The Lastest Macroeconomic News
24.10.2018 15:14 Russia`s industrial output growth slows
Russia`s industrial output growth continued to slow down in September 2018 to 2.1% year-on-year from 2.7% seen in August and 3.9% in July, the latest data by Rosstat statistics agency shows. The industrial growth for 3Q18 slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.2% in 2Q18, amounting to 3% y/y in January-September 2018. The growth in September was largely supported by expanding extraction. "Significant improvements can be seen in the output of crude oil, which expanded on the decision by Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase volumes in September-December," VTB Capital commented. Mining and quarrying output growth accelerated to 6.9% y/y, driven by faster growth in oil production that increased to 4.9% y/y. At the same time manufacturing output shrank by 0.1% y/y in September compared with 2.2% y/y growth the month before, showing negative dynamics for the first time since December 2017. Manufacturing was still up 2.2% y/y in 3Q18 and 3.3% y/y in January-September.
17.10.2018 16:15 BAML poll: Investors gloomiest on world growth since 2008 financial crisis
Global investors have the most pessimistic outlook on the world economy since the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch`s monthly survey, which also showed a sharp fall in US equity allocations. The survey, released on Tuesday was conducted Oct. 5 to 11 and canvassed investors managing $646 billion. It showed investors remained overweight equities overall, though the 22 percent overweight was just marginally off the recent record low of 19 percent. But in a sign of caution, they held cash at 5.1 percent -- a net 36 percent overweight -- and well above than the 4.5 percent 10-year average. The poll showed that a net 38 percent of respondents expected the global economy to slow, the worst outlook on global growth since November 2008. A net 35 percent of participants identified trade war as the biggest risk. Investors were also gloomy on corporate earnings, with a fifth of respondents expecting global profits to deteriorate in the coming year, BAML said, noting that in January a net 39 percent of investors had predicted an improvement.
09.10.2018 14:13 IMF cuts its global growth forecast, citing trade disruptions
The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecasts as trade tensions between the U.S. and trading partners have started to hit economic activity worldwide. The IMF said the global economy is now expected to grow at 3.7 percent this year and next year - down 0.2 percentage points from an earlier forecast, according to the fund`s latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday. The report - published twice a year in April and October - is widely read by both public and private sectors globally for the IMF`s assessment of the world economy. The latest edition was released as thousands of finance officials and professionals gather in Bali, Indonesia, for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Earlier projections now appear to be "over-optimistic" given that risks from "further disruptions in trade policies" have become more prominent, said Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, in a prepared speech.
23.09.2018 15:51 Corruption costs $2.6 trillion or 5% of global GDP, says UN chief
The cost of corruption is at least $2.6 trillion, or five per cent of the global GDP, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said and urged the international community to work effectively against money laundering, tax evasion and illicit financial flows. According to the World Bank, businesses and individuals pay more than $1 trillion in bribes each year, the UN chief said during a session on tackling corruption for the sake of peace and international security. "Corruption is present in all the countries, rich and poor, the North and the South, developed and developing. Numbers show the startling scope of the challenge," Guterres said, citing the World Economic Forum estimates that corruption costs at least $2.6 trillion – or five per cent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
19.09.2018 14:36 Five Key Facts About the US Economy
President Donald Trump boasts the U.S economy is the "envy of the entire world," and polls suggest that voters view the health of the economy as second only to immigration in importance. Last month, the 10-year bull market -- a period during which prices rise, encouraging buying -- became the longest on record. Earlier this year, consumer spending rose to the highest level in more than six years. Personal consumption increased by 0.4 percent and sales of new homes have made significant gains since the housing crisis of the late 2000s.
