The Lastest Macroeconomic News

14.02.2010 13:10 GDP increased by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU27 during the fourth quarter of 2009

GDP increased by 0.1% in both the euro area (EA16) and the EU27 during the fourth quarter of 2009, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2009, growth rates were +0.4% and +0.3% respectively. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 2.1% in the euro area and by 2.3% in the EU27 in the fourth quarter of 2009, after -4.0% and -4.3% respectively in the previous quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2009, US GDP increased by 1.4% compared with the previous quarter, after +0.6% in the third quarter. US GDP rose by 0.1% compared with the same quarter of the previous year (-2.6% in the previous quarter). Over the whole year 2009, GDP fell by 4.0% in the euro area and by 4.1% in the EU27. In December 2009 compared with November 2009, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 1.7% in the euro area (EA16) and by 1.9% in the EU272. In November production grew by 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. In December 2009 compared with December 2008, industrial production declined by 5.0% in the euro area and by 4.9% in the EU27. Compared with 2008, the average production index for 2009 fell by 14.9% in the euro area and by 13.9% in the EU27.

30.01.2010 16:41 U.S. GDP Grew By 5.7 percent In The 4th Quarter of 2009

The U.S. Department of Commerce released its preliminary 4th Quarter GDP calculation on Jan 29th. It looks pretty good. GDP grew by a whopping 5.7% annualized pace during the quarter, the fastest growth the U.S. has seen since 2003. That`s the second quarter of positive income growth, and significantly better than the 3rd quarter`s 2.2% growth. Let`s dig into the report. First, a disclaimer: 4th quarter GDP may not have been 5.7%. In fact, it`s very likely it wasn`t. This is just the first estimate, and there are two more revisions to come before the number is final. You may recall that 3rd quarter GDP started at 3.5% in its first estimate, only to be revised downward twice, to eventually settle at a much more mild 2.2% rate. So let`s look at what makes up the 4th quarter`s growth. As it turns out, personal consumption actually did worse in the 4th quarter than the prior. It made up 1.4%, versus 2.0% in the 3rd quarter. Within that, goods did worse than services, adding 0.6% and 0.8% growth, respectively. As for those goods, Auto sales actually brought down the quarter`s GDP by 0.6%, compared to adding 1.45% in the 3rd quarter. Gross private domestic investment played a huge role, accounting for 3.8% of the growth. That compares to a measly 0.5% rate in the 3rd quarter. The largest component comes from the change in real private inventories. It made up 3.4% of the 5.7% growth. That`s a vastly larger contribution than in the third quarter, when this component made up just 0.7%. Businesses didn`t liquidate their inventories as much in the 4th quarter as in the 3rd. This means that final sales made up the other approximately 2.2% of the 5.7% growth. Another thing to note about the investment contribution: it had more to do with nonresidential than residential fixed investment. Business investment added 0.3%, up from a decline of 0.2% in Q3. Meanwhile residential investment accounted for only 0.1% -- that`s down from a 0.4% contribution in the 3rd quarter. Net exports were positive, accounting for 0.5% of the quarter`s GDP. This is also better than Q3, when they resulted in a 0.8% decline. So this is good news, but, again, we don`t know what the final number will actually be. I would also suggest holding off on popping the champagne to celebrate a robust U.S. economy. Most economists predicted a healthy rate of GDP in Q4-2009, but expect that to decline from there to more moderate levels through 2010. And unemployment is also expected to hover near double-digits throughout the year.

23.01.2010 13:52 Russian industrial production plunged 10.8% in 2009 and rose 2.7% in December 2009

