The Lastest Macroeconomic News
05.02.2012 17:46 Saxo Bank Outlook 2012: A Year of Great Change
Saxo Bank, the online trading and investment specialist, in its Q1 2012 Financial Outlook, believes that a perfect storm is pending as tensions are mounting unbearably. The combination of the ongoing EU crisis, slowing aggregated global demand and rising social tensions will leave no nation untouched and could result in the most pivotal year by far since 2008. Overall, the Bank looks for world growth to slow in 2012 to 3 percent. Saxo Bank believes that a renewed crisis in the EU is inevitable as the leaders of the Union have failed to address the fact that the sovereign debt crisis is one of solvency and not liquidity provision, and its growth outlook for Europe is mostly negative. In the US, growth will likely be somewhat stronger than elsewhere. In Asia, growth will likely look far weaker than consensus, as China faces some heavy lifting on rebalancing its economy. Uncertainty is great in this area as the regime is capable of forcing activity and behaviour to a degree not attainable elsewhere. The surge in commodities in 2011, partly due to the initiation of the US Federal Reserve`s Quantitative Easing 2 programme, saw the outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) improve. As the effects of commodity speculation fade, the MENA region faces headwinds though it should manage around 3.5 percent growth in GDP as domestic demand returns. Crucial for economic growth are stabilisation in the political sphere following a roller coaster ride in 2011, which saw several changes of government including that of Libya. Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank comments: "The perfect storm is coming but there is no need to panic. We are optimistic that 2012 will be a year of great change and a perfect storm in the MENA area is based on good underlying fundamentals combined with almost imperfect visibility on geopolitical risk."
27.01.2012 16:45 Russia`s industrial production rose in 2011 a total of 4.7 percent
Russia`s industrial production rose in 2011 a total of 4.7 percent. This is stated in a report on the country`s industrial production which the state statistics agency Rosstat published. The increase includes all major industry sectors: oil (+ 0.8 percent), gas (+ 2.9), cars (+ 44.5), trucks (+ 6.6 percent). Electricity production in Russia in 2011 increased from the previous year by 1.4 percent and has reached 1.05 trillion kilowatt hours. Oil production in the Russian Federation increased in 2011 by 0.8 percent compared to last year and amounted to 509 million tons. Gas production has increased in the reporting year by 2.9 percent to 669 billion cubic meters. The production of LNG (liquefied gas) was increased by 6.6 percent to 10.7 million tons. Production of passenger cars in Russia in 2011 increased compared to 2010 with 44.5 percent to 1.7 million. Production of buses rose in 2011 by 4.3 percent to 43,100 units. Production of trucks increased last year by 33.4 percent to 207,000 vehicles. Growth in industrial production in Russia in 2011 amounted to 4.7 percent. In December 2011 was the growth of industrial production from December 2010 2.5 percent, from November 2011 2.9 percent.
19.01.2012 21:08 World Bank slashes global GDP forecasts, outlook grim
The World Bank warned developing countries to prepare for the "real" risk that an escalation in the euro area debt crisis could tip the world into a slump on a par with the global downturn in 2008/09. In a report sharply cutting its world economic growth expectations, the World Bank said Europe was probably already in recession. If the euro area debt crisis deepened, global economic forecasts would be significantly lower. The World Bank predicted world economic growth of 2.5 per cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2013, well below the 3.6 per cent growth for each year projected in June. The World Bank said if the euro area debt crisis escalates, global growth would be about 4 per centage points lower. It forecast high-income economies would expand just 1.4 per cent in 2012 as the euro area shrinks 0.3 per cent, sharp downward revisions from growth forecasts last June of 2.7 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively. It cut its forecast for growth in developing economies to 5.4 per cent for 2012 from its previous forecast of 6.2 per cent, saying expansion in Brazil and India and to a lesser extent Russia, South Africa and Turkey, had slowed already. It saw a slight pick up in growth in developing economies in 2013 to 6 per cent. But the report said threats to growth are still rising, suggesting the outlook remained highly uncertain. It also cited failure so far to resolve high debts and deficits in Japan and the United States and slow growth in other high-income countries, and cautioned those could trigger sudden shocks. On top of that, political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa could disrupt oil supplies and add another blow to global prospects. It said that while Europe was moving toward a long-term solution to its debt problems, markets remained skittish. On balance, the World Bank said global economic conditions were "fragile and there remains great uncertainty as to how markets will evolve over the medium term."
