The Lastest Macroeconomic News
04.12.2017 15:12 U.S. helps drive global economy higher
Believe it or not, the U.S. is in its ninth consecutive year of economic expansion. In a healthy economy, gross domestic product, or GDP, growth rate is around 3-3.5 percent. GDP is the total dollar value of goods and services produced by a country and is the key indicator of its economic health. But therein lies the rub. Though the current expansion is the third longest since World War II, it is also the slowest, with an annual rate of growth averaging a paltry 2.1 percent. In 2016, economic growth was 1.5 percent. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate was even lower at just 1.2 percent. But in the past eight months, the U.S. economy has finally gained traction. Led by improvements in consumer spending and a surge in business investment of factories, machinery and equipment, economic growth has averaged 3.05 percent. The national unemployment rate is at 4.1 percent, a 17-year low. The Consumer Confidence Index, a key measure of optimism on the state of the U.S. economy, was just reported at 129.5, reflecting a recent level of consumer optimism not seen since November 2000. The index has a benchmark of 100. Anything above 100 indicates optimism on jobs and income by consumers, who ultimately will spend money and stimulate economic growth.
30.11.2017 22:54 U.S. third-quarter economic growth fastest in three years
The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, notching its quickest pace in three years, buoyed by robust business spending on equipment and an accumulation of inventories. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.3 percent annual rate last quarter also boosted by a rebound in government investment, the Commerce Department said in its second GDP estimate on Wednesday. That was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2014 and a pickup from the second quarter`s 3.1 percent rate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 3.0 percent pace in the July-September period. It was the first time since 2014 that the economy experienced growth of 3 percent or more for two straight quarters. The growth pace, however, likely exaggerates the health of the economy as inventories, goods yet to be sold, accounted for nearly a quarter of GDP growth. Excluding inventory investment, the economy grew at a 2.5 percent rate. When measured from the income side, output also expanded at a 2.5 percent rate.
29.11.2017 12:12 World economy growing faster than in years, but not for long
The world economy is growing faster than it has in seven years and more and more people are working - but the high growth isn`t expected to last long, and wages remain stubbornly stagnant. That`s according to forecasts Tuesday from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which urged governments to do more to ensure longer-term growth and better living standards across the board. The group, which recommends policies for leading economies, predicts sustained growth in the U.S. this year and next and a sharper-than-expected increase in the countries that use the euro currency. For 2019, however, the OECD forecasts “a tempering of growth rather than continued strengthening.” Chief Economist Catherine Mann urged faster re-training of workers amid drastic technological changes, extending retirement ages, investing in renewable energy and simplified tax rules to reduce risks of a new downturn.
27.11.2017 15:34 India on track to become world`s third largest economy
India will emerge as the world`s third largest economy, surpassing Japan by 2028, on the back of rising savings rates, financial maturity and increasing incomes, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said. "We believe India stands out among the large emerging economies as having the best prospects for strong growth over the next decade. In 2028, we estimate it will surpass Japan in nominal GDP terms to emerge as the world`s third-largest economy," said Indranil Sen Gupta, economist at BofA Merrill Lynch. Although India`s GDP size was just $2.3 trillion, a fraction of China`s $11.4 trillion and $18.6 trillion of the US, in 2016, the country could already outpace Japan as the third largest in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms at $8.7 trillion. Global management consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers has forecast that India would outpace the US to emerge as the second largest economy in PPP terms by 2040 to $30 trillion from $8.7 trillion in 2016, while the US will grow from $18.6 trillion to $28.3 trillion.
24.11.2017 12:11 In 2018, the MFI market in Russia will be reduced by 6 times
According to the newspaper Daily, in 2018 there will be a large-scale reduction in the number of MFIs in Russia. Such a trend, according to analysts, can be observed against the background of the destruction of the entire banking system by the actions of the Central Bank. Recall that in 2016, the Central Bank excluded more than a third of participants from the register of microfinance organizations. And this trend has been preserved this year. For example, the day before yesterday eight more MFIs were excluded from the register, and the oldest of them worked on the market for more than 6 years.
