The Lastest Macroeconomic News
30.12.2019 20:58 QNB expects modest acceleration of global GDP to 3.4% in 2020
Driven by “easier” monetary policy around the world, in particular the Fed`s dovish pivot to cutting interest rates, a “modest acceleration” of global GDP growth to around 3.4% is expected in 2020, QNB has said in its weekly economic commentary. That is despite the ongoing US-China trade war, global manufacturing recession and other risks to the outlook, QNB said. However, QNB is concerned that the world has become too dependent on monetary policy, which is becoming less effective. There is also a growing risk that low global interest rates are inflating debt and asset price bubbles. Therefore, it is important that fiscal policy can respond to any substantial negative shocks that hit the global economy. In this week`s article, QNB first assessed the current fiscal stance (i.e., whether fiscal policy is a headwind or tailwind for the economy). It has then considered three key constraints on fiscal policy. The need to ensure government debt sustainability and the difficulties arising from both political polarization and vested interests.
11.12.2019 15:02 The unemployment rate in Ukraine is reduced
The unemployment rate in Ukraine in recent months tends to decrease. So, in the second quarter of 2019, the indicator reached 7.8% compared to 9.2% a quarter earlier. In absolute terms, the decrease amounted to 235 thousand people, therefore, the total number of unemployed in the country decreased to 1.4 million people. Such data were published by the State Statistics Service. The report also notes that in 2018 the number of unemployed was 1.57 million people, and a year earlier - 1.85 million people. The country is gradually emerging from the crisis and more and more jobs are being created in the economy. However, often people do not go to the exchange when looking for a new job, but make attempts to find it on their own.
10.12.2019 14:52 Bitcoin: trading dominance on Binance remains above 40%
According to a new analytical review of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, released in early December, the main cryptocurrency Bitcoin has been holding a share in the trade for more than 40% for five consecutive months. Such information was published by the research division of the financial giant Binance Research. The dominance value was calculated by analysts as the ratio of the trading volume in which bitcoin is involved to the total volume of spot transactions conducted on the platform during the month. The review notes that the share of the main cryptocurrency grew by 1.45% in November compared with the previous month and amounted to about 47%. In August, the figure was 45.5%, and in September it also exceeded 40%.
08.12.2019 13:10 The main threats to the Russian economy
The main global macroeconomic factor is the aggravation of trade disputes in the world, the creation of additional trade barriers and, as a result, the slowdown in global economic growth. For the Russian Federation, this is, first and foremost, a reduction in the price of commodities such as oil, natural gas, and metals. Geopolitics, according to analysts, now has a very large negative impact on the economic environment, reducing production activity and, as a result, demand on world markets. IMF forecasts in this regard only confirm the trend. The world economic growth in 2019 will be the lowest since the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and will reach only 3%. In addition to geopolitical, experts identify cyclical factors as additional causes of economic slowdown.
27.11.2019 12:23 Czech confidence fell in November – again
Confidence in the domestic economy fell slightly in November compared to the previous month, mainly due to a decline in confidence among consumers, where it reached its weakest level in the last 5 years. The decline in household confidence was due to greater concerns about the deterioration of their own economic situation in the future, while concerns about the overall economic situation remained unchanged, as did concerns about rising unemployment. Owing to the more negative news coming from abroad, household confidence has been gradually decreasing this year, reaching the weakest level in the last 5 years. Despite this development, household consumption remains favourable for the time being, although the November data with the negative balance (more negative answers than positive for the first time since October 2014) suggests that household consumption might gradually decline if household sentiment does not improve soon.
19.11.2019 21:31 Russian government plays catch up on spending
Russian budget spending growth materially accelerated in October, as the government is trying to fulfil the annual spending plan. This is a positive sign for corporate activity and also an argument for the central bank to pause the rate cut cycle. The preliminary budget data for 10M19 points towards a material acceleration in the federal spending growth from 5% YoY in 9M19 (downgraded from the initial 6% estimate) to 22% YoY in October. Approaching year-end, the government has started to catch up on fulfilling the spending plans, and there`s more acceleration to come.10M19 spending is 74% of the annual plan vs. 76% allocated in 10M18. In order to comply with this year`s plan, overall spending growth should pick up from 7% YoY for 10M19 to 18% YoY in November-December 2019. The key component contributing to this pick up was the so-called `National Economy` item, which represents spending on infrastructure and other direct economic support measures, also part of the `National Projects` programme: the growth of this targeted spending item skyrocketed from 4% YoY in 9M19 to 42% YoY in October.