15.09.2018 13:57 Russian central bank raises key rate for first time since 2014
The Russian Central Bank on Friday raised its key lending rate unchanged in six months by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5 percent on higher inflation expectations. It was the first rate hike since 2014 when a currency crisis broke out following Western sanctions. "Changes in external conditions observed since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors have significantly increased pro-inflationary risks," it said in a statement. The bank now forecasts Russia`s annual inflation to be 3.8-4.2 percent this year, compared to its previous forecast of 3.5-4.0 percent. Annual inflation will peak in the first six months of 2019, reaching 5.0-5.5 percent by the end of 2019, it said. In July, it said that the inflation could temporarily exceed the previously targeted 4 percent next year due to the increase in the value-added tax (VAT) to 20 percent from 18 percent in 2019.
08.09.2018 22:57 Russia is optimistic on growth but still far from where it wants to be
Russia has major challenges ahead in terms of improving its competitiveness on the world stage, but its current and former officials remain positive despite mounting Western sanctions. Russian Railways chairman and former Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy on Friday, admitted the slow pace of progress in the country of 144 million. "I think we`re far from where we want be … A long way to go, but we are getting more competitive with time," he told CNBC`s Steve Sedgwick, emphasizing the country`s plans to strengthen foreign partnerships and increase public and private investment into education and innovation. Economic growth in Russia hovers around 2 percent annually, a pickup from the 0.7 percent average of the last 10 years but a far cry from the 6.9 percent average of the decade before that and still a way from the current world average of around 3.5 percent. Its longstanding reliance on raw materials revenues, observers say, has hindered the modernization of its economy and looks set to continue to do so, despite President Vladimir Putin`s pledge to bring growth to 4 percent.
28.08.2018 20:41 NBF: Can Russia live up to its geopolitical ambitions?
Russia`s geopolitical influence is at its highest level since the end of the cold war and fall of the Soviet Union nearly thirty years ago, points out Angelo Katsoras, Research Analyst at National Bank Financial. “Russia has partitioned Georgia (2008), annexed Crimea (2014), stopped Ukraine from joining the European Union and NATO, and kept the Assad regime in power in Syria. Russia has also been accused of meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election by bombarding websites with fake news. “Though Russian President Vladimir Putin has proved a very shrewd geopolitical tactician, he faces many challenges. For one thing, Russia`s long-term structural economic weaknesses are at odds with its geopolitical ambitions. There is also the risk that the cost of these geopolitical successes may ultimately outweigh their benefits.”
20.08.2018 21:31 Rosstat: Russia`s GDP increases by 1.6 pct in H1
The Russian economy grew 1.6 percent year on year in the first half of 2018, Russia`s Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) said Friday, citing preliminary data. The figure is slightly lower than the estimate of the Russian Economic Development Ministry, which forecasted the economic growth in the first half of 2018 to be 1.7 percent. Rosstat previously recorded an increase of Russia`s GDP growth at 1.8 percent in the second quarter, higher than the 1.3 percent registered in the first quarter. In July, the Russian Central Bank raised its estimate for Russia`s GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 to 1.8 percent to 2.2 percent from the previous 1.0 percent to 1.4 percent, on account of the additional contribution by hosting the World Cup tournament.
12.08.2018 17:04 World GDP Growth Slowing
Over the course of 2017, one of the primary factors fueling investor optimism was the fact that, for the first time ever, global stocks rose in basically uninterrupted fashion, a sign of synchronized global growth that boded well for future prospects. Now that narrative is showing signs of unraveling, and while the US is seen as something of a haven, weakening trends abroad could pose another risk to Wall Street, which is already grappling with the geopolitical concern of trade uncertainty, MarketWatch reported. “We`re starting to see the end of the synchronized global growth that has prevailed over the last two years,” wrote Sara Potter, an associate director at FactSet who analyzes global markets. “While the US economy seems strong, growth in Europe and Japan is moderating, and emerging markets are under increasing economic and financial market pressure.” According to FactSet, which cited data from the International Monetary Fund, global GDP is expected to grow 3.9% in 2018 and hold at that level next year. The US is expected to grow 2.9% in 2018, an acceleration from the 2.2% expansion in 2017, and then cool slightly to 2.7% in 2019. FactSet`s own expectation, based on the mean estimate of analysts it polled, is that the US will grow 2.8% in 2018 and then slow to 2.4% in 2019.
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