The Lastest Macroeconomic News
26.02.2019 14:48 Asia Will Drive Global Economy In 2019
Asia will drive the global economy in 2019, according to an analysis of 40 major economies based on inflation and GDP growth forecasts by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The company`s analysis categorizes each country by "Low", "Moderate" and "High" GDP growth rate together with "High Inflationary Economies" during the period 2014-2018 (annual average). Principally located in Asia and accounting for more than half of the world`s GDP growth in 2019, high-growth economies include Indonesia, India, Malaysia, The Philippines, China, Turkey and Ireland. Amid the ongoing trade war with the US, which is likely to have a significant impact on the Chinese economy, the government has initiated a number of steps for sustaining the buoyancy of the economy. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has relaxed its restriction on large-scale investments by local government in May 2018, and in October 2018, the People`s Bank of China increased the refinancing and rediscounting quota by CNY150 billion (US$21.96 billion) to support small and micro enterprises.
22.02.2019 12:49 World Bank: Price tag for climate-smart infra is 4.5% of GDP
The World Bank on Thursday said developing countries like the Philippines should ramp up spending on “climate-smart” infrastructure to help stay on track to limit climate change to up to 2°C. In its “Beyond the Gap” report, the Washington-based multilateral lender said infrastructure spending of 4.5 percent of gross domestic product would enable universal access to water, sanitation and electricity, as well as better mobility, food security and flood protection. “Our analysis clearly shows that developing countries can build the climate-smart infrastructure they need by spending around 4.5 percent of GDP. The good news is this is close to what many countries already spend,” said Kristalina Georgieva, interim president of the World Bank Group. “With the right choices, infrastructure can be built that helps achieve globally agreed emissions targets. The focus must be on smarter and more resilient investments, not necessarily more money,” Georgieva added.
14.02.2019 18:00 German economy narrowly avoids recession
Germany`s economy just about avoided falling into recession during the final three months of last year. Europe`s largest economy registered zero growth during the fourth quarter of 2018, the country`s Federal Statistics Office said. That means it avoided two consecutive quarters of contraction, which is the usual definition of a recession. A weak trade performance dragged on the economy, and consumer spending remained subdued. The zero growth recorded in the October-to-December period followed a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter. Reasons for slower growth last year include a slowdown in the global economy and a weaker car sector, with German consumers less willing to buy new cars amid confusion over new emission standards. In addition, low water levels, particularly in the Rhine, affected growth by holding back movement of some goods.
07.02.2019 15:33 Is Japan`s Sun Rising?
At a time of rising populism and authoritarianism around the world, Japan stands out as a relative island of social and economic stability. And though it owes its current situation to unique economic and geopolitical circumstances, it might still have something to teach other developed countries. When I participated in the Chatham House/Daiwa Research Institute conference on the post-Brexit Japan-UK relationship in Tokyo last month, it was my first visit back to Japan since my departure from Goldman Sachs almost six years ago. Prior to this trip, I had been visiting the country regularly since 1988, so it was helpful to see things from a slightly more detached perspective. By and large, Japan in 2019 feels relatively stable when compared to other advanced economies. A decade from now, I would not be surprised if it continues to show the highest real (inflation-adjusted) per capita GDP growth rate in the G7. True, Japan`s annual GDP growth has averaged just 1.1% so far this decade; but its declining population and shrinking workforce is already translating into stronger per capita performance. In fact, given the country`s demographic challenges, it might well be outperforming its long-term growth potential.
30.01.2019 13:44 Italy central bank slashes 2019 GDP growth forecast
The Italian economy will grow just 0.6 percent this year, the Bank of Italy said, slashing a projection of 1.0 percent made a month ago due to trade tensions and a weaker investment outlook. The latest forecasts are bad news for the radical government which took office in June last year and is trying to boost the flagging economy without falling foul of European Union budget rules. In its quarterly economic bulletin the central bank said activity had slowed more sharply than expected over the second half of last year, which will produce a negative carry-over effect on 2019. It said gross domestic product, which fell 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018, probably contracted again in the fourth quarter, producing what economists define as a “technical recession” of two straight quarters of declining GDP. National statistics institute ISTAT will release official Q4 data on Jan. 31.
