The Lastest Macroeconomic News

29.11.2007 22:12 US economic growth revised up to 4.9 percent in the third quarter

The US economy surged at a 4.9 percent pace in the third quarter ahead of the impact of credit and housing ills, the government said Thursday in a revised estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). The expansion was the fastest pace in four years and was fueled by strong export growth helped by a weak dollar, and by increased business inventories. The figure was in line with most analyst forecasts. The Commerce Department estimate was revised up from an initial figure a month ago of a 3.9 percent annualized pace. Still, economists have said the significance of the July-September growth figure is minimized because activity is slowing in the face of tight credit and a depressed housing market. Exports increased 18.9 percent in the new estimate, up from 16.2 percent, including a 25.8 percent increase in goods exports as the dollar`s decline made US products more attractive to businesses and consumers abroad. Import growth was revised lower than the earlier estimate, rising 4.3 percent instead of the 5.2 percent. But consumer spending, which represents the lion`s share of economic activity, was revised down to show a 2.7 percent rise from a first estimate of a 3.0 percent gain. An increase in inventory building by businesses also contributed to faster growth. The revised number was 27.1 billion dollars, nearly three times the 9.9 billion first estimated.

27.11.2007 21:59 Russia`s GDP grew 7.4% in Jan-Oct 2007, industrial production - 6,5%

Russia`s GDP grew 7.4 percent in January-October 2007 compared to 6.6 percent in the first ten months in 2006, Russian Economy Ministry reported. The country`s GDP went up 7.5 percent in October 2007 against 6.7 percent in the third quarter 2007. Russia`s industrial output grew 6.5% year-on-year in the first ten month of 2007. Industrial production in October increased 6.1% year-on-year. The manufacturing sector was the biggest contributor to industrial production growth during the first ten months of 2007, rising 9.8 percent from January-October 2006. Inflation in Russia in October 2007 was 1.6%, in January-October - 9.3%. Russian Economy Ministry forecasts GDP will grow 7.3-7.4% this year, inflation will be 11.0-11.5%.

24.11.2007 12:55 Japan`s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter

Japan`s economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.6 percent in the July-September quarter on strong exports, the government said Tuesday, but the outlook for exports was clouded by sluggish economic signs in the United States. Gross domestic product grew a price-adjusted 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Cabinet Office. On an annualized basis, the July-September GDP increased by 2.6 percent. The figures beat the annualized 1.8 percent gain forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. In the April-June quarter, Japan`s GDP declined 1.2 percent on an annual basis, marking the first contraction in growth for three quarters. Although the latest results suggest Japan`s economy is still recovering, there are also worrying signs. Exports, which accounted for much of the third-quarter growth, are at a risk of decelerating because of a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Another sign is that housing investment, though its contribution is small, is declining. Private residential investment plunged 7.8 percent - the largest drop since a 11.1 percent tumble in the April-June 1997 quarter - likely hurt by tighter building regulations that came into force in late June.

21.11.2007 20:15 Russia`s industrial output up 6.5% y-on-y in Jan-Oct 2007

Russia`s industrial output grew 6.5% year-on-year in the first ten month of 2007, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Industrial growth in October increased 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations. The official forecast for industrial growth in 2007 is 5.2%, but the economics ministry earlier said it could be raised. The country posted the highest industrial growth of 10.9% in June. The manufacturing sector was the biggest contributor to industrial production growth during the first ten months of 2007, rising 9.8 percent from January-October 2006. Output increased 2.1 percent in the primary sector, while declining 1.9 percent in electricity, gas and water distribution. In January-October 2007, Russia increased coal production by 1.1% and oil production - by 2.4% year-on-year, but decreased gas output by 1.3% during the same period, the statistics service said.

16.11.2007 21:02 US October industrial production down 0.5 pct, capacity utilization 81.7 pct

The Federal Reserve reported that US industrial production fell 0.5 pct in October due to across-the-board declines in production of autos, home electronics, appliances, furniture and other goods. The report also put October`s plant capacity utilization rate at 81.7 pct, down from 82.2 the prior month. Analysts were expecting a 0.1 pct rise in production and an operating rate of about 82.0 pct. September production was revised upwardly to a 0.2 pct rise from 0.1 pct, and September`s capacity use was adjusted up by a tenth of a percentage point to 82.2 pct. Utility output fell the hardest of all major industry groups, down 1.6 pct after falling just 0.1 pct in September and rising 5.2 pct in August. Manufacturing fell 0.4 pct, led by a 0.8 pct decline in machinery, 1.2 pct decline in electrical equipment and appliances, and 1.0 pct decline in autos and auto parts. Mining output fell 0.6 pct after rising 0.6 pct in September.

