The Lastest Macroeconomic News
11.03.2018 16:40 Why the global economy is due for a downswing
After so many years of anaemic growth and low wages, it might seem unreasonable to suggest that the next economic downswing could be lurking just around the corner. It is true that unemployment rates have dropped dramatically and wages have picked up a touch in a number of countries, and both are useful “end-of-cycle” indicators. On the other hand, interest rates are mostly low, President Donald Trump is offering fiscal stimulus in the US, the eurozone is more dynamic than it has been in many years and earlier fears regarding a Chinese economic meltdown now look absurd. Why, then, worry about the next downswing? Simply put, alarm bells should start ringing precisely when so many countries are performing so well simultaneously.
05.03.2018 19:44 China sets GDP growth target of 6.5 percent for 2018
China on Monday set its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target at around 6.5 percent for the year 2018-19, according to a government work report. The figures are, however, slightly lower than previous figures of 6.7 percent in 2016 and 6.8 percent in 2017 respectively. China will still remain as one of the world`s fastest-growing economies in the world. "Given China`s economic fundamentals and capacity for job creation, GDP growth of around 6.5 percent will enable China to achieve relatively full employment", Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at the first session of the 13th National People`s Congress (NPC), China`s top legislature which is underway. According to the report, the country aims to create over 11 million new urban jobs in this year and to maintain an inflation level at around 3 percent. The surveyed urban unemployment rate is forecasted at 5.5 percent and the registered urban jobless rate is pegged at 4.5 percent, Xinhua reported.
01.03.2018 22:16 India replaces China as world`s fastest growing economy
The Indian economy grew at 7.2 percent in October-December 2017, and will likely expand 6.6 percent in 2017-18, latest official estimates said on Wednesday, amid strong revival signs in consumption spending and investment activity. The economy is poised to move into a faster lane, swiftly recovering from the disorderly effects of demonetisation and the goods and services tax (GST). The rebound in India`s “real” inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 6.5 percent in the previous quarter (July-September) will likely help regain its lost status as the world`s fastest growing major economy outpacing China, which grew 6.8 percent in October-December 2017. Latest estimates broadly mirror the trends seen in high frequency indicators like corporate income and industrial output data. It is in line with the government`s earlier estimates. In January, the government had projected that India`s GDP would grow at 6.5 percent in 2017-18. Implicit calculations suggest that GDP in the October-March period would grow at 7 percent.
25.02.2018 23:08 Britain just became the slowest-growing major economy in the world
The UK`s economy grew less than previously thought in the fourth quarter of 2017, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Thursday shows. Britain`s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.4% in the quarter, according to the ONS`s second estimate of growth. The first estimate, released in January, showed growth running at 0.5%, ahead of expectations. On an annual basis, GDP grew by 1.4% on a year-to-year basis in the quarter, once again below the previous estimate, which was 1.5%. Services, the dominant sector of the UK economy, accounted for the majority of growth over the data period. Services account for roughly 80% of UK output.
22.02.2018 19:49 Cybercrime drains $600 billion a year from the global economy, says report
Global businesses are losing the equivalent of nearly one percent of global GDP (Gross Domestic Product) a year to cybercrime, and it`s impacting job creation, innovation and economic growth. So says a report from cybersecurity firm McAfee and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which estimates that cybercrime costs the global economy $600 billion a year -- up from a 2014 study which put the figure at $445bn. The cost of cybercrime amounts to 0.8 percent of global GDP, with the $155bn jump since 2014 attributed to the speed with which new technology is adopted by cybercriminals and an increase in the number of internet users in parts of the world with weak cybersecurity.