11.01.2012 14:32 German economy grew 3.0% in 2011 before slump
Germany grew by a robust 3.0 percent last year but the debt crisis brought Europe`s biggest economy almost to a halt in the final months, official data showed. German gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 3.0 percent in 2011, compared with record growth of 3.7 percent the previous year, the national statistics office Destatis calculated. The strong performance enabled Europe`s economic powerhouse to bring down its public deficit -- the shortfall between government spending and income -- to just 1.0 percent of GDP last year from 4.3 percent in 2010. That is the first time since 2008 that the German deficit ratio has been below the European Union`s ceiling of 3.0 percent. At the same time, GDP likely shrank by "around a quarter of a percentage point" in the final quarter, Destatis official Norbert Raeth told a news conference. The driving force behind growth was domestic demand, with consumer spending up 1.5 percent, the strongest increase in five years. In addition, investment was also strong, with investment in equipment rising by 8.3 percent. Foreign trade also contributed to growth, adding 0.8 percentage points to the overall GDP figure, with German exports rising 8.2 percent in 2011 and imports up by 7.2 percent, Destatis calculated. At 3.0 percent, German growth is double both the anticipated average for both the European Union and the eurozone, as well as for the United States.
25.12.2011 15:26 US GDP Growth Revised Down To 1.8% In Q3 2011
The U.S. economy expanded less than thought during the third quarter as consumer spending fell short of an earlier estimate, though signs point to stronger growth in the final months of the year. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of all the goods and services produced in an economy, grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 1.8% in the July to September period. While still the strongest performance of the year, the Commerce Department’s third estimate of GDP is lower than the previous reading of 2.0%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast 2.0% growth. The economy’s lower growth level was largely due to a downward revision of how much consumers spent, especially for services such as health care. The latest estimate showed personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about two-thirds of spending in the economy, rose by 1.7% in the third quarter. That compares to a previous estimate of a 2.3% increase.
19.12.2011 15:18 Russia gained approval Dec 16th to join the World Trade Organization
After nearly two decades of trying, Russia gained approval Dec 16th to join the World Trade Organization, a move likely to boost its economy and that of its biggest trading partner, the European Union, at a time of global financial turmoil. The vote by international trade ministers also provides a measure of victory for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who faces popular discontent after allegations of fraud in recent parliamentary elections. Russia, with the sixth largest economy in the world and a population of 143 million, has been the only member of the Group of 20 leading world economies still outside the 153-nation WTO. Once it formally joins - presumably early next year after ratification from the Russian Duma - Moscow will be subject to the Geneva-based body`s rules for global trade and settling disputes, a change likely to give more confidence to investors outside the country. The 27-nation EU is Russia`s biggest trading partner for agriculture, fuels, mining and manufacturing. The EU buys 52 percent of Russia`s exports, including the fossil fuels that keep Europe running. Russia, in turn, is third-biggest customer for EU exports, after the U.S. and China. Russia`s WTO membership is expected to quickly increase EU exports by some $5.2 billion a year, EU trade officials say. Under the agreement, Russians will be able to buy European-made goods at far lower prices and to sell their oil and gas more efficiently. U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said the development "represents a great cause for celebration." Russia`s WTO membership won`t automatically apply to the U.S. A 1974 law requires the U.S. Congress to first approve of permanent normal trade relations with Russia. The Cold War-era law was intended to pressure the Soviet Union to allow emigration, primarily of Jews. Kirk told the AP that the U.S. recognizes there`s a potential "damaging impact to U.S. exporters" if Congress doesn`t agree.
