The Lastest Macroeconomic News
15.03.2013 19:02 In January 2013 industrial production fell by 0.4% in both the euro area and the EU27
In January 2013 compared with December 2012, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.4% in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27, according to estimates released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In December 2012 production grew by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. In January 2013 compared with January 2012, industrial production decreased by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU27. In January 2013 compared with December 2012, production of durable consumer goods fell by 1.4% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU27. Capital goods decreased by 1.2% in both zones. Production of energy dropped by 1.0% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU27. Intermediate goods rose by 0.1% in the euro area and fell by 0.1% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.9% and 1.3% respectively. Among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production fell in nine and rose in nine. The largest decreases were registered in Finland (-4.1%), Luxembourg (-3.8%) and Latvia (-3.5%), and the highest increases in Lithuania (+4.4%), Denmark (+4.3%) and Portugal (+3.5%). In January 2013 compared with January 2012, production of durable consumer goods fell by 5.5% in the euro area and by 4.3% in the EU27. Intermediate goods dropped by 3.1% and 3.4% respectively. Capital goods decreased by 2.6% in both zones. Production of energy increased by 0.9% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.1% and 2.2% respectively. Among the Member States for which data are available, industrial production fell in eleven and rose in seven. The largest decreases were registered in Sweden (-5.9%), Finland (-5.4%), Greece and Spain (both -5.0%), and the highest increases in Bulgaria and Lithuania (both +8.0%) and Estonia (+5.5%).
05.03.2013 14:22 China maintains its 2013 GDP growth target unchanged at around 7.5 percent
China maintains its 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth target unchanged at around 7.5 percent this year to leave some leeway for economic restructuring, according to a government work report to be delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at the annual legislative session Tuesday. The targeted growth also aims to create jobs and improve people`s wellbeing, according to the report. This marks the second consecutive year for the world`s second-largest economy to target growth at 7.5 percent. In 2012, the government cut the forecast rate for the first time in eight years from a longstanding annual goal of 8 percent. China`s economic growth eased further to a 13-year low of 7.8 percent in 2012, from 9.2 percent recorded in 2011 and 10.3 percent in 2010. The country`s GDP stood at 51.9 trillion yuan (about 8.3 trillion U.S. dollars) last year. In 2011, the government announced it targeted an average of 7 percent annual GDP growth in the years of 2011-2015, or the country`s 12th Five-Year Plan period.
03.03.2013 15:41 Brazil`s gross domestic product grew just 0.9 percent in 2012
Brazil`s gross domestic product grew just 0.9 percent in 2012, the government said. It was the worst annual result since 2009, when the GDP contracted 0.3 percent. The GDP grew 2.7 percent in 2011 and ballooned 7.5 percent in 2010. Brazil`s statistics bureau, known by its Portuguese acronym as the IBGE, said on its website that the country`s service sector posted the best performance last year, growing 1.7 percent. Industrial output dropped 0.8 percent and agricultural production fell 2.3 percent. The IBGE said the country`s GDP totaled 4.4 trillion reals ($2.2 trillion) last year, while per capita GDP amounted to 22,400 reals ($11,200). At the start of 2012, the government forecast annual GDP growth of 4.5 percent, but gradually lowered its expectations. "Employment levels are excellent and more Brazilians are buying cars and their own homes," Finance Minister Guido Mantega said at a news conference. "Although the GDP was lower than expected, the international crisis did not knock on the doors of Brazilian families." Mantega said that in the last quarter of 2012 GDP grew 0.6 percent and that January figures show that the economy is improving. "The scenario for 2013 is more benign," he added.
27.02.2013 11:29 Russia`s seasonally adjusted GDP decreased 0.3 percent month-on-month in January 2013
Russia`s seasonally adjusted GDP decreased 0.3 percent month-on-month in January 2013, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. This is the first time Russia has experienced a decline in seasonally adjusted GDP in the last ten months. Russia`s GDP grew 1.6 percent in January 2013 compared with the same month of 2012. Industrial production decreased 1.5 percent in January in annual terms. Russia`s economy will grow less than previously forecast this year as the deteriorating global outlook weighs on demand and inflation hurts domestic consumers. Gross domestic product will expand 3.3 percent in 2013, less than the 3.6 percent expansion forecast in the fall, the World Bank said in a report today. Output will begin to recover in 2014, with GDP advancing 3.6 percent. Russia, the world`s largest energy exporter, has limited prospects to bolster growth through traditional channels as oil prices hold near record highs, according to the report. Europe is facing a deepening recession, while consumer-price growth in Russia is curbing the household spending that accounts for about half the economy.
18.02.2013 23:58 GDP fell by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU27 during the fourth quarter of 2012
GDP fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.5% in the EU27 during the fourth quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2012, growth rates were -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.9% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU27 in the fourth quarter of 2012, after -0.6% and -0.4% respectively in the previous quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2012, GDP in the United States was stable compared with the previous quarter (after +0.8% in the third quarter of 2012). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP rose by 1.5% in the United States (after +2.6% in the previous quarter). Over the whole year 20123, GDP fell by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27.
