The Lastest Macroeconomic News
07.02.2017 12:47 Italy Per-Capita GDP Lowest Since 1998
Almost two decades after the creation of the euro single currency, Italians are proving to be the big losers among the 19 member countries. Gross domestic product per capita in real terms shrank 0.4% in the last 18 years, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the European Union statistics office up to 2015 and estimates for 2016. While Italy`s economy expanded 6.2% since 1998, its population increased by 6.6% over the period—thus accounting for the per-head drop. “The comparison with other countries clearly shows that the Italian economy has expanded at too-slow a pace over the period,” said Loredana Federico, an economist at UniCredit Bank AG in Milan. “It will be very difficult for Italy to close, in the years to come, the gap with other economies that already returned to the pre-crisis level or even surpassed it.”
04.02.2017 20:49 Euler Hermes: Global GDP expected to grow 2.8 per cent in 2017
Euler Hermes, a leading provider of trade-related credit insurance solutions, expects the world GDP to grow by 2.8 per cent year on year in 2017. With the smooth transition of the US presidency from Barack Obama to Donald Trump being completed, the focus on the global economy shifts now to the four blocks United States, Euro zone, China and the Emerging Markets. “This slight pick-up may be due to a large extent to the acceleration in the United States, the exit from recession in Russia and Brazil, and the resilience in Europe and Asia,” said Jules Kappeler, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Euler Hermes GCC. Jules added: “We expect that the GDP growth journey will continue in the GCC and particularly in the UAE, but at a slower pace due to the impact of the oil price and the time needed for the fiscal reforms to bear fruits.”
02.02.2017 13:25 Russian economy may be over the worst, returning to growth
The Russian economy, hurt by weak energy prices and Western sanctions, returned to growth late last year after seven quarters of contraction, official data suggested on Wednesday. Russia`s statistics service surprised economists by finding gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by only 0.2 percent in 2016. That implies fourth-quarter growth could have been around 1 percent year-on-year if there were no revisions to data for the previous three quarters. "The important thing is that the economy showed a stronger recovery at the end of last year," said Dmitry Polevoy, chief Russia economist at ING Bank. "Growing private consumption and investments will fuel headline GDP growth, and an improving expansion of exports will mostly offset the rebound in imports," he added.
31.01.2017 08:36 Violence Cost World Economy $13.6 Trillion
The total economic impact of violence on the world economy in 2015 was estimated to be $13.6 trillion, according to a recent report endorsed by the World Economic Forum, which particularly highlighted attacks in Turkey, France and Belgium. The figures in the “Economic Value of Peace” report prepared by the Institute for Economics and Peace are expressed in purchasing power parity terms, Anatolya quoted WEF report as saying. “The economic impact of violence in Europe decreased by 8% in 2015. The main trend in the data for the region is related to terrorism which saw a very significant increase albeit off a very low base. Terrorist attacks in Turkey, France, Belgium and other parts of Europe, resulted in an increase of 1,700% in the economic impact of terrorism in Europe,” the report read, adding that the cost of terrorism in Europe is still only 6% of the cost in the Middle East and North Africa region and 34% of South Asia.
29.01.2017 13:59 PwC predicts India`s contribution to world GDP will reach 17% this year
PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) economists predict that India`s share in the global GDP will rise to almost 17% in 2017, as it along with China will continue to drive global growth. “Asia will remain the fastest-growing region of the world, but the spotlight will shift away from China to India and Indonesia,” PwC`s Global Economic Watch said. In the report, PwC predicted that Indonesia is set to become the world`s 16th trillion dollar economy. “We think Indonesia is on course to join the elite `trillion dollar` economy club this year”. The report also estimated China`s growth to remain at around the 6% mark. While the study also conjectured that “China will feel the costs of higher private sector debt burden” as China`s debt, as shown in the report, is rapidly approaching “levels seen in the Eurozone`s crisis countries”.
27.01.2017 13:32 China`s GDP Numbers: Can We Trust The Data?
The country recently announced that its annual growth rate for 2016 rang in at 6.7%, after taking into account the fourth quarter`s 6.8% growth rate. This is in line with the nation`s target range of 6.5-7%. But after years of producing growth even in the darkest of circumstances, China has gained a reputation for possibly overestimating its growth rate. At this point, China watchers are questioning whether the data can be trusted. Although the growth rate was the lowest it has been since 1990, China`s 2016 numbers were quite strong for a nation that is losing steam and incurring increasing debt. Particularly odd was that the growth rate actually increased from 6.7% in Q3 to 6.8% in Q4 despite an apparently decelerating economy. As a result of these contradictions, China`s National Bureau of Statistics was forced to guarantee the statistics as “authentic.”
25.01.2017 19:50 Trump China Trash Talk Risks Collateral Damage to Global Economy
China may be growing at its slowest annual pace since 1990, but it`s still the powerhouse of global growth. That`s something Donald Trump`s trade hawks will need to consider if they`re truly serious about risking a conflict with China to win economic concessions. Not only would a clash derail bilateral ties, it might also deep-six a nascent global recovery. Powered by government stimulus that fired up smokestack industries and a burgeoning middle class that`s spending on everything from Starbuck`s coffee to Apple iPhones, China`s gross domestic product grew 6.7 percent in 2016. That means it likely contributed 30 percent of global growth last year, slightly above its 28 percent contribution in 2015, according to Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Singapore.
23.01.2017 14:36 IMF Warns of Possible Disruptions in Global Economy in 2017
The still-strong dollar, American and British protectionism, currency wars, and fiscal stimuli in various economies will all contribute to increased volatility in international trade and the world economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned. An increased fragmentation in international trade, the rise of economic protectionism in key world economies, accommodative tax policies, and deregulation might pose significant challenges to the global economy this year, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde said in a speech to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Some of the concerns of spillovers produced by the policies of the Donald Trump administration in the US and the post-Brexit UK might eventually come true, producing a net negative outcome for the world economy overall, and the reshaping of the global economic landscape might turn out to be painful.
22.01.2017 12:39 Russia`s economy minister forecasts 2 percent growth if no shocks
Russia`s economy could grow by 2 percent in 2017 as long as there are no external shocks such as a renewed fall in oil prices, Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The Russian economy shrank by between 0.5 and 0.6 percent last year, according to a preliminary data, due to low oil prices and Western sanctions. Yet, with oil prices recovering thanks to last month`s Russia-OPEC deal on cutting oil output, prospects for the economy look brighter this year. Oreshkin said Russia would not abandon a free-floating rouble, which was one of the moves taken by the Russian central bank to help the economy in 2014. The policy was aimed at preserving its gold and foreign exchange reserves, which had been previously been used to smooth out rouble volatility.
20.01.2017 22:25 UN Report - Global Economy Still In Recession, India To Grow At 7.7% In 2017
One of the usual United Nations reports, the World Economic Situation and Prospects one, has just appeared and it tells us that India is forecast to grow at 7.7% in the financial year 2017 - but the world economy is going to continue to grumble along at recessionary levels. The underlying analysis of the Indian economy being that matters are fundamentally correct and demonetization is going to have only short term negative effects. That point about the global economy needs a bit of explaining though. For growth will be positive and a recession is negative growth--ah, yes, but the world economy should be growing strongly and thus we tend to refer to slow growth as still being a recession.
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