11.12.2011 16:32 Japan`s economy grew an annualized 5.6 percent on quarter in the July-September period
Japan`s economy grew an annualized 5.6 percent on quarter in the July-September period, downwardly revised from a preliminary expansion of six percent, the Cabinet Office said. On an inflation-adjusted basis gross domestic product (GDP) equates to a revised 1.4 percent increase from the previous quarter, down from a preliminary 1.5 percent increase, but higher than median economists` forecasts for a revised 1.3 percent expansion, the office said. The downward revision was largely expected by economists following the government stating recently it was lowering its capital spending estimate, a key factor in calculating gross domestic product. Capital spending was revised downward to a 0.4 percent quarter- on-quarter decline, from a preliminary 1.1 percent rise, the government`s latest figures showed. In addition the cabinet office said that private consumption was downwardly revised to a 0.7 percent increase on quarter, from a preliminary one percent rise. Capital investment by Japanese non-financial companies slumped 9.8 percent in the reporting quarter and on a seasonally adjusted basis, capex, excluding spending on software, declined 2.7 percent to mark a fourth straight quarterly drop, following a 6.3 recent in the previous quarter, the cabinet office said. Japan`s third-quarter economic expansion was its first growth in four quarters and came after the earthquake and tsunami disaster in March. According to the latest figures from the finance ministry, Japanese companies cut capital spending by 9.8 percent from a year earlier in the three months ended Sept. 30, marking the second quarter of retraction and the cabinet office noted that in October Machinery orders, a key indicator of future capital spending, decreased 6.9 percent from the previous month. Economists expect Japan`s economy to contract in the next quarter as the rebound loses momentum, weighed down by the nation` s persistently strong yen that has forced some firms to move manufacturing operations from Japan to more economically viable countries and seen firms` overseas profits eroded on unfavorable exchange rates and stripped companies here of their competitiveness in global markets.
02.12.2011 12:38 The International Monetary Fund said it would probably lower its global economic growth
The International Monetary Fund said on Dec 01th that it would probably lower its global economic growth, but did not expect a double-dip recession in the United States. "We will likely be revising downwards our forecast," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said at a regularly scheduled news briefing, refusing to give further details. There has been a sharp slowdown, particularly in Europe, and financial market turmoil has clouded forecasting since the IMF`s World Economic Outlook report was issued in October, he said. "The global recovery remains unbalanced and bumpy. Since that WEO there has been a marked slowdown in economic activity, especially as we all known, in Europe. The turmoil in the financial market is also contributing to further uncertainty about the economic forecast. WEO updates will be issued "toward the end" of January, he added. Asked whether the IMF sees the United States, where economic growth has been sluggish, falling back into recession, Rice said: "Our forecast is not for a double-dip recession." He also said the IMF has received no requests for short-term credit lines amid the current slowdown.
25.11.2011 18:34 US GDP grew at 2.0 percent in Q3 2011 compared with earlier estimations of 2.5 percent
The US Commerce Department said that during the third quarter, the country`s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 2 percent, compared with earlier estimations of 2.5 percent, reported Khaleej Times.The department added that the rate of growth recorded in the period was higher than second quarter`s 1.3 percent pace, a period which was affected by high gasoline prices that hampered spending, in addition to the consequences of Japan`s earthquake and tsunami which restrained auto output.It also said that during the third quarter, business inventories declined by USD8.5 billion, which trimmed 1.55 percentage points from GDP growth, on the other hand, consumer spending during the period was revised slightly down to a 2.3 percent growth pace due to adjustments to motor vehicle fuels and lubricants. It is worth noting that during the fourth quarter, pace of economic growth might surpass 3 percent, recording the fastest pace in eighteen months.
16.11.2011 13:49 Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2011
Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in the third quarter – driven by a rebound in activity in Germany and France. The figure matched the 0.2% seen in the second quarter and compares with a 0.5% rise in UK output in the third quarter. However, it remains down sharply on the 0.8% growth the eurozone posted in the first quarter and experts are still predicting an overall contraction in the fourth quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, eurozone GDP increased by 1.4% despite increasing fears over sovereign debt in the 17 nation euro area. Germany`s GDP rose 0.5% q/q and France`s at a rate 0.4%q/q. At the other end of the scale Greek output fell 5.2% in the third quarter compared to the year before. Quarter-on-uarter figures were not available. Germany`s said it growth was driven by consumer spending, despite the figure coming as the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany showed its lowest reading since August 2008 on worries over the state of Greece and Italy. Cyprus, the Netherlands and Portugal all posted falls in GDP compared to the second quarter. Growth of Eurozone`s GDP from July to September was the same as in the second quarter, but the outlook for the last three months of 2011 is dim, with the region`s deepening debt crisis weighing on sentiment and consumer confidence. The European Commission expects the economy of the 17 countries using the euro to shrink 0.1 percent in the last three months of the year against the third quarter and to stagnate in the first quarter of 2012.