The Lastest Macroeconomic News
25.10.2012 14:49 The United Kingdom`s GDP rose at a 1.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter clip in Q3 2012
The United Kingdom`s gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 1.0 per cent quarter-on-quarter clip in the three months ended in September, according to the latest data just out from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). That was the strongest reading since late 2007 and means that the economy exited from its double-dip recession. The consensus estimate had been for a reading of 0.6%, with some economists anticipating a rate of expansion of as low as 0.4%. Nevertheless, other economists, such as Goldman Sachs Asset Management`s Jim O`Neill had warned of the possibility for such a positive outcome. Versus a year ago GDP remained flat however, even if that was far better than the previous estimate for a contraction of 0.5% year-on-year during quarter two. As well, it must be pointed out that the ONS has indicated that: "it is not possible to quantify the overall impact of the Olympics and indeed some of the activity may have displaced other activity (for example, the comments on watching the Olympics in preference to films or DVDs)." Hence, no downwards adjustements have been made to the data. Nevertheless, the impact may have been quite substantial some economists seem to think.
23.10.2012 16:57 Russia`s GDP Growth Slows to 2.5% on Year in September 2012
Russian economic growth slowed in September partly due to the central bank`s policy of raising interest rates, which has failed to tame inflation and thwarted investment, Deputy Economy Minister Andrey Klepach said Friday "The Bank of Russia`s strict rate policy lowers investment, but doesn`t cool off the rise in consumer lending growth," Klepach said, speaking to reporters as he presented the GDP growth figures for September and the nine months of the year. He said the monetary policy tightening "proved to be unjustified, as it didn`t lower inflation, which is driven by non-monetary factors, but led to a higher cost of borrowing and lower investment activity." The central bank raised interest rates in early September, saying that it is more concerned about inflation than the slowing economic growth. Economists expect the bank to raise rates again by the end of the year. Klepach said Russian GDP growth stood at 2.5% year-on-year in Septemebr and at 0.4% on the previous month. The growth was mostly fueled by burgeoning domestic demand, which was up 4.4% year on year, while salaries were up 6.6%. Exports were mostly supported by the oil and gas sector, while imports stagnated on a monthly basis. Russian GDP growth stood at 3.8% for the first nine months of the year, while full-year growth is forecast at 3.5%. Klepach also noted that he sees a possibility of capital inflows at the end of the year, partly due to the Rosneft (ROSN.RS ) purchase of BP PLC (BP). He denied any knowelege of details of the possible deal.
07.10.2012 12:42 The IMF has cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next year
The IMF has cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next year and called on politicians in the eurozone and the US to take “decisive” steps to restore confidence, a German newspaper said. Citing excerpts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook to be released early next week, the Handelsblatt business daily said that the Washington-based body predicted world economic growth of 3.3 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year. In July, the IMF issued forecasts of 3.5 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. The German-language paper quoted the report as saying that the “further cooling of growth in the world economy this year and next goes along with a clear increase in downward risks.” The forecast depends in particular on “whether decisive political steps are taken in the eurozone and the US to stabilize confidence,” the paper quoted the report as saying. The IMF forecasts a shrinking of the eurozone economy of 0.4 percent this year and a small positive growth of 0.2 percent next year. The IMF cut its forecast for China to 8.2 percent, for India to 6 percent and for Brazil to 4 percent, according to Handelsblatt. The fund also saw a “further drop in inflation” given the sluggish global economic output and recommended additional cuts in interest rates to stimulate activity.
21.09.2012 19:15 Russia`s GDP grew 0.1 percent in August 2012 compared with the previous month
Russia`s GDP in August 2012 grew 0.1 percent compared with the previous month, Economy Minister of Russia Andrey Belousov said. In July 2012 Russia`s GDP fell 0.2 percent compared with the previous month and grew 2.6 percent with the same month of the previous year. Russia`s economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, exceeding a prior forecast of 3.4 percent, while consumer prices will advance 7 percent, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said. The ministry raised the inflation forecast for this year from 5 percent to 6 percent, which is still the central bank`s estimate. Consumer prices will rise 5 percent to 6 percent in 2013, a range half a point higher than the ministry`s earlier forecast and Bank Rossii`s goal. Russia`s industrial output is expected to grow 3.6 percent in annual terms in 2012, up from 3.1 earlier forecast, Klepach said. Capital flight from Russia could reach $50-60 billion in 2012, he said, reiterating an earlier estimate maintaining that outflow could exceed $50 billion.
