The Lastest Macroeconomic News
13.05.2008 21:38 China`s inflation rises to almost 12-year high
China`s inflation almost climbed to a 12-year high in April, swamping official efforts to cool surging living costs that could provoke unrest ahead of the Beijing Olympics. The government, which took further steps Monday to tame the inflation, faces the possibility of more sharp price hikes, some analysts warned. "Underlying inflationary pressures remain undiminished", Goldman Sachs economists Yu Song and Hong Liang said in a report. The government ordered banks to increase their reserves for a fourth time this year in a move meant to contain inflation by curbing lending, but it gave no indication whether it would boost interest rates. April`s consumer prices rose by 8.5 percent over the same month last year, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. That was a rebound from March`s 8.3 percent rate and below February`s 8.7 percent — the highest in 12 years. Premier Wen Jiabao has said taming inflation is Beijing`s priority. The government said in March it hoped to hold price rises to 4.8 percent this year — a target that looks increasingly unlikely. April inflation was driven by a 22.1 percent jump in food prices, including 68.3 percent for pork over the same month last year, 46.6 percent for cooking oil and 13.6 percent for vegetables.
07.05.2008 23:12 Russia`s trade surplus grew 1.6 times to $53.6bn in the first quarter
Russia`s trade surplus grew 1.6 times to $53.6bn in the first quarter of 2008 compared to the same period a year earlier, the Federal Customs Service of Russia said. Earlier, the Russian Economy Ministry said trade turnover increased 50.3 percent to $168.8bn in the first quarter. Russia`s exports jumped 50 percent to $108.1bn. The sharp increase can be attributed to faster-than-expected price growth for key products exported from Russia. Meanwhile, Russia`s imports grew 40.9 percent to $60.7bn. Countries outside the CIS accounted for 86.7 percent of Russia`s imports against 84.6 percent a year earlier, while the CIS`s share decreased from 15.4 percent to 13.3 percent accordingly. Two of Russia`s top three trade partners are European: Germany with a turnover of USD 31.9 billion and the Netherlands with 28.3 billion. China is the third. European countries account for 75 percent of direct investment in Russia. Britain ranks first. During the first part of 2007 it invested more than USD 15 billion.
06.05.2008 00:15 The CPI stood at 101.4 percent in Russia in April, reaching 106.3 percent for the year to date
The consumer price index stood (CPI) at 101.4 percent in Russia in April, reaching 106.3 percent for the year to date, the Russian State Statistics Service said in a statement. In 2007, the CPI amounted to 100.6 percent in April and 104 percent from the start of the year. Prices rose more than 2 percent in nine Russian regions. As during the previous month, prices and tariffs of consumer goods and services overall grew the most in the Chechen Republic (3.6 percent), where foodstuffs increased in value by 4.2 percent. The CPI stood at 101.1 percent in Moscow (105.8 percent from the beginning of the year) and 102.4 percent in St. Petersburg (106.6 percent from the start of the year).
30.04.2008 20:00 US GDP grew 0.6 percent y/y in the first quarter
The US economy slowed to a crawl in the first three months of this year, with gross domestic product growing just 0.6% for the second quarter in a row, according to advance data released today by the Commerce Department. The anemic growth was consistent with expectations by analysts who have been predicting an economic slowdown or shallow recession for much of this year. A main contributor to the slow growth was a drop-off in personal consumption, which accounts for about three-quarters of the nation`s economic demand. Personal consumption grew just 1.0% in the first quarter compared with 2.3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2007. The decline was led by a 6.1% decrease in purchases of durable goods and a 1.3% decrease in nondurable goods. The only area of increase was the consumption of services, which rose 3.4% in the first quarter of this year, compared with a 2.8% increase in the last three months of last year. The housing sector continued to contract at a blistering rate - the equivalent of a 26.7% decline in residential investment over the last year, the department said. The Commerce Department noted that the advance report is based on incomplete data and the results are likely to be revised in coming months.
29.04.2008 22:05 The European Commission cuts growth forecast and ups inflation forecast
The European Commission has said that financial market turmoil, a slowing US economy and soaring commodity prices will curb growth in the region more than expected. In its spring economic forecast, the Commission says euro zone growth will slow to 1.7% this year and 1.5% next year, that is down from 2.8% and 2.6% in the last two years. European economic and monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia said: "This shows some impact coming from the financial turmoil and the US slowdown indeed, but from the second quarter of the year onwards, we start again growth in the EU and the euro area and this allows us a positive profile regarding growth at the end of this year and in particular throughout 2009". The Commission said a surge in food and oil prices is dampening consumer demand and therefore growth. It has raised its price growth forecast. Inflation hit a record high of 3.6% year-on-year in March and the Commission now expects it to be 3.2% in the whole of 2008 from 2.1% last year and to ease to 2.2% in 2009. The European Central Bank is predicting inflation at 2.9% this year and 2.1% in 2009. ECB Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet and his policymakers have said that the best way they can keep inflation contained is by leaving interest rates unchanged for now.
