlier, the GDP in the third quarter of 2006 was up 2.8%.

25.11.2006 16:05 GDP of Russia had risen 6.8% in January-October 2006

Economics minister of Russia discussed the medium-term future of the economy at a news conference Tuesday, focusing on plans for an oil exchange, changes to the domestic gas price, inflation, and import regulations. German Gref said gross domestic product of Russia had risen 6.8% in January-October 2006, and that GDP growth from October 2005 to October 2006 was 8.2%. On inflation, the minister said the figure would not exceed the national target of 9%. "According to the current dynamics, we are keeping to the 9% inflation index," he told.

23.11.2006 21:28 US October industrial production up 0.2%

The Federal Reserve Board announced November 16 that U.S. industrial production rose 0.2 percent in October after having decreased 0.6 percent in September; production in August was revised up to show a gain of 0.3 percent. Economists were expecting production to rise 0.3%. Capacity utilization rose to 82.2% from a revised 82.1% in September. Manufacturing output fell 0.2% in October, due to weak auto production. Excluding autos, manufacturing output rose 0.1%. Output of utilities jumped 4.1% in October after falling 4.6% in the previous month.

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