The Lastest Macroeconomic News
02.11.2007 21:55 Eurozone October manufacturing PMI was 51.5 versus 53.2 in September
The euro zone manufacturing sector purchasing managers` index was left unrevised at 51.5, its lowest since Aug 2005, sources said of a key survey. The latest reading also represents a steep fall from the 53.2 reading in September but is in line with predictions. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. A more detailed look at the survey shows the output sub-index was revised up slightly to 52.6 from the original estimate of 52.5, although this is still the lowest reading since Aug 2005. New orders were also revised up a notch to 50.7 from the flash reading of 50.6, but this still represents the lowest level since May 2005. On the prices front the input prices balance was upwardly revised to 59.0, the lowest reading since Aug 2005, from the earlier estimate of 58.9. Output prices came in at 53.2 compared to the flash reading of 53.1. The employment sub index was left unchanged at 51.1, the lowest reading since March 2006. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 in October from 52.6 in September, its lowest level since May 2005.
30.10.2007 20:10 Russia`s GDP grew 7.4 percent in January-September 2007
Russia`s GDP grew 7.4 percent in January-September 2007 compared to 6.6 percent in the first nine months in 2006, Russian Economy Ministry reported today. The country`s GDP went up 5.6 percent in September 2007 against 6.8 percent in the same month a year earlier. Russia`s GDP is expected to grow 7.7 percent in 2007, Presidential Aide Igor Shuvalov said at the annual meeting of the US-Russia Business Council. He pointed out that Russia`s economy had been rapidly developing and that chances were good that the GDP growth rate for 2007 would exceed that of 6.7 percent in 2006. Shuvalov added that Russia had accumulated considerable gold and currency reserves, and that the size of Stabilization Fund was increasing consistently. He also expressed confidence in the Russian government`s ability to curb inflation and bring its level down to that of the US and other European countries.
26.10.2007 21:34 US new home sales rose 4.8 percent in September 2007
Sales of new single-family homes rose 4.8 percent in September but sales in August were revised down sharply according to a government report on Thursday that painted a mixed picture of the battered housing sector. New single-family home sales set an annual rate of 770,000 units in September, up from a downwardly revised rate of 735,000 in August, the Commerce Department said. Analysts had expected a 10,000 drop from the previously reported 780,000. While sales were weak, the inventory of homes fell and the median sales price rose. In September, the median sales price of a new home rose 2.5 percent to $238,000 from $232,100 in August, a month that saw the slowest sales pace in 11 years. There were 523,000 new homes for sale at the end of the month, a 1.5 percent drop from August. It would take 8.3 months to clear that inventory at the current sales pace, down from the 9 months supply reported in August. Sales for the month were off 23.3 percent from a year ago. Across the regions, sales were mostly down although the West did see a 37.7 increase. In the Midwest, sales were off 19.5 percent and down 6.6 percent in the Northeast. Sales were up 0.5 percent in the South. The report comes a day after a realty trade association said sales of previously owned homes fell 8 percent to a record low 5.04 million unit pace amid troubles in the subprime mortgage market.
23.10.2007 20:31 Japan`s industrial output up 3.5 percent in August from the previous month
Japan`s industrial output rose by 3.5 percent in August from the previous month, slightly better than previously reported, the government said. An initial estimate last month had shown production growing by 3.4 percent after a dip in July when an earthquake hit automobile production. Shipments increased 4.9 percent in August, against a preliminary reading of a 4.3 percent rise, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. Inventories rose a revised 0.2 percent, below the preliminary estimate of a 0.3 percent gain. Japan`s economy, the second largest in the world, is gradually recovering from a slump stretching back over a decade. But there are concerns about the impact of slowing exports to the United States. A drop in corporate capital investment also caused Japan`s gross domestic product to contract in the second quarter of this year.
20.10.2007 21:28 US September industrial production up 0.1 pct, capacity utilisation 82.1 pct
US industrial production rose 0.1 pct in September as a pick-up in manufacturing of business and high-technology equipment offset declines at auto plants and utilities. The Federal Reserve`s report also put September`s plant capacity utilisation rate at 82.1 pct. Analysts were expecting the 0.1 pct rise in production and an operating rate of 82.2 pct. August production was revised down to no change from the 0.2 pct first reported, and capacity use was cut a tenth of a percentage point to 82.1 pct. Utility output fell 0.1 pct in September after the second-warmest August since 1900 had produced a 4.6 pct increase that month. Manufacturing overall was up 0.1 pct last month, rebounding from a 0.4 pct decline in August. Mining output rose 0.2 pct after falling 0.6 pct in August. Year-on-year, US industrial production was up 1.9 pct last month.