In December 2009 russian industrial production rose 2.7% a 12-month comparison but plunged 10.8% for all of 2009. Russian industry has been severely hit by the global economic crisis, with car production plummeting 59.4%, Rosstat said. Industrial production picked up again in November 2009, rising 5% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on a yearly basis. International ratings agency Fitch on Jan. 22 raised its outlook on the Russian economy to "stable" from "negative," saying it had greater confidence in Russia`s financial and economic prospects. Producer prices in the Russian Federation jumped 0.5% in December 2009 after a 2-month contraction and increased 13.9% in 2009, the statistical authority said in a press release. In December 2009 the Producer Price Index, in line with preliminary estimates, came in at 100.5% and 113.9% YTD (92.4% in December 2008 and 93% YTD)," said the press release. As reported earlier, Russias consumer prices grew 0.4% in December and 8.8% in 2009. Prices of businesses that extract mineral resources jumped 5.8% during the month and up 49.2% YTD. In addition, their crude prices rose 8.2%. December prices in the processing sector dropped 0.8% primarily because of a 6.3% slide in oil products. In addition, prices in the chemical industry rose 0.9% as industrial gas prices increased and pharmaceutical prices climbed 4.2%. As for metal production, ferroalloy output costs increased, except for those produced using blast-furnaces, by 17.3%, while lead, zinc and tin production outlays rose by 11.2%. Tariffs of businesses that produce and supply electric power, water fell 0.5% during the month.

19.01.2010 22:09 US industrial production rose 0.6% in December 2009

On the back of higher electricity and gas consumption amid a cold snap, industrial production rose 0.6% in December, the Federal Reserve said on Jan. 15. The December reading matched the 0.6% increase in November, which was initially reported at 0.8%. "Manufacturing production fell a modest 0.1% in December after posting strong 0.9% growth in November. Raw material industries continued to lead the gains as the beneficial impact of less inventory destocking boosted growth in these industries," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Chief Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI. "For the most part, manufacturing production is starting to exhibit a saw tooth pattern of strong growth followed the next month by a small decline because the pace of growth is decelerating. "The initial burst of growth reflected the rebound from a severe recession, but now, the basic fact is that consumers are impaired with debt, jobs are still declining, and nonresidential construction activity will decline most of the year," he added. "Fourth quarter manufacturing production increased at a 5.7% annual rate versus the third quarter. Unfortunately, a strong pace of manufacturing production growth cannot be maintained in a relatively weak economic recovery." For the final quarter as a whole, industrial production increased at an annual rate of 7%.

11.01.2010 21:58 Euro area GDP up by 0.4% and EU27 GDP up by 0.3% in Q3 2009

Euro area (EA16) GDP increased by 0.4% and EU271 GDP by 0.3% during the third quarter of 2009, compared with the previous quarter, according to second estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the second quarter of 2009, growth rates were -0.1% in the euro area and -0.3% in the EU27. In comparison with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP declined in the third quarter of 2009 by 4.0% in the euro area and by 4.3% in the EU27, after -4.8% and -5.0% respectively in the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2009, among Member States for which seasonally adjusted GDP data are available, Lithuania (6.1%) recorded the highest growth rate compared with the previous quarter, followed by Luxembourg (4.2%) and Slovakia (1.6%). In the third quarter of 2009, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27 (after +0.1% and -0.2% respectively in the previous quarter). Investments fell by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU27 (after -1.6% and -2.5%). Exports increased by 3.1% in the euro area and by 2.7% in the EU27 (after -1.2% and -1.4%). Imports increased by 3.0% in the euro area and by 2.9% in the EU27 (after -2.8% and -2.9%). Among the main partners of the EU, GDP increased by 0.6% in the US in the third quarter of 2009 (-0.2% in the previous quarter). In Japan GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2009 (+0.7% in the previous quarter). Compared with the third quarter of 2008, GDP declined by 2.6% in the US (-3.8% in the previous quarter) and decreased by 4.7% in Japan (-6.0% in the previous quarter).

22.12.2009 22:10 Russia`s industrial output rises 1.5 percent in November 2009

Russia`s industrial output in November increased for the first time since October 2008 at an annual rate of 1.5 percent, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said on Dec 15th. Industrial output also rose compared to October, by 2 percent, Rosstat said. The November result beat analysts` prediction that industrial production would fall 2.5 percent from the same month last year, the Interfax news agency reported. Rosstat said agriculture, which gained year-on-year 4.9 percent in November, drove the growth. But the sector slipped 1.8 percent in the first 11 months of this year. The Russian economy, heavily dependent on energy resources, has been mired in a deep economic downturn after commodity prices collapsed late last year. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin forecast early December that Russia`s gross domestic product would shrink by 8.5 to 8.7 percent this year, and its industrial production would tumble 13 percent.

