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World Economy Review - April 2018

Dow Jones Index

Dow Jones Index

The International Monetary Fund`s forecast of an accelerating global growth is too optimistic, according to Qatar National Bank. QNB expects a slowdown in the global economy to 3.6% in 2018.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecast an acceleration in global growth for 2018 to 3.9% from 3.8% in 2017. IMF has historically held a bias for optimistic growth forecasts, The Peninsula quoted the QNB report as saying.

The IMF has repeatedly revised down its forecasts with each release of the WEO until very recently.

We regard the IMF forecasts as too optimistic and expect a slowdown in the global economy to 3.6% in 2018. QNB Economics has therefore developed its own forecasts and we lay out below the four main reasons we expect the global economy to slow in 2018, QNB noted in its weekly economic commentary.

Listing out the reasons for a possible global slowdown, QNB analysts said: First, recent economic data suggests that the global economy has already begun to slow. The latest global Purchasing Managers Index survey, released at the beginning of April, was the weakest in 16 months.

While the reading of 53.3 is still in expansion territory (above 50), it is below the average reading in 2017 of 53.8. Additionally, recent indicators of growth in the world`s largest economy, the US also suggest a slowdown.

The Atlanta Fed produces an estimate of GDP in the US, based on the latest data, which points to growth of 2% in the first quarter of 2018, down from 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% for 2017 as whole.

Second, the C...

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The World Economy

World GDP Growth, %

World GDP Growth

The world economy can be evaluated in various ways, depending on the model used, and this valuation can then be represented in various ways (for example, in 2006 US dollars). It is inseparable from the geography and ecology of Earth, and is therefore somewhat of a misnomer, since, while definitions and representations of the "world economy" vary widely, they must at a minimum exclude any consideration of resources or value based outside of the Earth.
For example, while attempts could be made to calculate the value of currently unexploited mining opportunities in unclaimed territory in Antarctica, the same opportunities on Mars would not be considered a part of the world economy - even if currently exploited in some way - and could be considered of latent value only in the same way as uncreated intellectual property, such as a previously unconceived invention. Beyond the minimum standard of concerning value in production, use, and exchange on the planet Earth, definitions, representations, models, and valuations of the world economy vary widely.

It is common to limit questions of the world economy exclusively to Human economic activity, and the world economy is typically judged in monetary terms, even in cases in which there is no efficient market to help valuate certain goods or services, or in cases in which a lack of independent research or government cooperation makes establishing figures difficult. Typical examples are illegal drugs and prostitution, which by any standard are a part of the world economy, but for which there is by definition no legal market of any kind.

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Monthly Average
for April 2018

indicatorvaluechange, %
Dow Jones24304.21-1.04%
RTS Index1154.59-8.39%
RUR/USD rate60.596.09%
RUR/EUR rate74.425.70%
OIl (Brent), $/bl71.747.38%
Oil (WTI), $/bl66.315.51%
Gold, $/oz1334.740.76%

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