18.10.2007 15:59 Russia`s industrial output increases by 6.6% in Jan-Sept, 3% in Sept
Russia`s industrial output went up 6.6 percent in the first nine months of the year as compared to the same period of 2006, the the Federal State Statistics Service reported. In September, the country`s industrial production increased by 3.0 percent versus September 2006. In January-September, growth in the mining of natural resources was 2.2 percent versus the same period in 2006 and the output in Russia`s processing industries increased by 10.0 percent. In the period under review, oil and gas condensate production grew 2.5 percent versus the same period in 2006 and reached 367 million tonnes, production of natural gas in the country decreased by 1.3 percent to 478 billion cubic meters, while coal production went up by 0.6 percent to 225 million tonnes. According to statistics, electricity generation grew by 1.3 percent in January-September 2007 and reached 731 billion kilowatt-hours, while production of thermal energy reduced by 7.2 percent to 938 million Gcal. In the months under review, production of cars went up by 9.1 percent to 936,000 vehicles, production of trucks increased by 16.3 percent to 206,000 vehicles, and output of buses decreased by 6.8 percent to 61,000 units. In the first nine months of the year, Russia`s bread and baked goods production lowered by two percent to 5.7 million tonnes, meat production increased by 17 percent to 1.8 million tonnes, and production of whole milk goods went up by 1.1 percent to 7.6 million tonnes.
07.10.2007 13:08 Euro zone GDP growth is expected to be 2.6 percent in 2007
France`s statistics office Insee said it now sees euro zone GDP increasing by 2.6 pct in 2007. Insee`s forecast was the same with economist`s expectations and just under the European Commission`s and IMF`s estimates. The IMF`s forecast for the euro zone was trimmed to 2.3 percent from a previous 2.5 percent projection, the news agencies reported last week. The European Commission last week lowered its forecast for 2007 euro zone growth to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent due to a weak second quarter and a preliminary assessment of the impact of the market turbulence since August. The Commission said the turmoil on financial markets "could imply a more marked deceleration" in 2008. The European Commission (EC) also expects that euro zone GDP growth will be 0.5% q/q in the third and fourth quarters. The EC said that economic fundamentals are still sound and the global business environment remains supportive. The EC added that the effects of the credit crunch are likely to felt only next year.
05.10.2007 23:39 Statistics service said Russia`s inflation at 7.5% in Jan-Sep 2007
Consumer price inflation in Russia amounted to 7.5% in January-September, the Federal State Statistics Service said. Consumer price inflation in September amounted to 0.8%. Core inflation, which eliminates the influence of one-time events, administrative actions and seasonal fluctuations, amounted to 6.7% in January-September and to 1.6% in September. In January-September, prices of services rose 11.6%, prices of manufactured goods rose 4%, prices of foodstuffs rose 8.1%, and prices of foodstuffs, excluding fruit and vegetables, also rose 8.1%. In September, prices of services rose 0.4%, prices of manufactured goods rose 0.8%, prices of foodstuffs rose 1%, and prices of foodstuffs, excluding fruit and vegetables, rose 2.2%. In Moscow, inflation was at 0.5% in September and at 6.8% in January-September, while in St. Petersburg inflation was at 0.5% in September and at 8.1% in January-September. In 2006, consumer prices rose 9%, which was on the government`s target for the year. The government`s official inflation forecast for 2007 is 8%.
02.10.2007 22:24 Expansion of Global Manufacturing output hit twenty-five months low in September
Global manufacturing growth fell sharply in September as new orders growth cooled dramatically, a global indicator based on national surveys of manufacturers showed. The indicator, produced by JP Morgan with research and supply management organisations, fell to 52.3 in September from 53.1 in August, its lowest level in just over two years. Production growth hit a 22-month low in the euro zone, while it cooled to its lowest since March in the United States. The global new orders index fell to a 28-month low of 52.5 from 53.9 in August, with the euro zone particularly hard hit. "Manufacturers appear to be responding to slower demand growth and credit market tightening by curtailing the growth of new orders and inventory," said David Hensley, director of research at JP Morgan. The employment index rose marginally to 52.2 in September from 52.0 the previous month, with hiring up across all major economies. The index combines survey data from countries including the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia.
29.09.2007 12:05 U.S. consumer sentiment remains low in September
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers found U.S. consumer sentiment essentially unchanged this month, at its lowest level in 13 months, as lower gasoline prices failed to buoy an economy weighed down by the credit crunch and real estate slump, according to Bloomberg News. The surveys` final index of consumer sentiment in September was 83.4 points (2000 = 100 points), edging down slightly from this month’s preliminary reading of 83.8 points and the August reading of 83.7 points to its lowest level since August 2006. For the first eight months of the year, the average reading was 83.9. The index had been expected to rise to 84 points, according to the median forecast of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Reuters/University of Michigan current conditions index – reflecting Americans` perceptions of their own current finances – fell to 97.9 points from last month’s 98.4. But the surveys` expectations index – reflecting consumers` view of the economy in the months ahead – rebounded slightly, rising to 74.1 points this month from 73.7 in August.