14.11.2019 17:19 Russia`s economic growth picks up in Q3 to 1.7%
Russia`s economic growth picked up in the third quarter and slightly exceeded market expectations thanks to a boost from an increase in gas exports, the Federal Statistics Service said on Wednesday. The statistics service Rosstat said gross domestic product grew by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2019 in year-on-year terms, up from 0.9% in the second quarter. Analysts polled by Reuters had on average expected GDP to grow by 1.6%, while the central bank had forecast it at 0.8%-1.3%. “Based on the data upon which this preliminary third-quarter GDP estimate was formed, we see that it was significantly influenced by the increase in wholesale trade turnover, in particular the gas trade,” said the head of Rosstat, Pavel Malkov.
30.10.2019 12:09 The unemployment rate in Russia continues to remain at a fairly low level
The unemployment rate in Russia rose in September, although it continues to remain at a fairly low level. Last month, Rosstat calculated the figure at 4.5% compared with 4.3% a month earlier. In August, unemployment in our country reached a historic low, and indeed in recent months it has been near the lowest levels. At the same time, analysts note that the distribution of unemployment rates in the regions is extremely heterogeneous. So, if in Moscow and St. Petersburg this indicator is 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively, then, for example, in Ingushetia exceeds 26%. In other republics of the North Caucasus, the situation on the labor market is not the most favorable, although the situation here is still better - 9-13%. North Ossetia-Alania and the Stavropol Territory stand apart - 3.7% and 4.8%. Rosstat reported that, as of October 23, 2019, the registered unemployment rate was only 0.8% of the economically active population. In absolute terms, this is only 642.1 thousand people.
29.10.2019 20:23 Russia accounts for 97% of the trade in the EEU
Russia dominates the trade within the Eurasia Economic Union (EEU). In 2018 trade with Russia accounted for 96.9% of all trade within the Eurasian Union; trade among the four smaller countries accounted for the remaining 3.1%. In 2000, total trade turnover between the five countries that would one day form the EAEU was worth $14.1bn. Of this, turnover between Russia and the four other members stood at $13.9bn – meaning Russia accounted for 98.6% of trade within the future bloc. The total value of trade within these countries rose steadily over the next decade or so, reaching a peak of $73.1bn in 2012. Then the 2014-16 regional slowdown (driven by the slump in global energy prices and Western sanctions on Russia after it annexed Crimea) led to a sharp decline in trade within the EAEU. In a way, the formation of the EAEU could be seen as Russia`s response to the economic slowdown and a way to guarantee a captive market for its exports. Yet even with the creation of the EAEU in 2015, total trade turnover between member economies has not recovered to its 2012 peak.
24.10.2019 18:43 S.Korea`s GDP growth slows in Q3
South Korea`s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed down in the third quarter on lower fiscal spending and external uncertainties, central bank data showed Thursday. The real GDP, adjusted for inflation, grew 0.4 percent in the July-September quarter compared with the prior quarter, according to the Bank of Korea (BOK). It was a downturn from a 1.0 percent expansion in the second quarter. The real GDP contracted 0.4 percent in the first quarter on a quarterly basis. The third-quarter GDP growth missed market expectations of 0.5-0.6 percent. It was attributable to the government`s lower contribution to economic growth in addition to the lingering external uncertainties. Fiscal spending raised the GDP expansion by 0.2 percentage points in the third quarter, lower than a 1.2 percentage point contribution in the second quarter. The private sector`s contribution to the GDP rebounded from minus 0.2 percentage points in the second quarter to 0.2 percentage points in the third quarter. Net export lifted the GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points in the third quarter, marking the first rebound in a year.
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