The Lastest Macroeconomic News
08.10.2017 13:07 No miracles: labor shortage set to hit Russia`s GDP
A dearth of young people joining Russia`s workforce because of a low birth rate will shave several percent off potential economic growth in the next five to six years, Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said. In an interview at the Reuters Russian Investment summit, he said the labor shortage made it hard for technology companies, among others, to recruit staff they need -- hurting a sector the government has identified as vital to reviving economic growth. Russia`s birth rate hit a low in 1999 after living standards fell following the Soviet Union`s collapse. The impact is being felt now as people born at that time reach school-leaving age. “In countries with a normal demographic pyramid, a new generation comes in with modern skills and takes up jobs in a modern economy and modern industries, and with their arrival the labor market changes in favor of new sectors,” he said. In Russia`s case, Oreshkin said, this was not happening. “This is a very serious thing. The process is going to continue for five to six years,” he said.
06.10.2017 14:57 World Bank ups forecast for China`s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018
The World Bank on Wednesday raised China`s growth forecast for 2017 and 2018, citing an improved external environment and strong domestic demand. The bank now expects China`s economy to expand by 6.7 percent in 2017, up from an April projection of 6.5 percent and, for 2018, 6.4 percent instead of 6.3 percent. "(China`s) GDP growth is revised upward in 2017 in light of better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year," the World Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update. China`s economy grew at 6.9 percent in the first half. The updated projection is part of a broader forecast for the region to grow 6.4 percent in 2017 and 6.2 percent in 2018, compared with the previously forecast 6.2 percent in 2017 and 6.1 percent in 2018. As more efforts are made to rebalance away from investment and external demand toward domestic consumption, China`s growth is projected to moderate in 2018-2019 but remain higher than many economies in the region, it said.
04.10.2017 11:56 World Bank raises 2017, 2018 East Asia growth forecasts, sees geopolitical risks
The World Bank raised its economic growth forecasts for developing East Asia and Pacific for this year and 2018, but added the generally positive outlook was clouded by risks such as rising trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions. The Washington-based lender now expects the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which includes China, to grow 6.4 percent in 2017 and 6.2 percent in 2018. Its previous forecast in April was for 6.2 percent growth in 2017 and 6.1 percent growth in 2018. "The economic outlook for the region remains positive and will benefit from an improved external environment as well as strong domestic demand," the World Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report on Wednesday.
01.10.2017 17:51 Morgan Stanley: India likely to be third largest economy in 10 years
India is expected to be a USD 6 trillion economy — the third largest in the world — in the next 10 years, majorly helped by digitisation, says a report. According to global brokerage Morgan Stanley, India`s digitisation drive would provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth in the coming decade. “We estimate that digitisation will provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth and forecast that India will grow to USD 6 trillion economy and achieve upper-middle income status by by 2026-27,” Morgan Stanley head India research and India equity strategist Ridham Desai told reporters here. “We expect India`s real and nominal GDP growth to compound annually by 7.1 per cent and 11.2 per cent respectively over the coming decade,” he added.
29.09.2017 13:26 Global economy at risk a decade on from financial crisis, says WEF
The 10th anniversary of the worst downturn since the Great Depression finds the global economy at risk of a fresh crisis and ill-prepared for the disruption likely from the robot age, the World Economic Forum has warned. The body that organises the annual gathering of the global elite in Davos each January used its annual league table of competitiveness to stress that the failure to push through growth and productivity-friendly policies since the crash of 2007-08 had jeopardised chances of a sustained recovery. WEF sources said recent Bank of England concerns about a potential consumer debt crisis were timely since there was evidence that the global banking system was less sound than before the financial crisis and that conditions were deteriorating in some parts of the world. Last month, the International Monetary Fund warned of a “dangerous” growth in China`s debt. The WEF said there was also a need to combine labour market flexibility with enhanced rights for workers, with countries that had managed to do so enjoying higher employment and lower levels of inequality. Zero-hours contracts were a “sticking plaster” rather than a long-term solution, it added.
