The Lastest Macroeconomic News
18.09.2023 16:54 Global demand for uranium to rise 28% by 2030 in a business dominated by Russia
The World Nuclear Association (WNA) has released a report forecasting a significant increase in the global demand for uranium in nuclear reactors through to 2030. The report forecasts a 28% rise in demand by 2030 and nearly doubling by 2040 as governments worldwide expand nuclear power capacity to meet zero-carbon goals. However, uranium is fast becoming the new gas, as Russia`s state-owned Rosatom dominates the business of nuclear fuel and accounts for about half of global supplies. While many countries mine raw uranium, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Niger, Russia not only mines uranium, it is the global leader in processing it to produce the burnable Uranium 235 isotope, also known as “yellow cake.” That gives Russia new energy dependency to sell to replace its fading gas business. Russia¸s nuclear exports are booming and as it also offers financing for construction of its state of the art nuclear power plants (NPPs) emerging market countries are rushing to sign up for Russian nuclear power plant construction projects. There are some 40 projects either being built or negotiated around the world today.
17.06.2023 16:37 Consumer inflation in Russia accelerated slightly in May and the first half of June
In May, annual inflation in Russia grew slightly compared to the previous month and amounted to 2.5%. This was announced by Rosstat in early June. Earlier, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said that inflationary pressure is gradually increasing, and the regulator may have to increase the key interest rate in the coming months. In April, inflation was at the level of 2.3%. A year earlier, Rosstat recorded double-digit inflation, when prices soared amid a depreciation of the ruble due to the imposition of sanctions by the EU and the United States against Russia. This has created a high base effect this year, which has slowed the CPI up significantly and pushed inflation below its target of 4%. On a monthly basis, inflation in May amounted to 0.3% after 0.4% a month earlier. At the same time, the June figure may be slightly higher - for the period from June 1 to June 13, consumer prices rose by 0.2%. From the beginning of the year to June 13, inflation has already amounted to 2.6%, and the annual value of the indicator has reached 2.9%.
09.06.2023 12:37 Russia posted solid economic results in May
According to recent data from Rosstat, economic trends in Russia in May were positive in various sectors. They have shown growth in agricultural production, metal production, freight wagon production, etc. as the initial shock from the sanctions wears off and the economy begins to get a boost from production. Indeed, Russia`s economic performance over the past few months has been so strong that in its latest report, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation expressed concern about a possible overheating of the economy. In April, agricultural production in Russia rose significantly by 3.2%, partly thanks to a record harvest in 2022. Metallurgy, a key sector in Russia, recorded a notable 4.8% increase in production in April, helped by the fact that it is one of the less sanctioned sectors.
08.06.2023 16:11 Russia`s GDP growth rate will be approximately 1% in 2023
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said this week that in 2023 Russia`s GDP growth rate will be about 1%, while household incomes will increase. The Minister noted that the budget obligations of the state are fully implemented. The economy will continue to grow, he said. The real incomes of the population of the Russian Federation, according to A. Siluanov, began to recover from the end of 2022, and this trend will continue this year. The main merit for the Russian government, the minister considers the achievement of such a result, in which people do not feel the impact of sanctions to a large extent, and the standard of living in general remains no lower than before the introduction of restrictions. A balanced budget policy, the right industrial strategy, the accumulation of reserves in the NWF, as well as measures to support people helped stop the fall in GDP last year and have a positive effect on the Russian economy at the present time.
25.05.2023 18:35 The Russian economy shrank by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2023
Russia`s GDP decreased by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year. The growth rate a year earlier amounted to 3.0%. Such data were reported by Rosstat in mid-May. Initial expectations of a double-digit collapse of the Russian economy against the backdrop of sanctions imposed by the West in February 2022 were not confirmed, but still a slight reduction occurred. Earlier this month, the Ministry of Economy estimated a 2.2% decline in GDP in the first quarter, while the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was even more pessimistic - a decline of 2.3%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Rosstat, the indicator decreased by 2.7%. In the reporting period, the decrease in economic activity was caused by a reduction in wholesale and retail trade. Agriculture, manufacturing and especially construction, on the contrary, showed good growth.