16.12.2009 22:27 U.S. industrial production rises 0.8 percent in November 2009

U.S. industrial output rose firmly in November as the manufacturing sector extended a recovery that economists hope will help turn around the ailing labor market. Production climbed 0.8 percent, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday, well above forecasts for a 0.5 percent gain. The strides were powered in part by the automotive sector, and came despite a sharp drop in utility output. Capacity utilization, the amount of the nation`s industrial capacity being put to use, rose to 71.3 percent in November from a revised 70.6 in October, its highest level since last December but still well below the long-range average. The October production figure was revised to no change from an 0.1 percent gain. The data were the latest to confirm the U.S. economy is rebounding from its worst recession since the 1930s, helped by very low interest rates and a heavy dose of government stimulus.

12.12.2009 19:25 Japan`s Q3 2009 GDP growth revised down to 1.3 percent

Japan`s economy grew at a much slower rate than previously thought in the third quarter, fresh data showed, as the country struggles to emerge from a crushing recession weighed by a soaring yen. The world`s number two economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.3 percent in the July-September quarter, sharply down from the original estimate of 4.8 percent, the Cabinet Office said. It meant the economy -- which early this year emerged from its worst post-war recession -- expanded just 0.3 percent in the three months, compared with the initial estimate of 1.2 percent. The revision came as capital investment, the amount companies spend, was revised down to reveal a contraction of 2.8 percent from an original estimate of 1.6 percent growth, the Cabinet Office said. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama admitted the difficulty of navigating the economy out of deep stagnation and stressed the benefits of a new government stimulus package announced Dec 8th. His government announced a fresh stimulus package worth 274 billion dollars, with 80 billion dollars in direct spending, that includes environmental programmes, assistance for small businesses and help to local communities. Hatoyama has been criticised as being too slow to act, with the latest package seen as likely to have only a limited effect on the economy. Private economists on average expected the revised data to show annualised growth of 2.7 percent, with most saying the original estimate was too high.Japan`s economy has struggled as the yen strengthens against the greenback -- with it hitting a 14-year high around 84 to the dollar -- hurting exporters by making their products expensive and reducing overseas earnings when converted back into yen. The government last month declared the nation was in deflation, while consumer spending remained weak.

30.11.2009 21:07 Japanese industrial production rose 0.5 per cent in October 2009

Japanese industrial production rose 0.5 per cent in October when compared to the previous month, delivering a result that was much lower than economists had expected. Tokyo said the result marked the eighth month of gains, but the rise was much smaller than the 2.5 per cent increase that had been tipped by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Nikkei. The figure was also lower than the revised 2.1 per cent increase in September, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. Manufacturers polled by the ministry said they expected their output to rise 3.3 per cent in November and register an increase of 1 per cent in December. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to a six-month low of 5.1 percent last month, the statistics bureau said last week. The gauge has been declining since reaching a postwar high of 5.7 percent in July. Consumer prices excluding fresh food tumbled 2.2 percent, an eighth monthly drop.

22.11.2009 15:40 US Industrial Production Up 0.1% in October 2009; CapU at 70.7%

US industrial production rose for the fourth consecutive month in October, by 0.1%, less than the 0.4% economists were expecting, the Federal Reserve reported. The Fed also made a slight downward revision to September`s output gain, from 0.7% to 0.6%. Output, which now stands at a level of 98.6, is down 7.1% over the year. October`s increased output was due to a meager 0.3% increase in non-durable output, led entirely by gains in non-energy goods like chemicals. After three consecutive months of gains, durable output fell 1.4% in October, carried by a 2.0% decline in auto output. Within major industry groups, manufacturing output fell 0.1%, mining output fell 0.2%, while utilities jumped 1.6%. Capacity use in US factories rose to 70.7% in October, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Economists were expecting capacity use to rise to 70.8% from the 70.5% unrevised rate reported for September.

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