22.11.2017 23:19 Britain crashes out of world`s top 5 economies
Britain has officially abandoned its claim to be the world`s fifth largest economy. Treasury chief Philip Hammond acknowledged the slide on Wednesday, noting the new ranking in a series of statements meant to highlight the economy`s strength. "Britain is the world`s sixth largest economy," Hammond said in his closely-watched budget speech. While there are several ways to measure the size of an economy, the U.K. Treasury pointed to GDP forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund in October to back up his statement. The numbers show that France will narrowly squeak ahead of Britain in the group`s 2017 ranking of global economies, with its advantage predicted to widen considerably in 2018. This year will be the first time since 2013 that France has topped the U.K. in the ranking, according to the IMF.
20.11.2017 20:32 Russian economy expands 1.6 pct in January-September
Russia`s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.6 percent year-on-year in the first nine months, the country`s official statistic service Rosstat said Monday, citing preliminary data. Russia`s GDP declined 0.4 percent year-on-year in the same period compared a 1.8 percent rise in the third quarter this year, Rosstat said in a release. Russia`s central bank currently puts the country`s GDP growth at 1.7-2.2 percent for the year of 2017, while the Russian Economy Ministry expects it to be 2.1 percent.
17.11.2017 17:08 Tuberculosis to cost world economy $1 trillion by 2030
Tuberculosis will cost the world economy close to $1 trillion in lost economic output by 2030, unless countries step up efforts to fight the disease, according to a report launched today by the Global TB Caucus, a group of over 2,300 parliamentarians from 130 countries. The disease cost the world more than $600 billion from 2000 to 2015. The study launches ahead of the first World Health Organization Global Ministerial Conference on Ending TB, which will take place in Moscow on November 16-17. The event will convene 1,000 participants from 100 states, including 74 ministers of health from the top 40 highest TB and multi-drug-resistant TB burden countries. Leaders from U.N. agencies, civil society, the private sector, and donors will also be in attendance. The conference will result in a ministerial declaration with commitments to accelerate efforts in ending TB and will inform the first ever U.N. high-level meeting on TB in 2018.
15.11.2017 16:34 Russia Feels GDP Growth Limits Again
Russia`s economy grew by 1.8 per cent in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, a marked slowdown from the 2.5 per cent the Federal Statistics Service had reported for the second quarter. The agency`s first estimate for the September quarter does not include any detail, but monthly data published earlier indicates that the deceleration was due to weaker growth in industrial production. In a Bloomberg survey, economists forecast a reading of 2 per cent. In late 2016, the country emerged from a two-year recession which had been sparked by the drop in global oil prices and western sanctions. The Russian government expects gross domestic product for the full year of 2017 to increase by at least 2 per cent. Industrial production had been the first indicator to recover, but it slowed to 1.2 per cent year-on-year in the three months to September 30 from 3.8 per cent in the preceding quarter. Most other indicators, however, point to a broader recovery ahead. Retail sales, which only stopped shrinking in the second quarter, picked up pace in the September quarter, and construction was flat for the first time after more than a year of contraction.
13.11.2017 14:54 World economic outlook for 2017 and beyond
The year 2017 can be chalked down as a prosperous one for the world economy. Wherever we live, as we celebrate the end of a good year, we also welcome the incoming year, which, by all indications, we hope, will be a better one. The most common measures of economic health viz. output, inflation, employment, and cost of borrowing, all portend that 2018 might be one of the best in this decade, and perhaps, even since the dawn of this century. The change in mood among the forecasters is evident if we compare the state of uncertainty at the beginning of this year with the prevailing optimism. The election of President Donald Trump, with his promises of reform and radical change in the global commitments of the US, including the Paris Climate Accord, NAFTA, and TPP, was initially viewed with disquiet. This, along with the expected turmoil as EU and UK began their much anticipated negotiations over the Brexit pullout, led to a period of “wait and see” in financial and policy circles. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found itself scratching its head as evident from its July 2017 pronouncement which lowered its forecast for US growth to 2.1 percent for 2017 and 2018 from earlier projections of 2.3 percent and 2.5 percent. But as soon as it was clear that Wall Street was happy with the moves made by the new administration, there was a surge in business investment, fuelled by executive orders from the Trump administration, robust consumer spending, low interest rates, and exports boosted by a weaker dollar. The US economy grew at three percent last quarter (July-September) and business spending on new equipment went up by an annual rate of 8.65.
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