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World Economy Review - July 2017

RTS Index

RTS Index

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research have revised forecasts for world GDP growth in 2017 upward as several major economies exceed expectations for the year.

Global growth has been revised to 3.6% by the NIESR, while it has maintained its 2018 and long-term projections of 3.6% and 3.4% respectively.

In the report released by the research institute, strong performances from the Euro Area and Japan in particular drove the 2017 forecast higher.

Both areas have seen super-low interest rates in recent months and years, with the NIESR pointing towards this as a factor in their economic growth.

Recent data for several major economies point to a more significant pick-up in global growth this year than we projected in May. Among the advanced economies, the upward revisions have been most marked for the Euro Area and Japan, the report said.

The improvement in growth performance seems due partly to the highly accommodative monetary policies of recent years but also to a turnaround in the stance of fiscal policies since 2015.

A lessening of political instability in Europe was also referenced as a major reason behind the revision of the forecast, but the NIESR added it was still at the risk of further weakness owing to political events.

In the euro area, political uncertainty has been reduced by the French elections, but risks of financial instability remain, especially with an incomplete banking union. More broadly, economic recovery remains fragile and could be derailed by policy mistakes.


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The World Economy

World GDP Growth, %

World GDP Growth

The world economy can be evaluated in various ways, depending on the model used, and this valuation can then be represented in various ways (for example, in 2006 US dollars). It is inseparable from the geography and ecology of Earth, and is therefore somewhat of a misnomer, since, while definitions and representations of the "world economy" vary widely, they must at a minimum exclude any consideration of resources or value based outside of the Earth.
For example, while attempts could be made to calculate the value of currently unexploited mining opportunities in unclaimed territory in Antarctica, the same opportunities on Mars would not be considered a part of the world economy - even if currently exploited in some way - and could be considered of latent value only in the same way as uncreated intellectual property, such as a previously unconceived invention. Beyond the minimum standard of concerning value in production, use, and exchange on the planet Earth, definitions, representations, models, and valuations of the world economy vary widely.

It is common to limit questions of the world economy exclusively to Human economic activity, and the world economy is typically judged in monetary terms, even in cases in which there is no efficient market to help valuate certain goods or services, or in cases in which a lack of independent research or government cooperation makes establishing figures difficult. Typical examples are illegal drugs and prostitution, which by any standard are a part of the world economy, but for which there is by definition no legal market of any kind.

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Monthly Average
for July 2017

indicatorvaluechange, %
Dow Jones21576.391.21%
RTS Index1020.310.72%
RUR/USD rate59.602.92%
RUR/EUR rate68.675.65%
OIl (Brent), $/bl49.153.28%
Oil (WTI), $/bl46.703.30%
Gold, $/oz1236.22-1.91%

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