26.09.2017 13:23 OECD: the global economy will grow by 3.5% this year and 3.7% in 2018
The world economy has picked up momentum, as expanding investment, employment and trade support synchronized growth across most countries, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development`s latest Interim Economic Outlook. The OECD projects that the global economy will grow by 3.5% this year and 3.7% in 2018, with industrial production and trade picking up and further acceleration in the rebound of technology spending. The projections reflect modest improvements in the global economy since the previous Economic Outlook in June 2017. According to the outlook, the recovery of business investment and trade remain too low to sustain healthy productivity growth, while wage growth has been disappointing on average, and not equitable across workers. Emerging markets are key for overall global growth, and strong future growth depends on deeper reforms.
25.09.2017 00:28 Economists slash U.S. GDP growth estimates in the third quarter
Economists took a heavy red pen to their forecasts for third quarter growth after weak retail sales and industrial production, with some shaving nearly a percentage point off their estimates. The Atlanta Fed joined with forecasters from Bank of America and Barclays in reducing their GDP estimates by 0.8 percentage points. The CNBC Rapid Update average of tracking forecasts now stands at 2.4 percent, down 0.6 points. Goldman Sachs, which lowered its forecast by 0.4 percentage points, is the lowest on the Street, looking for just 1.6 percent growth in the quarter. Stephen Stanley from Amherst Pierpoint continues to maintain his optimism, coming in at the high end with a 2.8 percent forecast.
22.09.2017 12:45 The global economy is starting to create lose-lose situations
Next month, when finance ministers and central bank governors from more than 180 countries gather in Washington, D.C., for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, they will confront a global economic order under increasing strain. Having failed to deliver the inclusive economic prosperity of which it is capable, that order is subject to growing doubts - and mounting challenges. Barring a course correction, the risks that today`s order will yield to a world economic non-order will only intensify. The current international economic order, spearheaded by the United States and its allies in the wake of World War II, is underpinned by multilateral institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank. These institutions were designed to crystallize member countries` obligations, and they embodied a set of best economic-policy practices that evolved into what became known as the “Washington Consensus.” That consensus was rooted in an economic paradigm that aimed to promote win-win interactions among countries, emphasizing trade liberalization, relatively unrestricted cross-border capital flows, free-market pricing, and domestic deregulation. All of this stood in stark contrast to what developed behind the Iron Curtain and in China over the first half of the postwar period.
19.09.2017 18:31 Inventions That Transformed The Global Economy
Last week, Apple Inc. launched its newest iPhones. And while the historical significance of these new Apple products may be debatable, the first iPhone, which came out a decade ago, is undoubtedly one of the most important tech innovations of all time. The first-generation iPhone is one of the seminal technologies featured in journalist and economist Tim Harford`s book "Fifty Inventions That Shaped the Modern Economy." "I`m always looking for interesting ways to describe the economy that determines how we live, how we work, what we get to do, the choices we have. It`s all around us," said Harford. Here are some of the inventions featured in his book: The iPhone, The Gramophone, Google Search, Video Games, The Billy Bookcase.
17.09.2017 13:50 Russia cuts interest rate for 4th time this year
Russia`s central bank has cut its key interest rate to 8.5 percent, the fourth reductions this year as inflation hits a record low. The bank said it took the decision to slice 50 points off the rate after "inflation expectations resumed their decline". In a statement, the Russian bank said it would "continue to conduct a moderately tight monetary policy" in order to maintain inflation close to 4%. But it also said that "during the next two quarters, the Bank of Russia deems it possible to cut the key rate further." The central bank is still struggling to breathe life into the Russian economy as it slowly emerges from the longest recession of President Vladimir Putin`s rule on the bank of low oil prices and Western sanctions over Ukraine. The bank dramatically increased its interest rates following the crash of the ruble in late 2014 and has been gradually chipping away at the key rate since then in bid to bolster the economy. After three consecutive cuts, the bank chose to not to lower them further during its last meeting in July due to a worries over inflation. But those fears proved unfounded and inflation in August fell to a post-Soviet low of 3.3 percent.
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