The Lastest Macroeconomic News
05.09.2017 12:40 Is Russia`s Arms Industry About to Fall Off a Cliff?
Is Russia on the verge of seeing one of its last major export industries fall off? A recent SIPRI report paints a grim picture of the future of Russian arms exports, squeezed by the West on one side and (increasingly) by China on the other. The report suggests that as Chinese arms catch up in terms of technology and reliability, Russia will struggle to hold onto its position as an arms exporter. To be sure, Russia has tenaciously held on to its market share over the last decade, despite some technical stagnation and the growing sophistication of Chinese arms. But keeping its place may simply be untenable in the long run.
02.09.2017 11:30 SEB: The world economic situation is improving
Late-cycle growth forces are lifting the global economy, which will expand faster than the historical average throughout our 2017-2019 forecast period. But forecasts point to a complex balancing act between dramatic political events and classic cyclical issues such as the sustainability of growth, the resource situation and inflationary forces, according to SEB economists writing in the September 2017 issue of the quarterly Nordic Outlook report. So far this year, statistics have provided renewed support for a high Swedish GDP forecast. There are mounting risks of overheating, and Sweden`s Riksbank will hike its key interest rate twice in 2018 and three times in 2019 to 0.75 per cent. Despite dark political clouds, activity has surprised on the upside in many economies - for example in China, Japan and the euro zone as well as in the Nordic and Baltic countries - driven by ever-stronger labour markets, rising resource utilisation, increased trade and higher asset prices. Aside from greater georpolitical risks, there are also major social challenges such as economic inequality, ageing populations and sectoral job losses due to digitisation and automation. GDP growth in the 35 mostly affluent countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will reach 2.1 per cent this year and in 2018, then slow to 1.9 per cent in 2019.
29.08.2017 14:37 Roads And Fools In Russia: Not All That Glitters Is Silk Road
The collapse of the Soviet Union gave rise to a vast archipelago of unclaimed man-made objects and land in Russia and beyond. Thousands upon thousands of roads, bridges, water pipes, gas pipes, power grids, cemeteries, farmland, and more have passed from state hands to no one in the last 26 years. These assets aren`t just lying around. They`re being used. Without proprietors, inefficiencies, corruption, and extensive shadow economies pop up around them. China`s Belt and Road Initiative – packaged in part as a driver of development for Russia and Central Asia – dodges the myriad issues facing municipalities in the region as a result of the absence of legal responsibility for infrastructure in use. Building new roads and rails to transit goods does little to help the legal chaos surrounding ownerless assets, reiterating the extent to which China`s avowed virtue of non-interference in the domestic affairs` of others handicaps the utility of projects ostensibly meant to encourage development.
27.08.2017 11:26 Gold is doing better than U.S. stocks this year
Why gold is considered an investing safe haven? Wall Street`s conflicting emotions of fear and greed are duking it out right before our eyes. Greed is obviously alive and well. Confidence in the American economy has lifted the S&P 500 to an impressive 9% jump this year. But gold, which is thought of as a safe place during times of fear, is doing even better. The precious metal has soared 12% this year to nearly $1,300 an ounce, putting it on track for the best performance since 2010. So, what gives? Believe it or not, it`s not that rare for both gold and stocks to do well at the same time. Just last year, gold jumped 8.6%, nearly besting the S&P 500`s gain of 9.5%. Gold also soared nearly 30% in 2010, a year when the U.S. market rose a very healthy 13%. Both gold and the S&P 500 were up about 23% in 2009 as well. "It`s a bit surprising, but it`s not that unusual," said Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research. And in some ways it makes sense given the mixed emotions displayed lately by CNNMoney`s Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment. Fear & Greed is currently flashing "extreme fear," but just one month ago it was sitting comfortably in "extreme greed."
23.08.2017 20:12 How Russia may benefit from North Korean sanctions
UN trade sanctions against North Korea can benefit the economy of the Russian Far East as it will open opportunities for raw material exports from the region as well as seafood shipments to China. The UN Security Council on August 5 in response to the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles by Pyongyang unanimously adopted a resolution toughening sanctions against North Korea. The sanctions prohibit increasing the number of overseas workers from the North, creating new joint ventures with the country and importing coal, iron, lead and seafood from North Korea. That may create a supply shortfall in the Asia-Pacific market that Russia is ready to fill. “Coal, iron, lead and seafood, Russia hardly buys any of these from North Korea, as it has plenty of its own raw materials and exports a good number of them,”Artyom Lukin, associate professor of International Relations at the Far Eastern Federal University, said in an interview.