26.04.2008 14:35 Russia Central Bank official sees FY inflation below 10 percent
Russia Central Bank first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said the nation`s inflation will be just under 10 percent in 2008, down from last year`s 11.9 percent level, Interfax reported. "I am firmly convinced that we have every chance to significantly lower inflation this year compared to last year and put it at single digits just below 10 percent", Ulyukayev said. The official also stated that the year-on-year inflation was still too high, at 14 percent. Inflation is driven not only by global factors, but also by domestic ones, including the policies of the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry, as well as natural monopolies` tariff policies, Ulyukayev stated. Meanwhile, he pointed out that it was possible to keep the inflation rate within the target of 10 percent in 2008, although it was a very difficult task. Russia`s Economic Development and Trade Ministry earlier this month said full year inflation would range from 9 percent to 10 percent, up from an earlier 8 percent to 9.5 percent forecast range.
25.04.2008 22:38 German government expects economy to grow 1.7% in 2008 and 1.2% in 2009
The German government expects the country`s economy to grow 1.2 percent during 2009, economy minister Michael Glos said. The four leading German research institutes expect the economy to grow 1.4 percent next year. Glos confirmed the government expects the economy to grow 1.7 percent this year. In 2007, GDP growth was at 2.5 percent. He said the government expects the number of jobless in 2008 and 2009 to reach 3.2 million on average. The German government expects the country`s 2008 inflation rate to come in around 2.6 percent and to drop to 1.8 percent in 2009, sources close to the government told German news agency dpa. The inflation rate figures match the most recent estimates by four leading German research institutes, which revised their estimates upwards in mid April.
22.04.2008 20:52 IMF predicts growth slowdown for euro economies in 2008-2009
Growth in Europe is expected to slow significantly in 2008-09, reflecting spillovers from weaker global growth, rising commodity prices and the strains in financial markets. Europe`s economy is resilient but not immune to global economic threats, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday as it defended its recent gloomy outlook on the region. According to the IMF, GDP growth in the Eurozone will slow to 1.4% this year and 1.2% in 2009. In 2007, growth was 2.6%. The projections in the Regional Economic Outlook have not changed from those in the World Economic Outlook released on April 9th. Michael Deppler, the IMF`s European director, who is about to retire, said on Monday this represented a "middle-of-the-road view" of the likely effects of economic shocks such as the global financial crisis, a looming US recession and the euro`s appreciation to record levels.
19.04.2008 23:04 U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in March of 2007
U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in March, the Fed said. Production in February was revised to a drop of 0.7%, compared with the previous estimate of a 0.5% decline. Capacity utilization rose 0.2% to stand at 80.5% in March from 80.3% in the previous month. The rise in production was unexpected. Economists had been anticipating that May`s production would fall 0.1%. For the first quarter, industrial production is down 0.1%, after rising 0.4% in the final three months of 2007. This is Industrial production was up 1.6% in the past year. Utility output surged 1.9% in March, while the output of consumer goods was flat in the month. Manufacturing output rose 0.1% in March, held down by a large decline in output of motor vehicles. Output of mining rose 0.9% after rising 0.3% in February. Semiconductor production rose by 3.9%, while computer equipment rose 1.5%. Output of motor vehicles fell by 5.4% in March. Excluding motor vehicles, industrial production was up 0.6% in March. Production of non-industrial supplies rose 0.4% in March. The production of business equipment rose 0.6% remaining flat in the previous month. Output of construction materials was down 0.2% after falling 1.3% in the previous month.
15.04.2008 23:09 Russia`s industrial production expanded 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2008
Russia`s industrial production expanded 6.2 percent in the first quarter of 2008 compared to the same period a year earlier. In March alone, industrial production increased 6.5 percent year-on year, and 11.7 percent compared to February 2008, the Federal State Statistics Service said. Processing industries which showed a growth of 8.7 percent made the greatest input into the industrial production index. Net capital inflow into Russia, which is reaping the benefit from high world oil prices, reached a record $82.3 billion in 2007, almost double the previous year`s figure, Russia`s Central Bank earlier said. Foreign direct investment in Russia is expected to exceed last year`s figure of $28 billion in 2008, Arkady Dvorkovich, a senior economic adviser to the Russian president, said at the Russian economic and financial forum in Switzerland in March.