14.02.2013 13:17 Japan`s GDP contracted an annualized 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012
Japan`s economy unexpectedly shrank last quarter as falling exports and a business investment slump outweighed improved consumption, bolstering Prime Minister Shinzo Abe`s case for more monetary stimulus to end deflation. Gross domestic product contracted an annualized 0.4 percent, following a revised 3.8 percent fall in the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 0.4 percent growth. Nominal GDP shrank 0.4 percent on quarter. The prolonging of Japan`s recession into a third quarter shows that benefits from a weaker yen and rising stocks have yet to be felt. The lower house of parliament passed Abe`s fiscal stimulus package today, while Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues raised their assessment for the economy and left monetary policy unchanged. Japanese exports fell for seven months through December as Europe`s crisis dragged on shipments and a dispute with China over islands claimed by both nations hurts demand for products such as Toyota Motor Corp.`s cars. Net exports contributed 0.2 percentage point to the contraction, the report showed. A 0.4 percent on-quarter rise in private consumption, which accounts for more than half of GDP, was not enough to avert a contraction even as colder-than-usual weather spurred sales of winter clothing and other items. Business investment fell 2.6 percent from the previous quarter, the fourth consecutive drop in capital spending, even as some companies said their earnings outlook is improving due to the weaker yen.
30.01.2013 21:01 Russia`s GDP increased by 2.4 percent in December 2012
The growth of Russia`s gross domestic product (GDP) totaled last December at 2.4 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the Russian economy grew by 2.2 percent, said the Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Andrei Klepatch. Taking into account seasonal factors, the increase was 0.3 percent, he told reporters. According to Klepatch the Ministry`s forecast for the Russian GDP growth for the whole year 2012 remains at 3.5 percent. He expects that Russia`s GDP will increase in the first and second quarter of 2013 by more than two percent. "The increase in the first and in the second quarter will be at about two percen,t for the third and fourth (quarter) it is expected a significant acceleration", he said.
10.01.2013 15:36 Russia`s 2012 Consumer Price Inflation Reaches 6.6%
Russia saw a slight pick-up in headline consumer price inflation in December, although a moderation in underlying price pressures suggests the central bank may keep interest rates on hold for now. The data, which was in line with forecasts, suggests that after recently hiking rates to clamp down on price rises, the central bank is likely to shift its focus towards boosting economic growth. Headline consumer price inflation rose to 6.6 percent in December and in 2012 as a whole from 6.5 percent in November and 6.1 percent in 2011, data published by the Federal Statistics Service showed. That was above the central bank`s official 5-6 percent target range for the year. But core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 5.7 percent compared with a year earlier - an improvement on November when annual core inflation was 5.8 percent. A poor harvest last summer, coupled with the impact of increases in household utility prices that were delayed from before Presidential elections last March, led inflation to pick up sharply in the second half of last year from a post-Soviet low of 3.6 percent in April. Concerns about the rapid acceleration led the central bank to raise all its main interest rates by 25 basis points last September, despite concerns that tighter monetary would crimp economic growth. But a surprise fall in inflation in November was a sign that higher food prices had not fed through into inflationary expectations as many had feared, suggesting that the one-off monetary tightening in September had succeeded in containing the problem. The decline in core inflation in December provided further evidence that despite the rise in the headline rate, underlying inflation pressures are moderating. Analysts polled by Reuters late last month forecast that the central bank would begin cutting interest rates in the second quarter, as its concerns shift from controlling inflation towards stimulating the slowing economy. They forecast that inflation would fall to 6.1 percent by the end of 2013 - slightly above the central bank`s 5-6 percent target for the year.
06.01.2013 12:24 Growth of world economy in 2013 will be 3,2% in comparison with 3,1% in 2012
Economists surveyed by Reuters predict growth of world economy in 2013 for 3,2% in comparison with 3,1% in 2012. Thus, economy growth in 2013 to year will be insignificant and, besides, will depend as before on the USA and emerging markets because of stagnation in Europe. In many respects the forecast for 2013 depends on, whether developing countries will be able, such as Brazil and China, at last to show economic recovery which economists expected from them in 2012. Macroeconomic data from the People`s Republic of China testify lately that recession of the Chinese economy which appeared more long, than was expected, nevertheless ended, and in 2013 growth of gross domestic product of Heavenly Empire can exceed 8%. Experts don`t rest hope of acceleration of economic growth in the countries with the developed economy yet because many of them are still burdened with financial problems. Threats of stability of world economy habitually proceed from debt crisis in the eurozone captured by recession and possible further geopolitical shocks in the Middle East. The Swiss bank Credit Suisse also predicts low rate of restoration for world economy. For 2013, allegedly, growth of world GDP will be at the level of 3,4% in real terms that is 0,3 percentage points higher than in the previous year.
30.12.2012 20:01 The World Bank raised its 2013 economic growth forecast for China
The World Bank raised its 2013 economic growth forecast for China, citing the government`s fiscal stimulus plans and faster approval of large investment projects. China`s growth is projected to recover in 2013 to 8.4 percent due to the combination of monetary easing, local government fiscal stimulus, accelerated approval of investment projects and an upswing in the business cycle, the World Bank said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update published Wednesday. The bank also forecast that growth will reach 7.9 percent for 2012, significantly down from 9.3 percent in 2011. This was caused mainly by a slowdown in domestic demand following policy tightening to cool an overheating housing sector, and weaker external demand from high-income economies. The World Bank`s latest forecast for 2013 is higher than its earlier projection of 8.1 percent in a report released in October, but is slightly lower than the estimate made last week by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank, which forecast that GDP would grow by 8.5 percent next year, fuelled by government investment in infrastructure projects.