14.05.2023 17:12 Annual inflation rate in Russia fell to 2.3% in April
Against the background of the underlying effect of rising consumer prices last spring, annual inflation in the Russian Federation fell to 2.3% in April, which is significantly below the Bank of Russia`s target of 4.0%. Such data were published by Rosstat on May 13. A little over a year ago, in February 2022, inflation accelerated sharply to 20% against the backdrop of Western sanctions. Since then, it has been gradually declining to current levels. The April inflation rate was more than one and a half times lower than in March - 3.5% and turned out to be more than four times lower than the value at the beginning of the year - 10%. At the same time, according to Rosstat, and earlier on the same topic, statements by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation were made, inflationary pressure in the economy remains against the background of the weakening ruble and the budget deficit, and in the coming months the figure is likely to grow. As a result, the regulator kept the key rate at 7.5%, even allowing it to be increased in the future if necessary.
26.04.2023 14:34 CentroCredit Bank`s credit rating has been affirmed at `ruBB`
Credit rating is very important for any bank. It is a benchmark for counterparties, as well as for customers, shows how much the bank can be trusted, including in difficult economic conditions. The higher the rating, the more stable the credit institution is. The rating characterizes the work of the bank`s management, and a worthy indicator indicates that it is possible and necessary to cooperate with the bank. In this vein, Centrocredit Bank is quite successfully coping with its tasks. As Andrey Tarasov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of CentroCredit Bank, told our correspondent, the bank`s credit rating regularly calculated by the Expert RA rating agency was affirmed at ruBB with a stable outlook. The indicator was achieved in the context of a difficult economic situation in the last year, against the backdrop of volatility in exchange rates and a decline in a number of sectors of the domestic economy. The management of the credit institution as a whole evaluates the preservation of the rating as a success, however, in the future it will strive to improve performance and further progressive development of the credit institution.
23.04.2023 16:17 ING analysts predict big shifts and weak growth in global trade in 2023
Since the end of 2022, global trade has shown clear signs of weakening amid declining demand, analysts at ING said. World trade has fallen by more than 5% since September. Looking at where demand has weakened the most, it is interesting to note that the fall in imports was fairly evenly distributed across the major economic blocs. Thus, this is not a story of falling gas imports to Europe, but rather a reflection of weaker commodities-related economic activity. Overall, analysts expect total trade to grow by just 1% year-over-year, with a 2% increase in trade in 2024. This means that trade should fall below the rate of global GDP growth and continue to grow slowly compared to long-term averages. World trade is still experiencing the effects of two major shocks in recent years. The extreme times of the pandemic have caused a lot of problems with supply curtailment and demand overheating. Currently, these problems seem to be quickly resolved, and supply chain problems on the same scale as in recent years are not expected.
14.04.2023 14:33 According to the IMF forecast, Russia`s GDP will grow by 0.7% in 2023 and by 1.3% in 2024
The IMF has adjusted upward its estimate of Russia`s GDP growth in 2023, according to a fund report dated April 12. The organization now estimates that the Russian economy will expand by 0.7% in 2023, up 0.4% from the previous forecast for the current year. In 2024, the economic growth rate in the Russian Federation will accelerate and reach 1.3%, which, however, is lower than the fund predicted earlier - 2.1%, because sanctions will continue to have a negative impact. Inflation in the Russian Federation in 2023, according to the IMF, averaged 13.8%. Analysts expect the figure to fall to below 4% - the target for the CBR - due to the low base, but in the second half of the year the figure will rise again. The fund estimates inflation at 7% in 2023 and a decline to 4.6% next year.
06.04.2023 20:43 Business activity in the Russian service sector increased significantly in March
In March, Russia`s services sector saw its biggest increase in business activity in two years. Output growth accelerated to its sharpest level since August 2020 as demand growth was supported by stronger demand conditions. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Services PMI stood at 58.1 in March, up from 53.1 a month earlier. Any result above 50 without change is an extension. The expansion of the capacity of service providers in the Russian Federation was facilitated by the resumption of the increase in work in progress. Although their level increased only slightly, the increase was recorded for the first time in 8 months.
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