21.08.2017 12:48 Russia`s growing abilities
Russia`s growing ability corresponds to its military, agriculture and economic booms. Russia has been a promoter of its defence sector and even working to improve various other important sectors. It has been observed in the past that after the creation of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Russia always have wanted to create a military alliance against it and nurture it towards being offensive for NATO. During cold war era, Russia was the headlines of US newspapers. Later with the emergence of new governments in US, Russia came to seen, as an opposing power. President Barack Obama considered Russia to be a weaker nation in comparison to America. But the president elect Donald Trump has different views. He considers Russia as a counter facing country and yet powerful enough.
17.08.2017 18:51 The Path to U.S.-Russia Cooperation
Despite the array of twists and turns since the start of the Trump administration, there is a chance that U.S.-Russia relations could improve over time. My cautious optimism depends on three assumptions. The first assumption: President Trump continues to remain interested in engagement and cooperation with Russia. He aims to contain and defeat the threat of terrorism, make progress in resolving the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, and address the challenges of proliferation. The agreement on a limited cease-fire in Syria, reached by Presidents Trump and Putin during the G-20 summit, may keep alive the former`s intentions to improve relations with Russia - an aim he has expressed consistently since the campaign trail - in the face of domestic political costs.
14.08.2017 12:48 Japanese economy posts longest expansion in more than a decade
The Japanese economy has recorded its longest economic expansion in more than a decade after official data showed that it grew at 1% in the last quarter. Recording its sixth straight quarter of growth, the economy blew past market expectations with a 0.6% rise in the April-June period, according to figures from the cabinet office on Monday. The better-than-expected figure – which equates to a storming annualised figure of 4% – came on the back of robust domestic demand and capital spending, which offset a decline in exports. Private consumption grew at 0.9%, representing a boost for government policies aimed at encouraging more spending. Consumption accounts for more than a half of Japan`s GDP but has been sluggish for years.
09.08.2017 10:18 Chinese Trade Weakness Is an Unpleasant Surprise for the World Economy
The unpleasant surprise contained in the Chinese trade data released earlier on Tuesday could reverberate across the world, and not just because President Donald Trump will send another angry tweet about the rising Chinese current account surplus. The reality is that the world`s second-largest economy has far more influence on global trade now than before the financial crisis. Investors should brace for a slowdown in the world economy in the second half of the year. China recorded a trade surplus of $46.74 billion in July, its highest since January. That figure was higher than the $46.08 billion forecast in a Reuters survey and was well above the June surplus of $42.77 billion. Exports increased more slowly than predicted, by 7.2% versus expectations of a 10.9% increase, and were down from June`s 11.3% increase. Imports, however, missed even more, increasing by 11%, their slowest pace of growth since last December. Expectations were for a 16.6% rise in imports; they rose 17.2% in June.
06.08.2017 13:01 Global economy teeters on the brink of trade war
Earlier this year, both China`s President Xi Jinping and Russian leader Vladimir Putin thought they`d be able to reach a tolerable - perhaps even cordial - working relationship with US President Donald Trump. Instead, the global economy is teetering on the brink of a bitter and damaging trade war, as Washington has moved to impose tough economic sanctions on Moscow, while flagging its intention to take a much more aggressive stance with Beijing. Tensions between Washington and Moscow have spiralled after Trump reluctantly signed a bill that imposes new sanctions on Russia to punish the Kremlin for its alleged meddling in the 2016 election. Although Trump criticised the legislation as "seriously flawed", he had little option but to sign the bill after it had received overwhelming bipartisan and veto-proof support in US Congress. Even before he signed it, the Kremlin had retaliated by ordering the US to reduce its embassy staff numbers in Russia by 755 people and by seizing two US diplomatic properties. The new sanctions are mainly economic, and target the Russian energy sector.