18.02.2018 20:43 Bitcoin price predictions 2018: Bitcoin will reach $25,000 in 2018 and $125,000 by 2022
Bitcoin predictions 2018. With the Bitcoin rising above $ 10,000, most of the analysts are pretty bullish on the cryptocurrency. Also, many analysts are predicting much higher prices for Bitcoin by the end of 2018. According to a Bitcoin investor, Tom Lee Bitcoin is slated to reach almost $ 25,000 by the end of 2018. He further thinks that it will rise to $ 125000 by 2022. These numbers are quite bullish. According to a report by Fundstrat Global Advisors, the recovery in Bitcoin will be pretty fierce as well. Also, most of the experts believe that by the month of July, there will be a complete recovery. After that, Bitcoin will again be able to head to newer highs as well. This is the reason why many investors think that it will be able to hit new highs consistently during the 2nd half of the year.
14.02.2018 14:07 Japan GDP growth slows in Q4
Japan`s economic expansion slowed in the three months through December, according to an initial estimate, nonetheless ringing up an eighth consecutive quarter of growth and the longest streak since a 12-quarter stretch that ended in 1989. A preliminary reading on gross domestic product from Japan`s Cabinet Office reported annualised growth of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, falling from a pace of 2.5 per cent in the third quarter and coming in below a median forecast of 0.9 per cent from economists polled by Reuters. Quarter-on-quarter GDP rose just 0.1 per cent per cent, slowing from a 0.3 per cent rise in the quarter ended September. Domestic demand grew 0.1 per cent compared to the previous quarter as private consumption registered a 0.5 per cent rise, exiting contraction after a fall of 0.6 per cent in the third quarter. Capital expenditure growth of 0.7 per cent quarter on quarter came up short against expectations of a 1.1 per cent rise. External demand was little help, remaining unchanged from a quarter prior but in line with expectations as exports registered a 2.4 per cent sequential rise and imports climbed 2.9 per cent.
11.02.2018 19:32 AI to contribute $320b to Middle East GDP by 2030
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will contribute $320 billion (Dh1.2 trillion) to the Middle East economy by 2030, equivalent to 11 per cent of GDP, PwC Middle East`s report shows. The most significant relative gains in the region are expected in the UAE where AI is expected to contribute almost 14% of GDP in 2030. This is followed by Saudi Arabia (12.4 per cent), the other GCC countries (8.2 per cent) and then Egypt (7.7 per cent). The report outlines that there are greater, untapped opportunities that could increase the impact of AI on the region`s economy, moreover the impact could be even larger if governments continue to push the boundaries of innovation and implementation of AI across businesses and sectors between now and 2030. Globally, PwC analysis has shown that AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy in 2030, more than the current output of China and India combined. Of this, labour productivity improvements are expected to account for half of all economic gains to 2030, while increased consumer demand resulting from AI-enabled product enhancements will account for the rest.
07.02.2018 15:23 Russia`s Economic Stagnation Is Here to Stay
In the early days of 2018, the Russian economy is stagnating. This is no statistical blip: the average annual growth rate in 2008-2017 for Russia was just 1.2%. Last year, Russia`s GDP-growth rate was 1.5%, compared to 2.5% in the Eurozone and 2.3% in the United States – both developed economies that should be growing 2-3 percentage points slower than a developing economy like Russia. And, as the Russian economic ministry, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund all recognize, this poor performance seems likely to continue. Boosting Russia`s growth will be possible only with deep structural reforms, because the economy is stagnating at full capacity. With unemployment at around 5.5% for the fifth consecutive year – a rate that almost any developed country would envy – there are few unemployed to be put to work. Likewise, capacity utilization in manufacturing is roughly at the same level as in the previous two peaks (2007-2008 and 2013), meaning that there is almost no spare capacity to be put to use.
05.02.2018 21:57 NBU estimates Ukraine`s GDP growth at 2.1 pct in 2017
Ukraine`s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in 2017 on the back of increased consumption of goods and services in the local market, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said Friday in an estimate. "Domestic demand continued to be the main driver of the real GDP growth," the NBU said in a report, noting that the demand was spurred by increased wages. Other major factors contributing to the GDP increase were growing investment, improved business expectations and solid corporate earnings. The final figures for last year`s economic performance will be delivered later by the State Statistics Service. Ukraine`s economy grew 2.3 percent in 2016 after two years of contraction.