17.09.2012 19:12 US industrial production fell 1.2 percent in August, biggest drop in more than 3 years
U.S. industrial production fell in August by the largest amount in more than three years as factories produced fewer cars and other manufactured goods and Hurricane Isaac triggered shutdowns along the Gulf Coast. Industrial production dropped 1.2 percent last month compared to July, the Federal Reserve said Friday. It was the biggest setback since a 1.7 percent decline in March 2009 when the country was in recession. Manufacturing output, the most important component of industrial production, fell 0.7 percent, led by a 4 percent drop in output at auto plants. Manufacturing helped lift the country out of the Great Recession, but it slowed in the spring as consumers cut back on spending, businesses invested less in machinery and demand for U.S. exports was hurt by a global weakness. Output in mining, which also includes oil and gas production, fell 1.8 percent in August compared to July with much of that weakness attributed to precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of Hurricane Isaac in late August. Output at the nation`s utilities dropped 3.6 percent in August after posting a 1.3 percent increase in July.
06.09.2012 14:42 Euro area GDP down by 0.2% and EU27 GDP down by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2012
GDP decreased by 0.2% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.1% in the EU27 during the second quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2012, growth rates were 0.0% in both zones. Compared with the second quarter of 2011, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27, after 0.0% and +0.1% respectively in the previous quarter. During the second quarter of 2012, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU27 (after -0.2% and -0.1% respectively in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU27 (after -1.3% and -0.7%). Exports rose by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU27 (after +0.7% and +0.5%). Imports increased by 0.9% in both zones (after -0.2% in both zones).
30.08.2012 11:14 U.S. Economy Grew At 1.7 Percent Annual Rate In Second Quarter
The U.S. economy fared slightly better than initially thought in the second quarter, but the pace of growth remained too slow to shut the door on further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.7 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate on Wednesday as stronger export growth offset a pull-back in restocking by businesses wary of sluggish domestic demand. That was up from last month`s 1.5 percent estimate and in line with economists` expectations. The economy grew at a 2.0 percent pace in the January-March period. The report also showed that after-tax corporate profits unexpectedly rose at 1.1 percent rate after sinking 8.6 percent in the first quarter. First-quarter economic growth was revised up to show strong export growth, despite slowing global demand. Trade contributed 0.32 percentage point to GDP growth instead of subtracting a third of a percentage point, as previously reported.
16.08.2012 18:25 Euro area and EU27 GDP down by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2012
GDP fell by 0.2% in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27 during the second quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2012, growth rates were 0.0% in both zones. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27 in the second quarter of 2012, after 0.0% and +0.1% respectively in the previous quarter. Euro area annual inflation was 2.4% in July 2012, stable compared to June. A year earlier the rate was 2.6%. Monthly inflation was -0.5% in July 2012. EU annual inflation was 2.5% in July 2012, also stable compared to June. A year earlier the rate was 2.9%. Monthly inflation was -0.4% in July 2012. In June 2012 compared with May 2012, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.9% in the EU27. In May production rose by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. In June 2012 compared with June 2011, industrial production dropped by 2.1% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU27.
29.07.2012 13:38 The United States economy slowed in second quarter of 2012
The United States economy slowed in the second quarter amid weak consumer spending, government cuts and a rise in imports from foreign countries. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation`s economic health, grew at an annual rate of 1.5% from April to June, the Commerce Department said. That`s down significantly from a 2% rate in the first three months of the year. The Commerce Department also released revisions going back to the start of 2009. While the revisions showed that growth in 2010 was weaker than previously thought, 2009 and 2011 were slightly stronger. The second-quarter slowdown was not entirely surprising given consumer spending has been weak recently, the government has been cutting its spending and hiring has been tepid. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney were expecting to see 1.4% growth. The economy needs to grow around 3% a year to bring the unemployment rate down significantly, and since consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the economy, it too needs to grow around 3%. But spending slowed to 1.5%, down from 2.4% in the first quarter, showing that households are continuing to deleverage three years after the recession. Shoppers cut back on buying big-ticket items like automobiles, as well as smaller items like clothing and groceries. As usual, the U.S. also imported more goods and services from foreign countries than it exported, which subtracts from economic growth. Government cuts, especially at the state and local level, also weighed on growth. Spending by businesses remained a small strength. Businesses increased their purchases of equipment and software to a 7.2% annual rate.
22.07.2012 18:38 Russia`s economy may expand at a faster pace than expected this year
Russia`s economy may expand at a faster pace than expected this year, after growth in the first half topped the government`s forecast, the country`s economic development minister Andrei Belousov said. "There are a number of signs that the economy is really growing somewhat faster than we had planned -- the rapid growth of investment and decent figures for the manufacturing industry," Mr. Belousov said. Preliminary data show that gross domestic product increased 3.9% in the second quarter, and 4.4% overall in the first half. Growth slowed somewhat in the second quarter from the 4.9% pace seen in the first. Still, growth over the first six months is above the Moscow`s forecast of 3.4% in all of 2012. "By year end, we expect slightly better growth than predicted, but I don`t want to give an exact estimate at the moment," he added. In June, Mr. Belousov said growth may reach 3.7% or 4% for the year. Mr. Belousov also said that figures released by the Russian Federal Statistics Service that showed industrial production stagnated in June, were simply a seasonal anomaly.