25.01.2019 18:51 Russia GDP growth up 1.9 percent year-on-year in December 2018
The Russian economy expanded by 1.9 percent in December year-on-year after growing by 1.8 percent the previous month, the economy ministry said on Friday. The ministry increased its estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2018 to 2 percent from 1.8 percent due to a significant rise in construction activity. In 2017, GDP growth in Russia was 1.6 percent, according to the most recent estimate from the Russian statistics service. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its projections for Russian economy growth in 2019 and 2020 by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 1.6 and 1.7 percent respectively, including due to deterioration of the medium-term forecast for oil prices, the IMF said in a report on Monday.
16.01.2019 11:56 Global debt now three times size of world economy
Global debt rose 12 per cent in the September quarter to $US244 trillion ($339 trillion), and is now more than three times the size of the world`s economic output, according to the Institute of International Finance. Global debt has risen over 3 percentage points since 2017, exceeding 318 per cent of GDP in the third quarter of 2018, the IIF said in a report, slightly lower than the all-time high of 320 per cent in the third quarter of 2016, helped by the cyclical pickup in global growth. Most of the rise in global debt levels since 2008—more than 75 per cent—is from non-financial companies and governments worldwide, the institute said. Total government debt exceeded $US65 trillion in 2018, up from $US37 trillion a decade ago. Over the same period, non-financial corporate debt rose by $US27 trillion to more than $US72 trillion last year, to hover near a record high of 92 per cent of GDP.
07.01.2019 12:31 10 predictions for the global economy in 2019
The global economy started 2018 with strong, synchronized growth. But as the year progressed, momentum faded and growth trends diverged. The US economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal stimulus enacted early in the year, while the economies of the Eurozone, the UK, Japan and China began to weaken. These divergent trends will persist in 2019. IHS Markit predicts global growth will edge down from 3.2% in 2018 to 3.1% in 2019, and keep decelerating over the next few years. One major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from over 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end. With the anticipated escalation in trade conflicts, a contraction in world trade could drag down the global economy even more. At the same time, the combined effects of rising interest rates and surging equity and commodity market volatility mean that financial conditions worldwide are tightening. These risks point to the increasing vulnerability of the global economy to further shocks and the rising probability of a recession in the next couple of years.
06.01.2019 14:22 What will happen to the US economy in 2019?
The final jobs report of 2018 released Friday, boasting 312,000 jobs added in December, puts the U.S. economy on track for another relatively strong showing in 2019, with economists predicting a slowdown coming toward the end of the year. Unemployment is one of the factors in the latest data influencing such predictions. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in December, but some economists attribute that mostly to more people entering the workforce and more people quitting their jobs — a sign that they believe they can get a job, and possibly higher pay, elsewhere. Over much of next year, the unemployment rate is expected to be around 3.7 percent before rising slightly in 2020, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia`s quarterly survey of forecasters. The forecasters also anticipate real GDP to drop slightly from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent before falling further to 2.1 percent in 2020. Inflation is not expected to take off any time soon, despite the tightened labor market. Core inflation will likely tick up to 2.4 percent from 2.2 percent in 2018, according to the forecast. And despite the recent decline in the stock market, consumer confidence remains high, which economists say is a good sign that the economy will keep running at a steady pace in the near-term. So if things look good now, why are forecasters predicting slower times ahead?
31.12.2018 14:21 World economy to grow 3.5% next year
The world economy will see an annual growth of 3.5% in 2019, according to a forecast by economists of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The forecast was contained in a book released on Thursday. The slowdown in world economic growth next year is attributable to expected weakening of the US economy - the world`s largest - after its elevated growth this year as well as financial market turbulence, limited policy tools of major economies to handle an easing and trade frictions among major trading powers, according to authors of the Yellow Book of World Economy 2019, published by the Social Sciences Academic Press (China). In the US, major economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) and employment have been close to historic highs. That means 2018 may be a peak for the US economy, said Sun Jie, an author of the book and economist at the Institute of World Economics and Politics on Thursday.
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