The Lastest Macroeconomic News
17.07.2018 18:25 IMF: Trump`s trade war could inflict $500bn of damage on world economy
Donald Trump`s trade war could wipe up to half a trillion dollars off the global economy and financial markets are too complacent about the risk, the International Monetary Fund has warned. Unveiling the Fund`s latest outlook on Monday, the IMF`s economic counsellor, Maury Obstfeld, said the global economy was set to grow at 3.9 per cent this year and next, which would be its highest growth rate since 2011. But Mr Obstfeld also warned that the US President`s tariff hostilities were “the greatest near-term threat to global growth”. He said that IMF modelling shows global output could be about 0.5 per cent below current projections by 2020 if threatened tariffs materialised and business investment fell as a result. With the IMF projecting global GDP to be around $100 trillion (£75 trillion) in 2020, that implies a cost of $500bn.
10.07.2018 19:26 UK GDP growth recovers in May boost to Bank of England hawks
The British economy did not accelerate in the three months to May compared to the first quarter, according to monthly data released for the first time by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – although a bounceback during the month of May itself will relieve Bank of England hawks hoping to raise interest rates. UK GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in the three months to May, the same pace as the first three months of the year. However, the new monthly GDP estimate – which the government's statisticians caution is a more volatile measure – showed growth of 0.3 per cent during the month, up from 0.2 per cent in April, with the ONS crediting the royal wedding and warmer weather for a boost to retailers in particular.
04.07.2018 21:59 Global economy under threat as tariff war bites
Global economic growth is under threat as the world`s economic super powers trade tit-for-tat trade sanctions, according to the World Trade Organization. In its most sober assessment of the growing tariff war between the US, European Union and China, the WTO said the global system of agreed trade rules was at "potentially large risk". It said world economic growth was "in jeopardy" and pleaded for a "de-escalation". The threat of a tariff war was sparked after US President Donald Trump ordered tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the EU and China.
26.06.2018 20:51 Stronger US GDP in Q2
The US gross domestic product (GDP) is anticipated to grow at a much stronger pace in the second quarter, underpinned by stronger retails sales, according to AmBank Group. Its chief economist Anthony Dass said last week he expect the second quarter GDP to be much stronger, supported by strong consumer spending which should grow around 3.7% due to tax cuts, and net exports that would help lift GDP growth by about 1% in the quarter. “Hence, we have revised the second quarter growth GDP growth to 3.8% from previously 2.8%, higher than the first quarter growth of 2.2%. If the economy grows at our projected growth rate, it would be the best since the third quarter of 2014”, he noted.
21.06.2018 18:28 Central bank: World Cup to add 0.1-0.2 percentage points to Russia`s GDP
The holding of the 2018 FIFA World Cup will increase Russia`s Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in 2018 by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, the country`s central bank said. "Holding such a large-scale international event will additionally support the growth (in production) in the second quarter, and by the end of the year, its contribution to GDP growth may reach 0.1-0.2 percentage points," governor of the Russian central bank Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference. Meanwhile, the head of the bank said the World Cup will have little influence on Russia`s inflation, with only short-time effects in certain cities and on certain goods and services, primarily consumed by tourists. She also expressed hope that the games will only have a positive impact on "expectations and sentiments" of both Russian citizens and foreign guests. According to its press service, the central bank forecasts Russia`s annual GDP growth in 2018 to be 1.5 to 2 percent, and annual inflation 3.5 to 4 percent at the end of the year. The 2018 World Cup kicked off here on Thursday and is scheduled to be held till July 15, with a total of 64 matches to be played at 12 stadiums in 11 Russian cities.
15.06.2018 16:39 Global GDP Growth Forecast at 3.2 Percent
The global economy is projected to carry forward its current momentum to generate a 3.2% growth rate in 2018, Conference Board, the New York-based economic research association, said in its latest Global Economic Outlook 2018. The forecast is slightly down from the association`s February prediction of 3.3%. A modest dip in global growth momentum is primarily driven by a maturing business cycle in the eurozone and a slightly weaker growth outlook in emerging markets, driven by US dollar appreciation and rising interest rates, as well as more challenging economic conditions in Brazil, Russia and Turkey, the report said. Momentum in mature economies improved last year and will continue growing at about the same pace through 2018. Mature economies are expected to grow by 2.4% in 2018, unchanged from 2017, the report said.
06.06.2018 16:02 Man-made risks forecast to cost world`s cities $320bn each year on average
Man-made risks like cyber-crime, interstate conflicts or market crashes are a bigger threat to economic output than natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and volcanoes, putting an estimated $320.1 billion of global GDP at risk on average each year, according to Lloyd`s, the world`s specialist insurance and reinsurance market. The Lloyd`s City Risk Index, built in collaboration with Cambridge University, is a unique study measuring the impact of 22 threats on 279 cities` projected economic output. The index reveals that 279 cities across the world – the key engines of global economic growth with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $35.4 trillion – risk losing on average $546.5bn in economic output annually from all 22 threats. This comprises $320.1bn to man-made risks and $226.4bn to natural catastrophes.
01.06.2018 14:51 India`s economic growth jumps to 7.7% in the quarter ended March
The world`s fastest growing major economy is getting even hotter. India`s gross domestic product grew by 7.7% in the quarter ended March, the government said Thursday. That`s a big jump from the revised 7% growth rate recorded the previous quarter. It also means India continues to grow faster than China, which posted growth of 6.8% in the first quarter of 2018. "Rapid growth in agriculture (4.5%), manufacturing (9.1%) and construction sectors (11.5%) contributed to the overall growth," the Indian government said. Growth for the 2017-2018 financial year as a whole came in at 6.7%, according to provisional figures.
24.05.2018 19:43 World Bank lowers economic forecast of Russia
The World Bank has lowered forecast for economic growth in Russia in 2018 to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent earlier. The organization warned that Russia might face more years of modest economic prospects but said these forecasts could change because of change in the price of oil. Crude oil prices have been on a rising note recently, oil prices went up to their highest prices since 2014, due to several measures were taken by OPEC and other oil producing countries to curb supplies. Referring to the Russian economy, the World Bank said, “Relatively high oil prices, continued momentum in the global economic growth and macro stabilization would support growth.” Russia recently, launched Akademik Lomonosov, the world`s first floating nuclear power plant, at a ceremony in the port of the far northern city of Murmansk where it will be loaded with nuclear fuel before heading to eastern Siberia.
20.05.2018 14:46 Russia GDP Growth Looks Weak, But Not Terrible
The weaker than expected GDP numbers keep the central bank easing story in 2018 intact, but the interest rate path will be data-dependent. The flash GDP growth estimate of 1.3% in 1Q18 undershot consensus expectations of 1.5% and our optimistic forecast of 1.8%. However, it was somewhat better than the preliminary Ministry of Economy (MinEco) estimate of 1.1% and was also a modest improvement from 0.9% observed in 4Q17. The key components breakdown is unavailable right now, but we know that negative performance in construction, wholesale and some sub-sectors in the industry resulted in weaker 1Q reading in March than was originally expected in early 2018. The Ministry has recently said it would cut its 2018 growth forecast from the current 2.1% despite a higher oil price assumption.