15.11.2007 22:06 Inflation in Russia in 2007 could exceed 11,0%, GDP growth will reach 7,4%

Inflation in Russia in 2007 could exceed 11%, the director of the Economic Development and Trade Ministry`s macroeconomic forecasting department said. Andrei Klepach told journalists that originally, inflation in 2007 was expected to reach 8% attributing the rise to structural factors like price hikes in staple foods, as well as monetary factors. Klepach said inflation in 2008 could exceed the 6-7% forecast. "We are currently specifying the inflation forecast for 2008. It looks like we won`t be within 6-7%," he said. The ministry official also said the Russian government could restrict grain exports in 2008 to curb inflation. "We may impose a direct ban or introduce an export duty," Klepach said adding that measures will depend on the market situation. He said grain exports were 3 million metric tons in October and if this trend continues, the government will consider additional measures to restrict exports. According to the economics ministry forecast, GDP growth in 2007 will reach 7.3-7.4%.

13.11.2007 22:18 Industrial production down by 0.7% in Eurozone, down by 0.5% in EU27

In September 2007 compared with August 2007, seasonally adjusted industrial production1 fell by 0.7% in the euro area (EA13) and by 0.5% in the EU27. In August production grew by 1.2% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU27. In September 2007 compared with September 2006, industrial production rose by 3.5% in the euro area and by 3.1% in the EU27. These estimates are released by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. In September 2007 compared with August 2007, production of energy increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU27. Capital goods fell by 1.0% and 0.6% respectively. Non-durable consumer goods decreased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU27. Intermediate goods declined by 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. Durable consumer goods dropped by 3.4% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU27. In September 2007 compared with September 2006, capital goods increased by 5.5% in the euro area and by 5.7% in the EU27. Production of energy grew by 3.6% and 1.9% respectively. Intermediate goods rose by 2.8% in the euro area and by 2.5% in the EU27. Non-durable consumer goods gained 2.3% and 1.5% respectively. Durable consumer goods grew by 1.3% in the euro area and by 3.1% in the EU27.

10.11.2007 14:41 EBRD expects Russia`s GDP to grow 7.2% this year and 6.5% next year

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Russia`s GDP to grow 7.2% this year and inflation to be 8.5%, the bank`s transition report said. "Growth in Russia is expected to rise to 7.2 per cent in 2007 (from 6.7 per cent in 2006) and then drop back down to 6.5 per cent in 2008," the report said. Russia`s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, also a deputy premier, said on Wednesday that GDP growth would be 7.3%. The bank`s expectations on inflation in Russia look far more optimistic than forecasts by the Russian authorities, something EBRD put down to the timing of the report. Earlier this month, the Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry said annual inflation would exceed the target of 8% and hit 11% instead. Kudrin said it would top 10%. Erik Berglof, chief economist at the EBRD, said the Russian government had only recently revised its inflation forecast after a sharp rise in food prices. He also said the situation in the Russian banking sector had equally affected the Russian forecasts.

06.11.2007 21:48 Economic growth in the US unexpectedly accelerated in the third quarter

Economic growth in the U.S. unexpectedly accelerated in the third quarter, as increases in exports, consumer spending and business investment made up for another plunge in home construction. Gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.9 percent, the most in more than a year, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The quarter included the period when some mortgage and commercial-borrowing costs jumped to six-year highs, prompting some economists to cut growth forecasts and some to warn of recession. Meanwhile, US economy will probably expand at a 1.8 percent pace in the current quarter, according to a forecast of economists surveyed in October. "I don`t expect we`re going to see GDP at all like this in the fourth quarter, but coming from where we`ve been in mid-2007, it won`t be bad," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland.

02.11.2007 21:55 Eurozone October manufacturing PMI was 51.5 versus 53.2 in September

The euro zone manufacturing sector purchasing managers` index was left unrevised at 51.5, its lowest since Aug 2005, sources said of a key survey. The latest reading also represents a steep fall from the 53.2 reading in September but is in line with predictions. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. A more detailed look at the survey shows the output sub-index was revised up slightly to 52.6 from the original estimate of 52.5, although this is still the lowest reading since Aug 2005. New orders were also revised up a notch to 50.7 from the flash reading of 50.6, but this still represents the lowest level since May 2005. On the prices front the input prices balance was upwardly revised to 59.0, the lowest reading since Aug 2005, from the earlier estimate of 58.9. Output prices came in at 53.2 compared to the flash reading of 53.1. The employment sub index was left unchanged at 51.1, the lowest reading since March 2006. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 in October from 52.6 in September, its lowest level since May 2005.

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